- MENA 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1MENA’s risk is carried by power, water and one export route
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot season with peak desalination load and a disrupted export route
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Saudi share of the two members’ emissions excluding land use, 2024 | 838.88 ÷ (838.88 + 264.15) | 76.1% |
| (2) | Emirati share of the two members’ emissions excluding land use, 2024 | 264.15 ÷ (838.88 + 264.15) | 23.9% |
| (3) | Combined population of the two members, 2025 | 36,973,555 + 11,513,149 | 48.5 million |
| (4) | Saudi share of the two members’ population, 2025 | 36,973,555 ÷ 48,486,704 | 76.3% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-MEN-REGIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent MENA as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
11strong
documented within one season
5moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-REG-MEN-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 59 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-REG-MEN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 regional annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Regional System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 2025 | Oct 2026 | annual | annual |
| Emissions | 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | annual |
| Electricity mix | 2024 | Oct 2026 | annual | annual |
| Renewable shares | 2021 | Oct 2026 | annual | update pending |
| Freshwater withdrawals | 2022 | Oct 2026 | annual | annual |
| Saudi desalination share | 2023 | Jan 2025 | annual | annual |
| IMF projections | 2026–2027 | Oct 2026 | half-yearly | Apr 2027 |
| WMO Asia assessment | 2024 | Jun 2025 | annual | annual |
| Hajj deaths | 2024 | Jun 2024 | annual | annual |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate and hazards | PARTIAL | heat deaths; flood losses |
| Energy | PARTIAL | electricity mix for 2025; asset damage |
| Water | PARTIAL | desalination output; groundwater storage |
| Food | THIN | cereal reserves; import dependence |
| Health | THIN | heat illness; Hajj causes of death |
| Biodiversity | THIN | protected areas; ecosystem condition |
| Finance | PARTIAL | insurance cover; asset losses |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Damage to energy and water assets in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 2026 | national authorities and independent assessments | no official assessment opened; the IMF states only that damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity34 |
| Strait of Hormuz transit volumes and bypass pipeline throughput, latest month | IEA Oil Market Report, October 202641 | the IEA pages returned access refused; figures seen in search summaries are not used |
| Renewable capacity of the United Arab Emirates, total at end 2025 | IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 202643 | the primary tables were not opened; only the 2025 addition was read in a press report10 |
| Electricity generation by source for 2025, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates | national grid operators, IEA or Ember data | the World Bank series ends in 2024 for fossil shares and in 2021 for renewable shares78 |
| Desalination output and share of supply for the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi output in 2024 and 2025 | Saudi Water Authority and emirate water utilities53 | not retrieved; only the 2023 Saudi share was read, in a press report of the water accounts14 |
| Groundwater storage and depletion in the Arabian Peninsula aquifers | national water authorities and FAO AQUASTAT51 | not retrieved |
| Heat-related deaths and occupational heat illness, by member and year | ministries of health and WHO | not found; the Hajj announcement of 2024 gives total deaths without a cause breakdown19 |
| Hajj 2025 and 2026 deaths and causes | Saudi Ministry of Health announcements | not retrieved |
| Cereal production, import dependence and strategic food reserves | FAO and national food security authorities | not retrieved; the World Bank series read cover food imports as a share of trade only16 |
| Terrestrial and marine protected-area share, coral and mangrove condition | national environment authorities and UN Environment Programme data | not retrieved at evidence close |
| Progress against the national climate targets of each member | national communications to the UNFCCC4849 | the instruments were not opened; no figure from them is used |
| Insured and total losses of the April 2024 floods in the United Arab Emirates, and the national death toll | insurers’ associations and the authorities | not retrieved; the national meteorological centre statement was not opened and reports differed in the figures they gave47 |
| Cross-border flows and spare capacity on the Gulf power grid interconnection | Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority52 | not retrieved |
| Capability rungs: early warning, reserves, response, recovery, social protection, infrastructure, workforce | civil protection, weather services, utilities and ministries | not reviewed by evidence close |
A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources
Issued by the World Bank. Annual. Role: binds the 2025 population figures in the profile and regional reading. The national figures for 2024 [2] [3] differ in year and basis.
EVD-MEN-001
Population, total, World Bank series1
Issued by the International Monetary Fund. Half-yearly. Role: post-close, context only (issued after the 30 September 2026 close); binds no baseline finding. Values for 2026 and 2027 are projections.
EVD-MEN-002
World Economic Outlook database, October 202629
| Dimension | EVD-MEN-001 | EVD-MEN-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | both members and a reference aggregate | both members |
| Timeliness | about 10 months after the reference year | projection of the current year |
| Revision | series are revised by the issuer | revised twice a year |
| Method transparency | published methodology | published methodology |
| External validation | not assessed in this edition | not assessed in this edition |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| COP28 | twenty-eighth Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| GASTAT | General Authority for Statistics (Saudi Arabia) |
| GCC | Gulf Cooperation Council |
| GLMM | Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme |
| IEA | International Energy Agency |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| IRENA | International Renewable Energy Agency |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| LULUCF | land use, land-use change and forestry |
| MENA | Middle East and North Africa, as defined by the series registry |
| MENAAP | Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (World Bank aggregate) |
| UNFCCC | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
| WMO | World Meteorological Organization |
| PM2.5 | particulate matter below 2.5 micrometres |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the regional indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-MEN-HOT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Member-country notes | atlas cards for every member country | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use
- Construct
- annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry
- Unit
- Mt CO₂e
- Scope
- calendar year
- Source
- World Bank greenhouse gas series5
- Revision
- revised by the issuer; not tracked here
- Known limits
- does not include land use and is not comparable with net inventory totals
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Energy Agency (ed.), Oil Market Report, October 2026 (Hormuz flows and bypass exports; the page returned access refused; figures seen only in search summaries and not used). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (the page returned access refused; Saudi and Emirati figures taken from press reports [9] [10]). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), and renewable energy consumption, % of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Saudi Water Authority (ed.), annual statistics on desalination production (not read; the earlier corporation name was used in search results). SWA, Riyadh. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT global water information system, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates country data (not read). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative and Vision 2030 (the page returned access refused; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). Vision 2030 Office, Riyadh. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Arab Emirates Government (ed.), UAE Net Zero 2050 strategic initiative (the page returned not found; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). UAE Government, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Centre of Meteorology (United Arab Emirates) (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (search summaries gave about 254 mm against 259.5 mm in [20]; not used for any value). NCM, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 59UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back