Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

East Asia, as the series reads it, is three member countries: China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. They hold about 1,581.6 million people and about USD 25.8 trillion of annual output, of which China holds 88.9% of the people and 75.6% of the output12. China’s population fell by 3.39 million in 2025 to 1,404.89 million on the national count5. Japan reached 994 Mt CO₂e of net greenhouse gas emissions in FY2024, 28.7% below FY20136. China’s clean energy supplied 30.4% of total energy consumption in 2025, while coal supplied 51.4%5. Japan and the Republic of Korea import 87.3% and 83.2% of their energy, against 24.0% for China24. Japan, China and the Republic of Korea each recorded their hottest summer in 20258. The Republic of Korea suffered its largest known wildfires in March 2025, with about 48,238 hectares burned and at least 30 deaths12. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a regional dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and ranks no member country.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the East Asia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. The three members emitted about 17,268 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use, of which China 90.0%. Japan’s own net figure for FY2024 was 994 Mt.46

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. China’s clean energy share was 30.4% in 2025; Japan targets 40% to 50% renewables in power by FY2040; the Republic of Korea targets 29.2% renewables by 2038.51415

    What energy transition is under way?Reported

  3. Japan and the Republic of Korea import more than 80% of their energy. Import volumes of LNG by member are not bound for China and Japan.2432

    How exposed is fuel supply?Reported

  4. All three members had their hottest summer in 2025; Korean wildfires burned about 48,238 hectares.812

    How severe were recent heat and wildfire?Reported

  5. Japan 30.0%, Republic of Korea 20.3% and China 14.9% aged 65 or over in 2025.3

    How old are the populations?Reported

  6. Ten typhoons made landfall in China in 2025. Losses in Japan and the Republic of Korea are not bound.1333

    How much is typhoon exposure?Reported

  7. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound in this edition.11

    Who carries disaster losses?Not bound

  8. A hot summer with a typhoon landfall, power demand and imported fuel stress. SCN-EAS-HEAT-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

Natural disasters affected 67.03 million people in China in 2025 and left 763 dead or missing; ten typhoons made landfall in China and the western North Pacific season had 27 named cyclones.

Figure S.1Deaths in 2025 disasters and typhoons
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
China, dead or missing, all natural disasters763
Typhoon season, region, more than700

Sources: Ministry of Emergency Management as reported11; WMO on the Typhoon Committee13. The typhoon figure covers the whole western North Pacific and South China Sea region, including states outside the member set.

A typhoon is a regional event. The same track crosses the sea between members and reaches ports, power and supply chains in more than one country. Warning exchange, port continuity and insurance therefore need to be read across borders13.

S.4At a glance

1,581.6million

people in the three members, 20251

25.8USD trillion

combined output at current prices, 20252

17,268Mt CO₂e

combined emissions excluding land use, 20244

30.4%

clean energy share of China’s energy consumption, 20255

87.3%

Japan net energy imports as a share of energy use, 202424

3members

China, Japan, Republic of Korea

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of East Asian risk: heat, storm and fuel supply act on energy, health and food together.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heat day, a typhoon warning or a price change.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The members publish strong statistics on population, emissions and energy.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of East Asia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across China, Japan, Republic of Korea. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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