MENA Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of MENA’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the MENA baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Saudi Arabia emitted 838.9 Mt CO₂e and the United Arab Emirates 264.1 Mt in 2024, excluding land use. Per person both are near 18 tonnes of CO₂.⁵⁶

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. Fossil fuels produced 98.5% of Saudi and 70.1% of Emirati electricity in 2024. Saudi renewable capacity grew about 87% in 2025.⁷⁹

   How is electricity supplied?Reported

3. Renewable internal freshwater is 74.6 m³ per person in Saudi Arabia and 14.9 m³ in the United Arab Emirates. Desalination supplied about half of Saudi distributed water in 2023.¹¹¹⁴

   How scarce is water?Reported

4. Food imports were 12.3% of Saudi merchandise imports in 2025. Reserves and cereal import dependence are not bound.¹⁶

   How exposed is food supply?Reported

5. The 2024 Hajj saw 1,301 deaths reported. No heat-death series by member is bound.¹⁹

   How severe is heat?Reported

6. The effect on 2026 output is not bound at the close. The strait was declared closed in March 2026.³⁵

   What did the 2026 export disruption do to output?Not bound

7. No official assessment of damage to energy or water assets was opened.³⁴

   Which assets were damaged?Not bound

8. Peak power demand, desalination load and a disrupted export route coinciding in a hot season. SCN-MEN-HOT-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

Not boundEQL 1NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

The 2026 change in real GDP in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is not bound at the close. The Strait of Hormuz was declared closed in March 2026, and fuel made up 78.7% of Saudi merchandise exports in 2025 and 68.2% of Emirati exports in 2023.

The shock moved through trade first. A route loss reaches public budgets and the power and water systems that those budgets support²². The strait was declared closed in March 2026 and about 150 ships were stranded³⁵. No release dated on or before 30 September 2026 that gives the effect on output was opened. IMF and World Bank releases of October 2026 are held as post-close, context only²⁹³⁴.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Population by nationality (Saudi, non-Saudi), sex and age group, 2024 (table compiled from General Authority for Statistics data; total 35,300,280). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), UAE: Total population residing in the UAE, by sex, 2000 to 2024 (table compiled from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre data; total 11,294,243). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, total and per capita (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5 and EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Fuel exports, % of merchandise exports (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN), and exports of goods and services, % of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$, and GDP per capita, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2024), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), International migrant stock, % of population (SM.POP.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is MENA’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The MENA matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → HLT

   Heat raises illness and deaths and loads health services.

   Inferred Hajj 2024¹⁹; cause not given

2. 02

   ENE → WAT

   Power loss or fuel shortage reduces desalination output.

   Inferred about half of Saudi water desalinated¹⁴; no event bound

3. 03

   TRD → FIN → ENE

   A lost export route cuts income that funds power and water.

   Inferred closure reported in March 2026³⁵; output effect not bound

4. 04

   INF → ENE → all

   Damage to an energy hub spreads to power, water and ports.

   Reported Fujairah fire 2026³⁶; losses not bound

5. 05

   CLI → INF

   Rare extreme rain floods roads, power and drainage.

   Inferred UAE rain 2024²⁰; losses not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Population by nationality (Saudi, non-Saudi), sex and age group, 2024 (table compiled from General Authority for Statistics data; total 35,300,280). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), UAE: Total population residing in the UAE, by sex, 2000 to 2024 (table compiled from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre data; total 11,294,243). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population growth, annual % (SP.POP.GROW), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), International migrant stock, % of population (SM.POP.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, micrograms per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population living in areas where elevation is below 5 metres, % of total (EN.POP.EL5M.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector: agriculture, domestic and industry, % of total (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS, ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 27DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Energy use, kg of oil equivalent per capita, electric power consumption, kWh per capita, and net energy imports, % of energy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Oil rents and total natural resources rents, % of GDP (NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS, NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), and renewable energy consumption, % of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

Not boundEQL 1NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

The 2026 change in real GDP in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is not bound at the close. The Strait of Hormuz was declared closed in March 2026, and fuel made up 78.7% of Saudi merchandise exports in 2025 and 68.2% of Emirati exports in 2023.

Implication

The shock moved through trade first. A route loss reaches public budgets and the power and water systems that those budgets support²². The strait was declared closed in March 2026 and about 150 ships were stranded³⁵. No release dated on or before 30 September 2026 that gives the effect on output was opened. IMF and World Bank releases of October 2026 are held as post-close, context only²⁹³⁴.

