Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Food
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Water
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

Natural disasters affected 67.03 million people in China in 2025 and left 763 dead or missing; ten typhoons made landfall in China and the western North Pacific season had 27 named cyclones.

Figure 2.1Deaths in 2025 disasters and typhoons
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
China, dead or missing, all natural disasters763
Typhoon season, region, more than700

Sources: Ministry of Emergency Management as reported11; WMO on the Typhoon Committee13. The typhoon figure covers the whole western North Pacific and South China Sea region, including states outside the member set.

Implication

A typhoon is a regional event. The same track crosses the sea between members and reaches ports, power and supply chains in more than one country. Warning exchange, port continuity and insurance therefore need to be read across borders13.

What would move it

Seasonal outlooks, track forecasts, port and grid continuity plans and insured-loss series would each move this finding. Losses for Japan and the Republic of Korea are not bound33.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Japan, China and the Republic of Korea each recorded their hottest summer on record in 2025; China’s annual mean of 10.9 °C tied 2024, and the Republic of Korea’s 13.7 °C was its second highest since 1973.8910

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The Republic of Korea suffered its largest known wildfires in March 2025: about 48,238 hectares burned and at least 30 people died.812

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

    An analysis of Chinese fuel and cement data put 2025 carbon dioxide emissions about 0.3% lower than in 2024, with solar generation up 43% and coal power down 1.9%; the authors call the fall too small to be certain.7

  4. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

    Japan’s net greenhouse gas emissions were 994 Mt CO₂e in FY2024, 1.9% below FY2023 and 28.7% below FY2013, the first year under one billion tonnes.6

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

    Natural disasters affected 67.03 million people in China in 2025 and left 763 dead or missing; ten typhoons made landfall in China and the western North Pacific season had 27 named cyclones.1113

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Clean energy supplied 30.4% of China’s energy consumption and coal 51.4% in 2025; wind and solar capacity stood at 640 GW and 1,202 GW at year end.5

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    Net energy imports were 87.3% of energy use in Japan and 83.2% in the Republic of Korea in 2024, against 24.0% in China.24

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

    The Republic of Korea generated 31.7% of electricity from nuclear, 28.1% from coal, 28.1% from LNG and 10.6% from renewables in 2024, and imported about 46.33 million tonnes of LNG.14

2.4Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

    Japan’s calorie-based food self-sufficiency was 38% in FY2024, unchanged for the fourth year, against a target of 45% for FY2030; the production-value measure was 64%.16

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    Japan had 30.0% of its people aged 65 or over in 2025, the Republic of Korea 20.3% and China 14.9%; the Republic of Korea’s total fertility rate was 0.8 and China’s population fell by 3.39 million.3517

2.6Water

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010

    Renewable internal freshwater was 1,992 m³ per person in China, 3,437 in Japan and 1,255 in the Republic of Korea in 2022, and the Republic of Korea withdrew 45.0% of its internal resources.1920

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot summer with a typhoon landfall in which power demand, imported fuel supply and an ageing population are stressed together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7Carbon Brief (ed.), Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 21 months (published 12 February 2026). Carbon Brief, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 17The Korea Times (ed.), Number of newborns hits 4-year high in 2025 (report on the Ministry of Data and Statistics release, 25 February 2026; 254,457 births, total fertility rate 0.8). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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