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Systems and sectors at baseline

8 min read0 figures2 tables25 notesNR-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1MENA’s risk is carried by power, water and one export route
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot season with peak desalination load and a disrupted export route
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Renewable internal freshwater per person, Saudi Arabia

74.6m³

The United Arab Emirates has 14.9 m³ per person. Desalination supplied about 50% of Saudi distributed water in 2023.

Reported2022World Bank11 · GASTAT14

ENE · Energy

Electricity from fossil fuels, Saudi Arabia

98.5%

The United Arab Emirates stood at 70.1%, almost all from natural gas.

Reported2024World Bank7

FOO · Food

Food imports as a share of merchandise imports, Saudi Arabia

12.3%

Arable land is 2.0% of Saudi land area and 0.8% of Emirati land area.

Reported2025World Bank1617

HLT · Health

Deaths reported during the Hajj

1,301deaths

The health minister reported that 83% of those who died were unauthorised pilgrims. A cause breakdown was not given.

Reported2024Saudi health ministry as reported19

BIO · Biodiversity

Protected-area share and ecosystem condition

NOT BOUND

No protected-area or ecosystem series was read at evidence close.

Not boundn/ato be sourced

SYS · Cross-system

Fuel share of merchandise exports, Saudi Arabia

78.7%

Fuel was 68.2% of Emirati exports in 2023. The 2026 change in output is not bound at the close.

Reported2025World Bank22

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATRenewable freshwater 74.6 m³ per Saudi resident and 14.9 m³ per Emirati resident in 2022; about half of Saudi distributed water desalinated in 20231114.WAT ← ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 5
ENEFossil fuels 98.5% of Saudi and 70.1% of Emirati electricity in 20247; Saudi renewable capacity 12,332 MW in 20259.ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOFood 12.3% of Saudi merchandise imports in 2025; arable land 2.0% and 0.8%1617. Reserves not bound.FOO ← WAT, TRDReported EQL 4
HLTHajj deaths reported at 1,301 in 202419; fine-particle exposure 73.5 and 57.2 micrograms per cubic metre in 202321.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 3
BIOProtected areas and ecosystem condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, CLINot bound EQL 1
CLIAsia 1.04 °C above the 1991 to 2020 average in 2024; 259.5 mm of rain in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates20.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFA fire at the Fujairah energy hub in March 202636. Grid interconnection flows not bound52.INF → allReported EQL 3
FINFuel 78.7% of Saudi merchandise exports; Saudi balance projected at −6.5% of GDP in 20262231.FIN ← TRD, CLIReported EQL 4
DATDigital dependencies of power, water and ports not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on power and cooling water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral trade not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDAbout one fifth of world oil and LNG passes the Strait of Hormuz; the strait was declared closed in March 202635.TRD → allReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound heat, power and export-route stresshot season with a disrupted routePARTIAL
GS-01Waterrenewable freshwater 74.6 and 14.9 m³ per resident11desalination and groundwaterPARTIAL
GS-02Energyfossil share 98.5% and 70.1% of electricity7asset damage; fuel supplyGOOD
GS-03Foodfood 12.3% of Saudi imports16port disruption; reservesTHIN
GS-04Health1,301 Hajj deaths reported19heat load on servicesTHIN
GS-05Financefuel exports 78.7% of Saudi exports22export-route lossGOOD
GS-06DevelopmentGDP per person US$34,537 and US$50,27424migrant labour dependence26PARTIAL
GS-07Climateemissions 838.9 and 264.1 Mt5heat and rare extreme rainGOOD
GS-08Disaster259.5 mm of rain in 24 hours in 202420compound and sequential eventsTHIN
GS-09InfrastructureFujairah fire in March 202636energy and water assetsTHIN
GS-10Cities84.6% and 86.0% urban25urban heatTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno series readcondition not boundTHIN
GS-12Earth observationWMO assessment published20; fuller report not opened46continuity of recordsPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policynational net zero targets and the COP28 decision484950delivery under shocksPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencecompound-event and nexus assessments545556translation to membersPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Arable land, % of land area (AG.LND.ARBL.ZS), and agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Fuel exports, % of merchandise exports (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN), and exports of goods and services, % of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, micrograms per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 31DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), General government net lending and borrowing, and gross debt, % of GDP (GGXCNL_NGDP, GGXWDG_NGDP), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$, and GDP per capita, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2024), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), International migrant stock, % of population (SM.POP.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 25DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Urban population, population ages 0 to 14 and 65 and above, % of total, and life expectancy at birth (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024 (WMO-No. 1373), full report (the page returned not found; the press release [20] was read instead). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative and Vision 2030 (the page returned access refused; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). Vision 2030 Office, Riyadh. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Arab Emirates Government (ed.), UAE Net Zero 2050 strategic initiative (the page returned not found; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). UAE Government, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Decision 1/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake, the UAE Consensus (listed from memory; no text read). UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 56UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In MENA Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of MENA’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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