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Systems and sectors at baseline

8 min read0 figures2 tables24 notesNR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Renewable internal freshwater per person, Republic of Korea

1,255m³

China 1,992 m³ and Japan 3,437 m³. The Republic of Korea withdrew 45.0% of its internal resources.

Reported2022World Bank1920

ENE · Energy

China clean energy share of total energy consumption

30.4%

Coal supplied 51.4%. Wind and solar capacity reached 1,842 GW at the end of 2025.

Reported2025NBS China5

FOO · Food

Japan food self-sufficiency, calorie basis

38%

Unchanged for four years. The production-value basis was 64%. The target is 45% for FY2030.

ReportedFY2024Jiji Press via Adnkronos16

HLT · Health

Population aged 65 or over, Japan

30.0%

The Republic of Korea reached 20.3% and China 14.9%.

Reported2025World Bank3

BIO · Biodiversity

Terrestrial area protected, Japan

29.5%

The Republic of Korea 17.4% and China 15.6%. Condition of habitats is not bound.

Reported2024World Bank21

SYS · Cross-system

People affected by natural disasters in China

67.03million

763 dead or missing and 241.6 billion yuan of direct losses.

Reported2025Ministry of Emergency Management as reported11

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATRenewable freshwater per person 1,255 to 3,437 m³ in 2022; the Republic of Korea withdrew 45.0% of its internal resources1920.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 5
ENEChina clean energy 30.4% of consumption in 2025; Japan and the Republic of Korea import more than 80% of energy524.ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOJapan calorie self-sufficiency 38% in FY202416. Grain output of China is 714.88 million tonnes in 20255. Other members not bound.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 4
HLTAgeing: 30.0%, 20.3% and 14.9% aged 65 or over in 20253. Heat deaths not bound27.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 4
BIOProtected: 15.6% to 29.5% of land in 202421. Condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIHottest summer on record in all three members in 2025; 67.03 million people affected by disasters in China811.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFTyphoon landfalls reach ports and grids; grid and port continuity not bound13.INF → allInferred EQL 3
FINInsured and uninsured disaster losses by member not bound; China direct losses 241.6 billion yuan11.FIN ← CLINot bound EQL 1
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel trade between members not bound at baseline32.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDLNG and coal trade routes shape import exposure of Japan and the Republic of Korea1424.TRD → allInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound heat, typhoon and fuel supply stresshot summer with a landfallPARTIAL
GS-01Waterwithdrawals 45.0% of internal resources in the Republic of Korea20drought and heatPARTIAL
GS-02Energyclean energy 30.4% in China5; imports above 80% in Japan and the Republic of Korea24fuel supply and peak demandGOOD
GS-03FoodJapan self-sufficiency 38%16import and heat shocksTHIN
GS-04Healthageing 30.0% in Japan3heat load on servicesPARTIAL
GS-05Financeloss series not boundprotection gapTHIN
GS-06Developmentoutput USD 25.8 trillion combined2not boundTHIN
GS-07ClimateJapan emissions 28.7% below FY20136; targets filed363738heat, storm and fireGOOD
GS-08DisasterChina 67.03 million affected11; Nankai estimate not read40compound and sequential eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructuretyphoon landfalls reported13port and grid continuityTHIN
GS-10Citiesnot read at regional levelurban heatTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityprotected area shares published21condition not boundPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationWMO assessment published8continuity of recordsGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policyenergy plans and carbon neutrality law141539coordination across membersPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencecompound-event and nexus literature454647translation to membersPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Japan (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040 (taken from the draft Japan national edition and memory; figures not used here). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 (taken from memory of the late 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Damage estimate for a Nankai Trough megaquake, revised 2025 (taken from the draft Japan national edition; figures not used here). Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis, 2021. Republic of Korea. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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