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Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
an extended heat wave with peak power demand, followed by a typhoon landfall, with imported fuel supply tight
Analogues
hottest summer 20258; Korean wildfires 202512; typhoon season 202513
Interventions
none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → ENE

    heat raises power demand while fuel supply is tight

    import dependence24

  2. 2

    CLI → HLT

    heat raises hospital stays and deaths among older people

    ageing3; no deaths series bound

  3. 3

    CLI → INF

    a typhoon landfall disrupts ports and lines

    typhoon season 202513

  4. 4

    INF → ENE → FOO

    port closure delays fuel and food cargoes

    no analogue bound

  5. 5

    HLT → FIN

    losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

    loss series not bound

  6. 6

    FIN → recovery

    rebuilding slows where cover is thin

    loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01 would travel through East Asia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to energyHeat raises power demand while fuel supply is tight. Analogue or source: import dependence [24].Edition REG-EAS, scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01, step 1
02 Climate to healthHeat raises hospital stays and deaths among older people. Analogue or source: ageing [3]; no deaths series bound.Edition REG-EAS, scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01, step 2
03 Climate to infrastructureA typhoon landfall disrupts ports and lines. Analogue or source: typhoon season 2025 [13].Edition REG-EAS, scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to energyPort closure delays fuel and food cargoes. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition REG-EAS, scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01, step 4
05 Health to financeLosses fall on households, insurers and budgets. Analogue or source: loss series not bound.Edition REG-EAS, scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01, step 5
06 Finance to recoveryRebuilding slows where cover is thin. Analogue or source: loss series not bound.Edition REG-EAS, scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: East Asia 2026, scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01 (2026); East Asia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor. In East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind East Asia.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines10 / 15 relations

Context

Coastal storm surge

Mangroves and dunes absorb the surge; where they are gone, ports, substations and water intakes take it.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
5 of 6
Relations
10 of 15
Coupling
0.64 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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