Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four regional risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

6 min read0 figures1 table23 notesNR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-EAS-CLI-001

    Typhoon and flood season across the western North Pacific

    Driver
    tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall
    Exposure
    coastal cities, ports and lowland farming
    Vulnerability
    ageing populations and dense coasts; flood defences not bound
    Capacity
    regional typhoon committee and warning exchange; documented13
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, FIN, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-EAS-ENE-002

    Fuel import interruption in a hot summer

    Driver
    supply route change, price spike or outage at peak demand
    Exposure
    power, industry, heating and cooling
    Vulnerability
    storage depth and LNG flows not bound
    Capacity
    national energy plans1415; performance not bound
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-EAS-HLT-003

    Heat overload of care services for an ageing population

    Driver
    heat waves
    Exposure
    older adults; outdoor workers
    Vulnerability
    limited cooling; workforce not bound
    Capacity
    health system capacity not bound327
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-EAS-WAT-004

    Water stress in a dry, hot year

    Driver
    low rainfall and high summer demand
    Exposure
    farming, cooling water, cities
    Vulnerability
    high withdrawal against internal resources in the Republic of Korea20
    Capacity
    basin management not bound34
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSnational targets filed or set for 2035363738; carbon neutrality law in the Republic of Korea39
Monitoring and observationEXISTSWMO, national weather services and statistics offices publish series58910
Early warningLISTEDregional typhoon committee operates13; delivery by member not bound
Preparedness and planningLISTEDSendai Framework adopted43; Nankai Trough estimate not read40; delivery not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: fuel stock registers · blocker: not retrieved32
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: after-action records for typhoon, wildfire and heat events · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility and port records · blocker: not published
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery agency and insurer records · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDbiodiversity framework adopted44; delivery not bound
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: income-support and disaster-payment records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurer and reinsurer loss data · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationEXISTSthe Typhoon Committee and the air pollution project exist1341; performance not bound
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: asset-condition registers · blocker: not published
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and emergency workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTScompound-event and nexus research is published454647
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Japan (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040 (taken from the draft Japan national edition and memory; figures not used here). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 (taken from memory of the late 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis, 2021. Republic of Korea. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Damage estimate for a Nankai Trough megaquake, revised 2025 (taken from the draft Japan national edition; figures not used here). Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (ed.), Review of the main activities on transboundary air pollution in North-East Asia (listed in search results). NEASPEC, Incheon. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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