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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1ASEAN’s risk travels through shared seas, rivers and smoke
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Systemic
    3. 2.3 Climate forcing
    4. 2.4 Health
    5. 2.5 Energy
    6. 2.6 Water
    7. 2.7 Food
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

The magnitude 7.7 earthquake near Mandalay on 28 March 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar and at least 63 in Thailand, injured at least 5,106 in Myanmar and damaged an estimated 55,000 homes, with damage valued at US$1.9 billion.

Figure 2.1Deaths in the March 2025 earthquake (at least)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Myanmar3,791
Thailand63

Source: US Geological Survey17. Thailand’s deaths were mainly in the north and the Bangkok area. The record also reports damage to high-rise buildings in Ho Chi Minh City.

Implication

A single rupture of about 500 km on the Sagaing Fault was felt across four countries. Health services, housing, power and water failed in Myanmar, and building damage reached Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. Response and insurance therefore need to be read across borders17.

What would move it

Reconstruction progress, the AHA Centre’s response records and any member-level loss series would each move this finding. Losses by member are not bound21.

2.2Systemic

  1. EstimatedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-001

    The eleven ASEAN member states had about 700.3 million people in 2025 and a combined output of about US$4.27 trillion at current prices; Indonesia held 40.8% of the people and 33.9% of the output.1226

  2. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong dry season in which fire haze, urban heat and power demand coincide across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait. §9.3

2.3Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Asia’s 2025 mean temperature was 0.96 °C above the 1991–2020 average, marine heatwaves covered more than 10 million km² of ocean in July to September, and prolonged flooding in Viet Nam caused at least 200 deaths and US$1.9 billion of losses.16

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    The magnitude 7.7 earthquake near Mandalay on 28 March 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar and at least 63 in Thailand, with damage estimated at US$1.9 billion.17

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

    Cyclone Senyar, formed in the Malacca Strait in November 2025, brought severe flooding to parts of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia; an interim Indonesian count stood at 174 deaths in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra.1625

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

    The haze alert for southern ASEAN was raised to Level 3 on 26 August 2026, after 287 and 190 hotspots in Kalimantan and 65 and 81 in Sumatra on 24 and 25 August, and Sumatra recorded its highest July hotspot count in five years in 2025.4823

  5. EstimatedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    The eleven states emitted about 3,228 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024; Indonesia emitted 41.0%, Viet Nam 18.1% and Thailand 13.1%.5

2.4Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006

    Fine-particle exposure in 2023 ranged from 7.6 µg/m³ in Brunei Darussalam to 35.1 µg/m³ in Myanmar, and air-pollution deaths in 2019 reached 202.8 per 100,000 in the Philippines.612

2.5Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

    In 2024 fossil fuels supplied 85.1% of Indonesia’s electricity and 70.5% came from coal, while renewables supplied 15.6% of the region’s primary energy in 2022 against a 23% target for 2025.818

2.6Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

    Renewable internal freshwater was 106 m³ per person in Singapore and 25,190 m³ in Lao PDR in 2022, and 30.5% of Indonesians used safely managed drinking water in 2024.1013

2.7Food

  1. EstimatedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-010

    Ten reporting states produced about 234.2 Mt of cereals in 2024, and agriculture employed 68.6% of workers in Lao PDR and 45.0% in Myanmar in 2025.11

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Forest covered 50.7% of Indonesia’s land in 2024 and terrestrial protected areas covered from 4.6% of land in Singapore to 39.9% in Brunei Darussalam in 2025.9

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), cereal yield, agricultural land, agriculture value added and employment in agriculture (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2025 (employment). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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