What would move it

Shipping volumes through the strait, damage assessments for energy and water assets, and a release that gives the 2026 change in output would each move this finding. Damage to assets is not bound.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Greenhouse gas emissions excluding land use were 838.9 Mt CO₂e in Saudi Arabia and 264.1 Mt in the United Arab Emirates in 2024, or 18.5 and 18.3 tonnes of CO₂ per person.⁵⁶

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009

   Asia was 1.04 °C above the 1991 to 2020 average in 2024, and the United Arab Emirates recorded 259.5 mm of rain in 24 hours, one of its most extreme events since records began in 1949.²⁰

2.3Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-002

   Saudi Arabia had 35.3 million residents in 2024 and the United Arab Emirates 11.3 million; both populations grew by about 4.6% in 2025 on the World Bank series.¹²³⁴

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   The Saudi health minister reported 1,301 deaths during the 2024 Hajj, of which 83% were unauthorised pilgrims; a cause breakdown was not given.¹⁹

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   Mean annual exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) was 73.5 micrograms per cubic metre in Saudi Arabia and 57.2 in the United Arab Emirates in 2023.²¹

2.4Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Fossil fuels produced 98.5% of Saudi electricity (oil 40.8%, gas 57.7%) and 70.1% of Emirati electricity (gas 69.6%) in 2024.⁷

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Saudi renewable capacity reached 12,332 MW in 2025, up about 87% on 2024, and the United Arab Emirates added 1,054 MW.⁹¹⁰

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   Renewable internal freshwater was 74.6 m³ per person in Saudi Arabia and 14.9 m³ in the United Arab Emirates in 2022, and annual withdrawals were 974% and 1,510% of internal resources.¹¹¹²

2.6Finance

1. Not boundEQL 1NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

   The 2026 change in real GDP in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is not bound at the close. The Strait of Hormuz was declared closed in March 2026, and fuel made up 78.7% of Saudi merchandise exports in 2025 and 68.2% of Emirati exports in 2023.²²³⁵

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

   Fuel made up 78.7% of Saudi merchandise exports in 2025 and 68.2% of Emirati exports in 2023; Saudi general government balance is projected at −6.5% of GDP in 2026.²²³¹

2.7Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

   Food was 12.3% of Saudi merchandise imports in 2025 and 5.0% of Emirati imports in 2023; arable land covers 2.0% and 0.8% of land area.¹⁶¹⁷

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot season in which peak power demand, desalination load and a disrupted export route coincide. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Fuel exports, % of merchandise exports (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN), and exports of goods and services, % of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, total and per capita (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5 and EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 2Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Population by nationality (Saudi, non-Saudi), sex and age group, 2024 (table compiled from General Authority for Statistics data; total 35,300,280). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 3Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), UAE: Total population residing in the UAE, by sex, 2000 to 2024 (table compiled from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre data; total 11,294,243). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population growth, annual % (SP.POP.GROW), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, micrograms per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 31DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), General government net lending and borrowing, and gross debt, % of GDP (GGXCNL_NGDP, GGXWDG_NGDP), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Arable land, % of land area (AG.LND.ARBL.ZS), and agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Arable land, % of land area (AG.LND.ARBL.ZS), and agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Fuel exports, % of merchandise exports (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN), and exports of goods and services, % of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, micrograms per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 31DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), General government net lending and borrowing, and gross debt, % of GDP (GGXCNL_NGDP, GGXWDG_NGDP), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$, and GDP per capita, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2024), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), International migrant stock, % of population (SM.POP.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 25DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Urban population, population ages 0 to 14 and 65 and above, % of total, and life expectancy at birth (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024 (WMO-No. 1373), full report (the page returned not found; the press release [20] was read instead). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative and Vision 2030 (the page returned access refused; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). Vision 2030 Office, Riyadh. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Arab Emirates Government (ed.), UAE Net Zero 2050 strategic initiative (the page returned not found; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). UAE Government, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Decision 1/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake, the UAE Consensus (listed from memory; no text read). UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 56UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. InferredEQL 3RSK-MEN-CLI-001

   Extreme heat during pilgrimage and peak demand

   Driver

   heat waves in the hot season

   Exposure

   pilgrims, outdoor workers, migrants in labour housing

   Vulnerability

   shelter and rest access; workforce data not bound

   Capacity

   health services and pilgrimage management; performance not bound¹⁹

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-MEN-WAT-002

   Desalination and groundwater dependence

   Driver

   high demand, loss of power or fuel, damage or contamination at intakes

   Exposure

   cities and industry on the coast

   Vulnerability

   storage depth and plant concentration not bound

   Capacity

   water authorities⁵³; performance not bound

   Cascade

   WAT ← ENE; WAT → HLT, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-MEN-ENE-003

   Energy asset damage and export-route loss

   Driver

   attack, route closure or a fuel supply fault

   Exposure

   power, desalination, public finance

   Vulnerability

   bypass capacity and spare generation not bound

   Capacity

   operators and authorities; post-close, context only: the IMF notes rerouting of critical supplies³⁴

