Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables21 notesNR-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1MENA’s risk is carried by power, water and one export route
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot season with peak desalination load and a disrupted export route
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The two member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. The World Bank MENAAP aggregate appears only as a reference group, because it includes countries that are not members of this edition.

48.5million

combined population of the two members, 20251

1,103Mt CO₂e

combined emissions excluding land use, 20245

828.0million

MENAAP aggregate population, 2025, reference group38

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
Saudi Arabiapopulation 35.3 million (2024); emissions 838.9 Mt; fossil electricity 98.5%; renewable capacity 12,332 MW (2025); renewable freshwater 74.6 m³ per person; Hajj deaths reported 1,301 in 202425791119Reported
United Arab Emiratespopulation 11.3 million (2024); emissions 264.1 Mt; fossil electricity 70.1%; renewable capacity added 1,054 MW (2025); renewable freshwater 14.9 m³ per person; 259.5 mm of rain in 24 hours in 2024357101120Reported
MENAAP reference groupaggregate: population 828.0 million; emissions 4,768.6 Mt; freshwater withdrawals 148.3% of internal resources; includes countries outside the member set38Reported

Couplings across members

  • TRD → ENE → FIN across both members through the export route
  • ENE → WAT through fossil-fired desalination
  • CLI → HLT heat across pilgrimage and labour settings
  • CLI → INF rare extreme rain on roads and drainage

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • member emissions on one basis including land use
  • heat death series by member
  • protected-area shares for both members

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared coasts, grids and export routes carry risk between the members. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

about 20%

of world oil and LNG pass the Strait of Hormuz35

150ships

stranded in early March 202635

1,054MW

Emirati renewable capacity added, 202510

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Arabian Gulf coast (desalination intakes and outfalls)Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; no source read53NOT BOUND
Shared aquifers of the Arabian PeninsulaSaudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; no source read51NOT BOUND
Red Sea coastSaudi Arabia; no source read53NOT BOUND
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Gulf power grid interconnectiona Gulf interconnection authority is listed; capacity and flow series not bound52NOT BOUND
Strait of Hormuz routeabout one fifth of world oil and LNG pass the strait; declared closed in March 202635Reported
Export disruption effecteffect on 2026 output not bound at the close35NOT BOUND
Energy hubsa fire at the Fujairah hub on 3 March 2026 from falling drone debris36Reported
Oil flows and bypass routesmonthly transit and bypass volumes not bound4142NOT BOUND

Couplings through shared systems

  • TRD → ENE → FIN the export route into budgets
  • ENE → WAT power and fuel into desalination
  • INF → ENE a hub fault crossing both members
  • WAT → HLT supply interruption into health

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • transit volumes and bypass throughput
  • desalination output and storage
  • grid interconnection flows
  • groundwater depletion

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
Riyadh · Dubai
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
RiyadhSaudi ArabiaG20 · hubin preparation
DubaiUnited Arab EmiratesHubin preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
  • Hub contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read MENA as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubsRiyadh and Dubai are named in the series registryNAMEDterms set from Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-MEN-2027-Q1
Member editionsSaudi Arabia in preparation; United Arab Emirates in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Constitution of any regional council or working group
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points
  • Whether other countries of the Middle East and North Africa are admitted as members

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Energy, water and health policy rest with national authorities
  • The World Bank MENAAP aggregate is a statistical group and is not merged with MENA on a name or code
  • Each member keeps its own national edition

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 38DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Aggregate for Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (code MEA in the interface), population, GDP, emissions, water, food and electricity indicators, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08 (reference group only; includes countries outside the member set). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Population by nationality (Saudi, non-Saudi), sex and age group, 2024 (table compiled from General Authority for Statistics data; total 35,300,280). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 3Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), UAE: Total population residing in the UAE, by sex, 2000 to 2024 (table compiled from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre data; total 11,294,243). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 33POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update, October 2026 (page opened; regional output minus 2.1% in 2026 after 3.3% in 2025; GCC minus 4.3% in 2026; press release dated 6 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (the page returned access refused; Saudi and Emirati figures taken from press reports [9] [10]). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Saudi Water Authority (ed.), annual statistics on desalination production (not read; the earlier corporation name was used in search results). SWA, Riyadh. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT global water information system, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates country data (not read). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Energy Agency (ed.), Oil Market Report, October 2026 (Hormuz flows and bypass exports; the page returned access refused; figures seen only in search summaries and not used). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), commentary on global oil supply readjustment after the Strait of Hormuz shock (the page returned access refused; not used for any value). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In MENA Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of MENA’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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