Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables23 notesNR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The three member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. No union or bloc shares the region code in the registry, so there is no reference group.

1,581.6million

people in the three members, 20251

17,268Mt CO₂e

emissions excluding land use, 20244

25.8USD trillion

output at current prices, 20252

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
Chinapopulation 1,406.6 million (national count 1,404.89 million); emissions 15,536.1 Mt; clean energy 30.4% and coal 51.4% of consumption; 15.6% of land protected; 67.03 million affected by disasters1451121Reported
Japanpopulation 123.4 million; net emissions 994 Mt (FY2024); 30.0% aged 65 or over; food self-sufficiency 38%; 29.5% of land protected; energy imports 87.3% of use136162124Reported
Republic of Koreapopulation 51.7 million; emissions 668.2 Mt; nuclear 31.7% and renewables 10.6% of power in 2024; fertility rate 0.8; wildfires burned 48,238 hectares in 202514121417Reported

Couplings across members

  • CLI → ENE across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
  • TRD → ENE through shared LNG markets
  • HLT ← CLI heat across Japan and the Republic of Korea
  • FIN ← CLI losses carried by insurers across borders

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • member emissions on one national basis
  • disaster loss and heat death series by member
  • LNG imports of China and Japan

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared seas, storm tracks and fuel markets carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

27cyclones

named in the western North Pacific, 202513

6mm a year

sea level rise in the Kuroshio region, more than, 1999 to 20258

46.33million t

Republic of Korea LNG imports, 202414

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Kuroshio and East China Sea regionChina, Japan and the Republic of Korea; sea level rise of more than 6 mm a year from 1999 to 2025, against about 3.6 mm globally8Reported
Western North Pacific typhoon basinChina, Japan and the Republic of Korea; 27 named cyclones in 2025, ten landfalls in China13Reported
Yellow SeaChina and the Republic of Korea; marine heat and air exchange; no current source read4142NOT BOUND
Yellow River and YangtzeChina only; total water resources not read34NOT BOUND
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Electricity systemseach member operates its own system; the sources read describe national mixes and no cross-border flow; interconnection is not bound1415NOT BOUND
LNG supplyall three members import LNG; the Republic of Korea imported about 46.33 million t in 2024; China and Japan volumes not bound1432Reported
Air massestransboundary PM2.5 attribution for the latest stage not bound; 2023 exposure was 32.0 in China, 11.5 in Japan and 21.9 µg/m³ in the Republic of Korea184142Reported
Marine heatmarine heatwaves covered more than 10 million km² of Asian seas in July to September 20258Reported

Couplings through shared systems

  • CLI → INF → FIN storm landfall into ports and losses
  • TRD → ENE LNG route change into power prices
  • CLI → HLT heat across the members
  • WAT → FOO withdrawals and crop stress

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • LNG imports by member
  • typhoon losses in Japan and the Republic of Korea
  • transboundary PM2.5 attribution
  • cross-border electricity flows

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hub the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
Tokyo
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
not named in the registryChinaG20in preparation
TokyoJapanG20 · hubdrafted (pack in review)
not named in the registryRepublic of KoreaG20in preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
  • Hub contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the hub and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series reads East Asia as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubTokyo is named in the series registryNAMEDterms set from Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-EAS-2027-Q1
Member editionsChina in preparation; Japan drafted (pack in review); Republic of Korea in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Constitution of any regional council or working group
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points
  • Whether other places in the geography of East Asia become members in the registry

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Energy, water and health policy rest with national authorities
  • Climate targets are set by each member; this edition cites them and decides nothing
  • Only the three registry members are read; no other subject is joined on code

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 17The Korea Times (ed.), Number of newborns hits 4-year high in 2025 (report on the Ministry of Data and Statistics release, 25 February 2026; 254,457 births, total fertility rate 0.8). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (ed.), Review of the main activities on transboundary air pollution in North-East Asia (listed in search results). NEASPEC, Incheon. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia project team, PM2.5 model comparison for base year 2013, Atmosphere, vol. 12, no. 4, p. 469 (listed in search results). MDPI, Basel, 2021. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, µg per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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