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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables5 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1ASEAN’s risk travels through shared seas, rivers and smoke
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Strong dry season: fire haze across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a strong dry season load air quality, health services and power systems across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait?

    INI-ASN-CLI-01 · compound dry season; first output: dependency graph for the southern airshed.

  2. A-02

    How is the energy transition proceeding in systems that still rely on coal and gas?

    INI-ASN-ENE-02 · energy transition and supply; first output: power-mix and capacity register.

  3. A-03

    How do flows on the Mekong reach farming, fisheries and power?

    INI-ASN-WAT-03 · shared rivers; first output: basin performance note for the Lower Mekong.

  4. A-04

    How much of the fine-particle burden comes from smoke, and how many deaths follow?

    INI-ASN-HLT-04 · haze and health; first output: attribution baseline for two members.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood and earthquake losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

    INI-ASN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

  6. A-06

    How are forests and coastal ecosystems changing, and how is condition measured across members?

    INI-ASN-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

  7. A-07

    How exposed are rice and staple supplies to concurrent drought, heat and price shocks?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-ASN-CLI-01Compound dry season: smoke, heat and powerInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-ASN-ENE-02Energy transition and supply securityInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-ASN-WAT-03Shared rivers and the MekongInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-ASN-HLT-04Haze and health attributionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-ASN-FIN-05Flood and earthquake protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-ASN-CLI-01aSouthern airshed compound dry season dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-ASN-2027-01Smoke, heat and power Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The ASEAN regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read ASEAN as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    National Foundries

    continuous national evidence environments

    PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

  2. 02

    National Models and Portfolios

    each country as a system of systems

    CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  3. 03

    Quarterly national reports

    State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

    BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

  4. 04

    Regional aggregation

    ASEAN as one of ten regional clusters

    THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

  5. 05

    Global sector and strategic models

    GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

    49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

  6. 06

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

  7. 07

    Global Report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 regional annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-ASN-2027-01 · Smoke, heat and power Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
SYS-001 · population and outputpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-003 · earthquake 2025INI-ASN-FIN-05protection gap tablePUBLIC
CLI-005 · haze alertsINI-ASN-CLI-01compound dry season graphPUBLIC
HLT-006 · fine particlesINI-ASN-HLT-04haze and health attributionPUBLIC
ENE-007 · electricity mixINI-ASN-ENE-02energy transition and supplyPUBLIC
WAT-009 · freshwater and drinking waterINI-ASN-WAT-03shared riversPUBLIC
BIO-011 · forest and protectionINI-ASN-BIO-01condition indicatorPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-ASN-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Haze alert levels and hotspotsASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centredaily to monthlyCLI-005
Earthquake and tsunami recordsUS Geological Surveyevent-drivenCLI-003
Flood and landslide mappingSentinel Asiaevent-drivenCLI-004
Population and national accountsWorld Bank and IMFannualprofile
Greenhouse gas seriesWorld Bank and national inventoriesannualCLI-008
Electricity and energy outlookASEAN Centre for EnergyannualENE-007
Mekong flowsMekong River Commissionweekly in seasonWAT-009

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-ASN-001Earthquake of March 202517CORROBORATEDCLI · INFrisk object RSK-ASN-CLI-004
SIG-ASN-002Haze alerts of 2025 and 20264823CORROBORATEDCLI · HLTresearch question A-04
SIG-ASN-003Floods of 20251625CORROBORATEDCLI · WATresearch question A-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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