- East Asia 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1East Asia’s risk is shared through weather, fuel and demography
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot summer with a typhoon landfall across the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | China’s share of the three-member population, 2025 | 1,406.585 ÷ 1,581.636 | 88.9% |
| (2) | China’s share of the three-member output at current prices, 2025 | 19,498.0 ÷ 25,805.6 | 75.6% |
| (3) | China’s share of the three-member emissions excluding land use, 2024 | 15,536.1 ÷ 17,267.7 | 90.0% |
| (4) | Wind and solar share of China’s installed power capacity, end of 2025 | (640.01 + 1,201.73) ÷ 3,891.34 | 47.3% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-EAS-REGIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent East Asia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
11strong
documented within one season
5moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-REG-EAS-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 51 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-REG-EAS-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 regional annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Regional System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population and output | 2025 | Oct 2026 | annual | annual |
| China communiqué | 2025 preliminary | Feb 2026 | annual | final in 2027 |
| Japan emissions | FY2024 | Apr 2026 | annual | annual |
| China emissions analysis | 2025 | Feb 2026 | annual | annual |
| State of the Climate in Asia | 2025 | Jun 2026 | annual | annual |
| Typhoon season | 2025 | Mar 2026 | annual | annual |
| Korea power mix | 2024 | updated Jun 2026 | annual | annual |
| Food self-sufficiency | FY2024 | Oct 2025 | annual | annual |
| Water, air and nature series | 2022 to 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | annual |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate and hazards | PARTIAL | losses by member; heatstroke |
| Energy | PARTIAL | LNG imports; generation shares |
| Water | THIN | basin flow; recent withdrawals |
| Food | THIN | grain output by member; food access |
| Health | PARTIAL | heat deaths; census count |
| Biodiversity | THIN | habitat condition |
| Finance | THIN | insured and uninsured losses |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Heatstroke ambulance transports in Japan, May to September 2025 | Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan27 | the agency release was not opened; secondary reports gave two different totals |
| Japan Meteorological Agency 2025 annual and summer temperature anomalies | Japan Meteorological Agency annual climate summary26 | the summary file could not be read as text; values in search summaries conflicted |
| Official Japanese census count and ageing share for 1 October 2025 | Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications census release28 | the release page was not retrieved; the World Bank series13 is used instead |
| Final Korea Forest Service burned-area and death figures for the March 2025 wildfires | Korea Forest Service final report29 | not retrieved; the figures used come from a press report that cites government sources12 |
| China absolute greenhouse gas emissions for 2025 on the national inventory basis | China biennial transparency report and national inventory36 | the national communiqué gives only a change in intensity5; the inventory was not read |
| Japan food self-sufficiency for FY2025 | Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan25 | a secondary report of 37% was not corroborated by the ministry release and is not used |
| Liquefied natural gas imports of China and Japan in 2025, and flows between members | GIIGNL annual report and customs statistics32 | not retrieved; only the Republic of Korea 2024 volume was read14 |
| Electricity generation shares for China and Japan for 2025 on one basis | IEA Global Energy Review 202630 | not retrieved; the Chinese communiqué gives output in energy units for enterprises above a size threshold only5 |
| Typhoon losses in Japan and the Republic of Korea, 2025 season | RSMC Tokyo review of the 2025 typhoon season and member reports33 | the review file could not be read as text |
| Transboundary PM2.5 source-receptor attribution between China, Japan and the Republic of Korea for the latest research stage | Northeast Asia air pollution project reports4142 | the results found cover earlier base years only |
| China total water resources and river basin flow for 2025 | Ministry of Water Resources bulletin34 | the bulletin was not retrieved; the communiqué does not report it5 |
| Renewable energy shares after 2021 on the World Bank basis | World Bank series2223 and national energy statistics | the World Bank series returns no values after 2021 |
| Greenhouse gas inventory of the Republic of Korea on the national basis | Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea35 | not retrieved; the World Bank series4 is used with its basis stated |
| Capability rungs: early warning, reserves, response, recovery, social protection, infrastructure, workforce | civil protection agencies, weather services, utilities and ministries | not reviewed by evidence close |
A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources
Issued by the World Bank. Annual. Role: binds the population figures in the profile and regional reading. China’s own year-end count differs from the World Bank value by about 1.7 million [5].
EVD-EAS-001
Population, 20251
Issued by the WMO. Annual cycle, 2025 data. Role: binds the regional hazard findings. Coverage is the Asia region, not the member set alone.
EVD-EAS-002
State of the Climate in Asia 20258
| Dimension | EVD-EAS-001 | EVD-EAS-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | China, Japan and the Republic of Korea from one series | Asia region, with member findings picked out |
| Timeliness | about 9 months after the reference year | about 6 months after the reference year |
| Revision | series revised by the issuer | annual update |
| Method transparency | published methodology | published methodology |
| External validation | not assessed in this edition | not assessed in this edition |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CMA | China Meteorological Administration |
| EANET | Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia |
| FDMA | Fire and Disaster Management Agency |
| GIIGNL | International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers |
| GIR | Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea |
| JMA | Japan Meteorological Agency |
| KMA | Korea Meteorological Administration |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| LULUCF | land use, land-use change and forestry |
| NBS | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| PM2.5 | fine particulate matter of 2.5 micrometres or less |
| RSMC | Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre |
| WMO | World Meteorological Organization |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the regional indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-EAS-HEAT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Member-country notes | atlas cards for every member country | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: net energy imports
- Construct
- energy use less production of primary energy, as a share of energy use
- Unit
- % of energy use
- Scope
- calendar year
- Source
- World Bank World Development Indicators24
- Revision
- revised by the issuer; not tracked here
- Known limits
- negative values mean net exports; national energy balances may use other definitions
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Annual climate summary for 2025 (the file could not be read as text; values in search summaries were not used). JMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan (ed.), 2025 Population Census, preliminary results (the release page returned not found). MIC, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Korea Forest Service (ed.), Final report on the March 2025 wildfires (final area and deaths not read). Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan (ed.), Food self-sufficiency rate, FY2025 (a secondary report of 37% was seen as a headline only; the page body was not readable). MAFF, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (ed.), Review of the main activities on transboundary air pollution in North-East Asia (listed in search results). NEASPEC, Incheon. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia project team, PM2.5 model comparison for base year 2013, Atmosphere, vol. 12, no. 4, p. 469 (listed in search results). MDPI, Basel, 2021. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report of Korea (latest submission; not retrieved). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base; not read by this author). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back