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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a hot summer and a typhoon landfall load power systems, health services and ports across the members?

    INI-EAS-CLI-01 · compound summer and typhoon stress; first output: dependency graph for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor.

  2. A-02

    How deep are fuel stocks and how diverse are supply routes for Japan and the Republic of Korea?

    INI-EAS-ENE-02 · imported fuel resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

  3. A-03

    How do water withdrawals and drought reach farming, cooling water and cities?

    INI-EAS-WAT-03 · water stress; first output: water balance note for the Republic of Korea and northern China.

  4. A-04

    How many deaths can be attributed to heat, by member and year?

    INI-EAS-HLT-04 · heat and ageing; first output: attribution baseline for three members.

  5. A-05

    Where do typhoon and flood losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

    INI-EAS-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

  6. A-06

    What is the condition of habitats and how is it measured across members?

    INI-EAS-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

  7. A-07

    How exposed are crop output and food access to concurrent heat, drought and price shocks?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-EAS-CLI-01Compound summer and typhoon stressInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-EAS-ENE-02Imported fuel and grid resilienceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-EAS-WAT-03Water stress in dry, hot yearsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-EAS-HLT-04Heat and ageing attributionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-EAS-FIN-05Typhoon and flood protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-EAS-CLI-01aYellow Sea corridor compound summer dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-EAS-2027-01Heat, typhoon and fuel Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The East Asia regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read East Asia as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    National Foundries

    continuous national evidence environments

    PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

  2. 02

    National Models and Portfolios

    each country as a system of systems

    CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  3. 03

    Quarterly national reports

    State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

    BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

  4. 04

    Regional aggregation

    East Asia as one of ten regional clusters

    THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

  5. 05

    Global sector and strategic models

    GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

    49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

  6. 06

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

  7. 07

    Global Report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 regional annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-EAS-2027-01 · Heat, typhoon and fuel Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · hottest summerpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-011 · disasters 2025INI-EAS-CLI-01compound summer graphPUBLIC
ENE-006 · energy importsINI-EAS-ENE-02imported fuel resiliencePUBLIC
ENE-007 · Korean power mixINI-EAS-ENE-02grid resiliencePUBLIC
WAT-010 · water stressINI-EAS-WAT-03water stressPUBLIC
HLT-009 · ageingINI-EAS-HLT-04heat and ageing attributionPUBLIC
FOO-008 · food self-sufficiencyINI-EAS-BIO-01food access scopingPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-EAS-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
WMO and national climate summariesWMO, CMA, KMA, JMAannualCLI findings
Typhoon season reviewTyphoon CommitteeannualCLI-011
LNG cargoes and stocksGIIGNL and national agenciesmonthlyENE-006
Populationnational statistics offices and World Bankannualprofile
Greenhouse gas inventoriesMoE Japan, GIR Korea, ChinaannualCLI-005
Water useWorld Bank and ministriesannualWAT-010
Disaster totalsMinistry of Emergency Management and peersannualCLI-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-EAS-001Record summer 20258CORROBORATEDCLI · HLTrisk object RSK-EAS-CLI-001
SIG-EAS-002Korean wildfires 202512CORROBORATEDCLI · INFresearch question A-01
SIG-EAS-003Typhoon season 202513CORROBORATEDCLI · FINresearch question A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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