Readings from the other desks

The regional baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables36 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of ASEAN risk: heat, flood, smoke and earthquake act on water, energy and health together. Evidence is strongest for population, output, emissions and electricity mix, and weakest for losses, cross-border power flows and the condition of nature.

CLI-002 · CLI-005 · ENE-007 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood, a smoke day or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how shared seas, rivers and an airshed make one member’s event another member’s problem.

CLI-003 · HLT-006 · CLI-005

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Flood and earthquake loss series by member are not bound, which shows where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

CLI-003 · SYS-012

NEXUS

Synthesis

ASEAN publishes strong series on output and energy and a clear haze alert system. The 2027 programme should bind loss, cross-border power and land-use emissions data, test the dry season scenario, and measure the condition of nature.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for ASEAN. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
ASEAN regional pathway	regional pathway: hubs named in the registry	regional Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Smoke, floods and quakes do not stop at a frontier. The baseline treats the shared airshed, river and sea as the units of analysis, with member states as the places where the effects land.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Risk crosses the border first

The registry names two member editions for ASEAN. The association has eleven member states. This edition uses totals for all eleven only as a reference group, and never joins them to the region on a code alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

An association is not a region

Electricity mixes range from 85.1% fossil in Indonesia to 75.5% hydropower in Lao PDR. Security depends on the mix, the grid links and the climate that drives both, not on volume alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Supply security is a design question

Several data that matter most for risk, including cross-border power flows, final disaster tolls and land-use emissions, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Gaps are findings too

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 regional readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Regional risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five regional system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	editions in programme as listed in the series registry	regional and sector baselines
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution³¹	ASEAN	ASEAN	IN FORCE	haze
ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response³²	ASEAN	ASEAN	IN FORCE	disaster response
ASEAN Charter³³	ASEAN	ASEAN	IN FORCE	institutions
Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin³⁴	MRC member countries	Lower Mekong	IN FORCE	shared river
ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation, Phase II 2021–2025¹⁸	ASEAN energy ministers	ASEAN	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	energy targets
Paris Agreement³⁹	UNFCCC	international	IN FORCE	emissions
Sendai Framework 2015–2030⁴⁰	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
Kunming-Montreal Framework⁴¹	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30

Changed since 2024

Timor-Leste was admitted to ASEAN on 26 October 2025; its adoption of ASEAN agreements is not read here²⁶
The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook was published on 26 September 2024 and endorsed at the 42nd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting¹⁸
The 9th ASEAN Energy Outlook was listed as published in October 2026²⁰

To watch in 2027

The energy plan of action for 2026 to 2030¹⁸
The ASEAN anticipatory action protocol, in draft in October 2026²¹
Implementation of the haze agreement in the 2027 dry season³¹

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about ASEAN’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Pörtner et al. (eds.)⁴²	assessment	2022	context	impacts and adaptation in Asia
Zscheischler et al.⁴³	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
McElwee et al. (eds.)⁴⁴	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Asia climate assessment¹⁶	agency assessment	2026	supports	climate record
Earthquake event record¹⁷	agency record	2025	supports	hazard

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
State of the Climate in Asia 2025¹⁶	WMO	2026	supports	temperature, floods
Mandalay earthquake record¹⁷	USGS	2025	supports	earthquake
8th ASEAN Energy Outlook¹⁸¹⁹	ASEAN Centre for Energy	2024	supports	energy targets
Haze alerts and reviews⁴⁸²³²⁴	ASMC	2026	supports	haze
Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024³⁷	IEA	2024	context	energy demand

Table 6.7Official statistics and regional sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Population and national accounts¹²	World Bank	2025	supports	profile
Economic outlook³	IMF	2026	supports	macro context
Human development⁴	UNDP	2023	supports	profile
Emissions and electricity⁵⁷⁸	World Bank	2024	supports	climate, energy
Water, land, agriculture and health⁹ to¹⁵	World Bank	2024	supports	systems

Table 6.8Industry, grid and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN³⁸	IRENA	2024	context	capacity
Statistical yearbook³⁰	ASEAN Secretariat	2023	context	statistics
Mekong State of the Basin³⁵	MRC	2023	context	shared basin
Flood mapping for Sumatra²⁵	Sentinel Asia	2025	supports	flood event
Regional disaster response²¹	AHA Centre	2026	context	response

Where the evidence agrees

Asia is warming and heat, flood and marine heat records are rising¹⁶
Compound and sequential hazards load health and services together⁴²⁴³
Fine-particle exposure in the region is well above levels seen in high-income members⁶

Where it is unsettled

How much of the emissions picture changes when land use is counted, which the series read here excludes⁵
How fast the energy mix can move while demand grows 2.6 times by 2050 in the baseline scenario¹⁸
How many deaths in each season are attributable to smoke and heat⁶¹²

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 2005. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), Charter of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 2007. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin, 1995 (named on the commission page opened [27]; text not opened). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 1995. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (ed.), Paris Agreement, 2015. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter on Asia. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), ACE to guide regional energy transition through the launch of the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (press release, 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for December 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 (page refused). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook, October 2026: real GDP growth, consumer price inflation, GDP in US dollars and current account balance, DataMapper series for the ASEAN states (2025 estimates and 2026 and 2027 projections). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4United Nations Development Programme (ed.), Human Development Report 2025: composite indices time series (Human Development Index, life expectancy, schooling, gross national income per capita, 2023 values for the ASEAN states). UNDP, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable energy consumption share of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS) and renewable electricity output share (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021 (2022 for Lao PDR and Timor-Leste final energy). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at the international line (SI.POV.DDAY) and prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (undernourishment) and 2017 to 2025 (poverty, varies by state). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN, third edition (page refused). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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