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FIN, WAT

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEN-FIN-004

   Fuel-export shock to public budgets

   Driver

   volume and price shock on fuel exports

   Exposure

   budgets, banks, households

   Vulnerability

   Saudi deficit projected at 6.5% of GDP in 2026³¹

   Capacity

   fiscal buffers; post-close, context only: the IMF advises temporary and targeted support³⁴

   Cascade

   FIN → ENE, WAT, HLT services

   Horizon

   1–2 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Saudi Water Authority (ed.), annual statistics on desalination production (not read; the earlier corporation name was used in search results). SWA, Riyadh. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 31DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), General government net lending and borrowing, and gross debt, % of GDP (GGXCNL_NGDP, GGXWDG_NGDP), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative and Vision 2030 (the page returned access refused; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). Vision 2030 Office, Riyadh. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Arab Emirates Government (ed.), UAE Net Zero 2050 strategic initiative (the page returned not found; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). UAE Government, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Decision 1/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake, the UAE Consensus (listed from memory; no text read). UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

an extended heat wave in the hot season, peak power and cooling demand, and an export route that stays impaired

Analogues

Hajj 2024¹⁹; Emirati rain 2024 for a compound event²⁰; the 2026 closure and the Fujairah fire³⁵³⁶

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification, labelled SCENARIO; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → HLT

   heat raises illness and loads health services

   Hajj 2024¹⁹

2. 2

   CLI → ENE

   cooling demand lifts peak load on a fossil-fired system

   fossil shares⁷

3. 3

   ENE → WAT

   a power or fuel fault reduces desalination output

   no analogue bound

4. 4

   TRD → FIN

   export income falls and buffers draw down

   no analogue bound

5. 5

   FIN → recovery

   repairs and support compete for budget

   no analogue bound

6. 6

   INF → all

   damage to a hub spreads across power, water and ports

   Fujairah fire³⁶

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01 would travel through MENA’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: MENA 2026, scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01 (2026); MENA 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for MENA. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about MENA’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 58UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement, Decision 1/CP.21. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Decision 1/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake, the UAE Consensus (listed from memory; no text read). UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative and Vision 2030 (the page returned access refused; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). Vision 2030 Office, Riyadh. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Arab Emirates Government (ed.), UAE Net Zero 2050 strategic initiative (the page returned not found; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). UAE Government, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 57UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 33POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update, October 2026 (page opened; regional output minus 2.1% in 2026 after 3.3% in 2025; GCC minus 4.3% in 2026; press release dated 6 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 56UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024 (WMO-No. 1373), full report (the page returned not found; the press release [20] was read instead). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2026 (the file returned not found; not used for any value). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Middle East and Central Asia press briefing, Annual Meetings 2026, 15 October 2026 (the page returned not found; figures seen only in search summaries and not used). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Energy Agency (ed.), Oil Market Report, October 2026 (Hormuz flows and bypass exports; the page returned access refused; figures seen only in search summaries and not used). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), commentary on global oil supply readjustment after the Strait of Hormuz shock (the page returned access refused; not used for any value). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 2Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Population by nationality (Saudi, non-Saudi), sex and age group, 2024 (table compiled from General Authority for Statistics data; total 35,300,280). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 3Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), UAE: Total population residing in the UAE, by sex, 2000 to 2024 (table compiled from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre data; total 11,294,243). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population growth, annual % (SP.POP.GROW), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, total and per capita (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5 and EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), and renewable energy consumption, % of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 27DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Energy use, kg of oil equivalent per capita, electric power consumption, kWh per capita, and net energy imports, % of energy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector: agriculture, domestic and industry, % of total (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS, ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), People using at least basic drinking water services and safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Arable land, % of land area (AG.LND.ARBL.ZS), and agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food production index, 2014 to 2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (the page returned access refused; Saudi and Emirati figures taken from press reports [9] [10]). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Saudi Water Authority (ed.), annual statistics on desalination production (not read; the earlier corporation name was used in search results). SWA, Riyadh. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT global water information system, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates country data (not read). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Fuel exports, % of merchandise exports (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN), and exports of goods and services, % of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a hot season load power, desalination and health services together, in both members?

   INI-MEN-CLI-01 · compound hot-season stress; first output: dependency graph for the Gulf coast.

2. A-02

   How resilient are power and water systems to the loss of an export route and damage to energy assets?

   INI-MEN-ENE-02 · export route and energy security; first output: asset and route register.

3. A-03

   How much of the water supply rests on desalination, stored groundwater and imports, and how long can stores last?

   INI-MEN-WAT-03 · desalination and stored water; first output: supply-source note for both members.

4. A-04

   How many deaths and illnesses can be attributed to heat, by member and season?

   INI-MEN-HLT-04 · heat and health; first output: attribution baseline.

5. A-05

   How are fiscal buffers and trade exposed to a fuel-export shock?

   INI-MEN-FIN-05 · fuel-export exposure; first output: buffer and exposure table.

