Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

13 min read0 figures13 tables15 notesNR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Eleven-state population, 2025	sum of eleven national series	700.3 million
(2)	Eleven-state output at current prices, 2025	sum of eleven national series	US$4.27 trillion
(3)	Eleven-state emissions excluding land use, 2024	sum of eleven national series	3,228.3 Mt CO₂e
(4)	Indonesia’s share of eleven-state emissions, 2024	1,323.8 ÷ 3,228.3	41.0%
(5)	Indonesia’s share of eleven-state population, 2025	285.7 ÷ 700.3	40.8%
(6)	Ten-state cereal production, 2024	sum of ten national series; Singapore not reported	234.2 Mt

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-ASN-REGIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent ASEAN as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

11strong

documented within one season

5moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-REG-ASN-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-REG-ASN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 regional annual
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Regional System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population	2025	Oct 2026	annual	annual
National accounts	2025	Oct 2026	annual	annual
Economic projections	2026 to 2027	Oct 2026	twice a year	April 2027
Human development	2023	not recorded	annual	annual
Greenhouse gases	2024	Oct 2026	annual	annual
Electricity mix	2021 to 2024	Oct 2026	annual	annual
Energy outlook, 8th edition	2022 base	Sep 2024	not recorded	the 9th edition is listed
Asia climate assessment	2025	Jun 2026	annual	annual
Haze alert level	Oct 2026	29 Oct 2026	continuous	continuous

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate and hazards	PARTIAL	final tolls; land-use emissions
Energy	PARTIAL	9th outlook figures; cross-border flows
Water	THIN	Mekong flow series
Food	THIN	staple stocks and prices
Health	PARTIAL	dengue, malaria and heat deaths
Biodiversity	THIN	marine protection; condition
Finance	THIN	insured and uninsured losses; trade
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Final deaths and affected population of the November 2025 Cyclone Senyar floods in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia	national disaster agencies and the AHA Centre²⁵²¹	the page read gave an interim count for Indonesia that was still rising; no final national totals were retrieved
Hotspot counts and daily smoke readings by member for the 2025 and 2026 haze seasons	ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre monthly reviews²³²⁴	the reviews show counts in charts only, with no transcribed values
Emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry for ASEAN states	national inventories submitted to the UNFCCC⁵	not retrieved; the World Bank series read excludes land use
Headline figures of the 9th ASEAN Energy Outlook	ASEAN Centre for Energy²⁰	the publication is listed as released in October 2026; its content was not read
ASEAN installed power capacity and renewable share for 2023 to 2025	ASEAN Centre for Energy and IRENA²⁰³⁸	the outlook pages read give a 2022 base and projections only; the IRENA page was refused
Cross-border power flows and capacity on the ASEAN Power Grid	ASEAN Centre for Energy, grid operators²⁰	the page lists the programme without figures
Intra-ASEAN trade, foreign direct investment and food trade	ASEAN Secretariat statistical series³⁰	the yearbook page returned no content on 2026-11-03
Flood damage and insured loss series for 2025, by member	national agencies, insurers and reinsurers²¹	not retrieved; the Viet Nam loss in¹⁶ is a single-country estimate
Mekong flow, fisheries and drought indicators for 2025 and 2026	Mekong River Commission³⁵	the State of the Basin report was not opened; weekly bulletins were not read
Heat-related deaths and extreme temperature records for Southeast Asia in 2025	WMO full report¹⁶ and national health ministries	only the media release was read, and it carries Asia-wide temperature figures only
Staple stocks, prices and export restrictions, including rice	FAO and national agencies	the FAOSTAT query returned no values
Dengue and malaria burden by member	WHO Global Health Observatory	the data service returned a server error on 2026-11-03
Marine protected-area share, mangrove and coral condition	World Bank, UNEP-WCMC and national agencies⁹	not retrieved; only terrestrial protection was read
Capability rungs: early warning for floods, reserves, response, recovery, social protection, infrastructure, workforce	civil protection agencies, weather services, utilities and ministries	not reviewed by evidence close

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Issued by the World Bank. Annual, 2025 values, source database updated 8 October 2026. Role: binds the population figures in the profile and regional reading. The eleven-state sum is Nexus arithmetic.

EVD-ASN-001

Population, total, eleven states¹

Issued by the regional meteorological centre. Event record, the southern ASEAN alert of 26 August 2026 with hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August. Role: binds the haze alert finding. The alerts list [22] carries an entry dated 29 October 2026; it is post-close, context only, and binds no claim.

EVD-ASN-002

Alert page of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre⁴⁸

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-ASN-001	EVD-ASN-002
Completeness	eleven states for population; ten for cereals	southern and northern ASEAN entries
Timeliness	within a year of the reference year	dated entries, current at access
Revision	revised by the issuer; not tracked here	entries replaced by later alerts
Method transparency	published methodology	published scale and criteria
External validation	not assessed in this edition	not assessed in this edition

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

9th ASEAN Energy Outlook²⁰ : regional capacity, mix and scenarios
ASEAN statistical series³⁰ : trade, investment and food trade
Mekong River Commission³⁵ : flow and fisheries indicators
Reports Foundational Edition⁴⁵ and the global baseline⁴⁶ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
ACE	ASEAN Centre for Energy
AHA Centre	ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management
AMS	ASEAN Member States
APAEC	ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation
ASEAN	Association of Southeast Asian Nations
ASMC	ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
HDI	Human Development Index
IMF	International Monetary Fund
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
MRC	Mekong River Commission
PM2.5	fine particulate matter of 2.5 micrometres or less
UNDP	United Nations Development Programme
USGS	United States Geological Survey
WMO	World Meteorological Organization

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the regional indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-ASN-HAZE-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Member-country notes	atlas cards for every member country	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct: annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry
Unit: Mt CO₂e
Scope: calendar year, AR5 global warming potentials
Source: World Bank greenhouse gas series⁵
Revision: revised by the issuer; not tracked here
Known limits: omits land-use emissions, which national inventories report separately

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for December 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN, third edition (page refused). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the drafting desk). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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