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Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables4 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1ASEAN’s risk travels through shared seas, rivers and smoke
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
an extended dry season with widespread fires, high urban heat and high power demand
Analogues
haze alerts of July 2025 and August 20264823; fine-particle exposure6; earthquake lifeline failure for cascading infrastructure effects17
Interventions
none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → HLT

    smoke raises fine-particle exposure and clinic demand downwind of the fires

    haze 2025 and 20264823

  2. 2

    CLI → ENE

    heat raises cooling demand while smoke reduces solar output

    no analogue bound

  3. 3

    ENE → INF

    peak demand meets constrained fuel and grid capacity

    no analogue bound

  4. 4

    INF → all

    a power or water failure spreads to services

    earthquake 202517

  5. 5

    HLT → FIN

    losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

    loss series not bound

  6. 6

    FIN → recovery

    rebuilding slows where cover is thin

    loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01 would travel through ASEAN’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to healthSmoke raises fine-particle exposure and clinic demand downwind of the fires. Analogue or source: haze 2025 and 2026 [48] [23].Edition REG-ASN, scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01, step 1
02 Climate to energyHeat raises cooling demand while smoke reduces solar output. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition REG-ASN, scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01, step 2
03 Energy to infrastructurePeak demand meets constrained fuel and grid capacity. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition REG-ASN, scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to allA power or water failure spreads to services. Analogue or source: earthquake 2025 [17].Edition REG-ASN, scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01, step 4
05 Health to financeLosses fall on households, insurers and budgets. Analogue or source: loss series not bound.Edition REG-ASN, scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01, step 5
06 Finance to recoveryRebuilding slows where cover is thin. Analogue or source: loss series not bound.Edition REG-ASN, scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: ASEAN 2026, scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01 (2026); ASEAN 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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