Readings from the other desks

The regional baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables35 notesNR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of East Asian risk: heat, storm and fuel supply act on energy, health and food together. Evidence is strongest for population, emissions and the national energy statistics, and weakest for losses, fuel stocks and the condition of nature.

CLI-001 · CLI-011 · ENE-006 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heat day, a typhoon warning or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how shared seas and shared fuel markets make one member’s event another member’s problem.

CLI-001 · HLT-009 · ENE-006

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence matters. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

CLI-011 · SYS-012

NEXUS

Synthesis

The members publish strong statistics on population, emissions and energy. The 2027 programme should bind loss, fuel-stock and trade data, test the hot summer with a landfall, and measure the condition of nature.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for East Asia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
East Asia regional pathway	regional pathway: hubs named in the registry	regional Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Typhoons, heat domes and marine heat do not stop at a coast. The baseline treats the shared sea and the shared storm track as units of analysis, with member countries as the places where the effects land.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Weather crosses the sea first

The registry names three members for East Asia. Other places in the geography of East Asia are not members of this edition and are not read here. No union or bloc shares the region code, so there is no reference group.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Three members, one region

Japan and the Republic of Korea import most of their energy while China imports about a quarter. Security depends on diversity of routes and stocks, not on volume alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Supply security is a design question

Several data that matter most for risk, including heat deaths, fuel stocks and losses by member, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Gaps are findings too

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 regional readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Regional risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five regional system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	editions in programme as listed in the series registry	regional and sector baselines
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement, 2015⁵¹	UNFCCC parties	international	IN FORCE	climate
China nationally determined contribution for 2035³⁶	China	China	FILED 2025	climate target
Japan nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040³⁷	Japan	Japan	FILED 2025	climate target
Republic of Korea nationally determined contribution for 2035³⁸	Republic of Korea	Republic of Korea	FILED 2025	climate target
Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality³⁹	Republic of Korea	Republic of Korea	IN FORCE	climate law
Japan 7th Strategic Energy Plan¹⁵	Japan	Japan	ADOPTED 2025	power mix
Korea 11th Basic Plan for electricity¹⁴	Republic of Korea	Republic of Korea	ADOPTED	power mix
Sendai Framework 2015–2030⁴³	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
Kunming-Montreal Framework⁴⁴	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30

Changed since 2024

The Republic of Korea’s 2035 target was filed in late 2025³⁸
Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan was adopted in February 2025¹⁵
China filed its 2035 target in 2025³⁶

To watch in 2027

Annual progress of the Korean 11th Basic Plan¹⁴
Japan’s FY2040 power mix against the plan¹⁵
China’s first national inventory cut against its 2035 target³⁶

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about East Asia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)⁴⁵	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)⁴⁷	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁶	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
WMO Asia assessment⁸	agency assessment	2026	supports	regional climate
Sendai Framework⁴³	framework	2015	context	risk reduction

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
State of the Climate in Asia 2025⁸	WMO	2026	supports	heat, sea, fire
Typhoon Committee facts¹³³³	WMO and committee	2026	supports	typhoons
China Climate Bulletin 2025⁹	CMA, as reported	2026	supports	China climate
Korea climate summary 2025¹⁰	KMA, as reported	2026	supports	Korea climate
Japan climate summary²⁶	JMA	2026	context	Japan climate

Table 6.7Official statistics and regional sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
World Development Indicators¹²³⁴	World Bank	2026	supports	profile
Water and air series¹⁸¹⁹²⁰	World Bank	2026	supports	water, air
Communiqué for 2025⁵	NBS China	2026	supports	China profile
Emissions FY2024⁶	Ministry of the Environment of Japan	2026	supports	climate
Energy plans¹⁴¹⁵	trade.gov and Enerdata	2026	supports	power mix

Table 6.8Industry, grid and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Global Energy Review³⁰	IEA	2026	context	energy
Renewable capacity statistics³¹	IRENA	2026	context	capacity
LNG annual report³²	GIIGNL	2026	context	fuel trade
China water bulletin³⁴	Ministry of Water Resources	2026	context	water
Korea inventory³⁵	GIR Korea	2026	context	emissions

Where the evidence agrees

Heat, wildfire and storm records are rising across the region⁸⁹¹⁰
Compound and sequential hazards load health and services together⁴⁵⁴⁶
Energy import exposure differs sharply between members²⁴

Where it is unsettled

How large China’s 2025 emissions change was on the national inventory basis⁵⁷³⁶
How fast Japan and the Republic of Korea can raise low-carbon output against their plans¹⁴¹⁵
How many heat deaths remain unrecorded²⁷

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

51UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Paris Agreement. UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Japan (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040 (taken from the draft Japan national edition and memory; figures not used here). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 (taken from memory of the late 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis, 2021. Republic of Korea. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Annual climate summary for 2025 (the file could not be read as text; values in search summaries were not used). JMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, µg per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report of Korea (latest submission; not retrieved). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Carbon Brief (ed.), Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 21 months (published 12 February 2026). Carbon Brief, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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