6. A-06

   What is the condition of coastal and desert ecosystems and how is it measured?

   INI-MEN-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

7. A-07

   How exposed is food supply to port, shipping and price shocks?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The MENA regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read MENA as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   MENA as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-MEN-2027-01 · Heat, power and water Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The two member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. The World Bank MENAAP aggregate appears only as a reference group, because it includes countries that are not members of this edition.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared coasts, grids and export routes carry risk between the members. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

Riyadh · Dubai

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
• Hub contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read MENA as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 38DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Aggregate for Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (code MEA in the interface), population, GDP, emissions, water, food and electricity indicators, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08 (reference group only; includes countries outside the member set). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Population by nationality (Saudi, non-Saudi), sex and age group, 2024 (table compiled from General Authority for Statistics data; total 35,300,280). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 3Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), UAE: Total population residing in the UAE, by sex, 2000 to 2024 (table compiled from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre data; total 11,294,243). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 33POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update, October 2026 (page opened; regional output minus 2.1% in 2026 after 3.3% in 2025; GCC minus 4.3% in 2026; press release dated 6 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (the page returned access refused; Saudi and Emirati figures taken from press reports [9] [10]). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Saudi Water Authority (ed.), annual statistics on desalination production (not read; the earlier corporation name was used in search results). SWA, Riyadh. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT global water information system, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates country data (not read). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Energy Agency (ed.), Oil Market Report, October 2026 (Hormuz flows and bypass exports; the page returned access refused; figures seen only in search summaries and not used). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), commentary on global oil supply readjustment after the Strait of Hormuz shock (the page returned access refused; not used for any value). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-MEN-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent MENA as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-MEN-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

59 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-MEN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026⁴³ : tables for the United Arab Emirates
• IEA Oil Market Report⁴¹ : transit and bypass volumes
• Saudi Water Authority and emirate utilities⁵³ : desalination output
• Reports Foundational Edition⁵⁹ and the global baseline⁴⁰ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct

annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

calendar year

Source

World Bank greenhouse gas series⁵

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

does not include land use and is not comparable with net inventory totals

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Energy Agency (ed.), Oil Market Report, October 2026 (Hormuz flows and bypass exports; the page returned access refused; figures seen only in search summaries and not used). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (the page returned access refused; Saudi and Emirati figures taken from press reports [9] [10]). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), and renewable energy consumption, % of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Saudi Water Authority (ed.), annual statistics on desalination production (not read; the earlier corporation name was used in search results). SWA, Riyadh. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT global water information system, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates country data (not read). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative and Vision 2030 (the page returned access refused; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). Vision 2030 Office, Riyadh. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Arab Emirates Government (ed.), UAE Net Zero 2050 strategic initiative (the page returned not found; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). UAE Government, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Centre of Meteorology (United Arab Emirates) (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (search summaries gave about 254 mm against 259.5 mm in [20]; not used for any value). NCM, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 59UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: MENA by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 2 member countries named in the series registry.

Selected indicators²³⁵

B.4Atlas card: Gulf coast and Strait of Hormuz

• coast and strait
• shared export and desalination corridor
• power, water and trade
• members: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

Systems in view

water, energy and trade

Defining instruments

no treaty read at baseline

Couplings

TRD → ENE → FIN; ENE → WAT

Capability evidence

a Gulf grid interconnection authority is listed⁵²; performance not bound

Gaps

transit volumes, bypass throughput, desalination output and asset damage

Agenda items

A-02

B.5MENA system card

The card through which MENA appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

two fuel-exporting members sharing a coast, an export route and a hot climate

Population

35.3 million in Saudi Arabia and 11.3 million in the United Arab Emirates, 2024²³

Trade

fuel 78.7% of Saudi merchandise exports in 2025²²

Hazard

heat, and a strait declared closed in March 2026¹⁹³⁵

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-MEN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Population by nationality (Saudi, non-Saudi), sex and age group, 2024 (table compiled from General Authority for Statistics data; total 35,300,280). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), UAE: Total population residing in the UAE, by sex, 2000 to 2024 (table compiled from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre data; total 11,294,243). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Saudi Water Authority (ed.), annual statistics on desalination production (not read; the earlier corporation name was used in search results). SWA, Riyadh. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT global water information system, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates country data (not read). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population growth, annual % (SP.POP.GROW), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, total and per capita (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5 and EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), and renewable energy consumption, % of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 27DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Energy use, kg of oil equivalent per capita, electric power consumption, kWh per capita, and net energy imports, % of energy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 37DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Access to electricity, % of population, and mortality rate attributed to unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, per 100,000 (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, SH.STA.WASH.P5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (the page returned access refused; Saudi and Emirati figures taken from press reports [9] [10]). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector: agriculture, domestic and industry, % of total (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS, ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), People using at least basic drinking water services and safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Arable land, % of land area (AG.LND.ARBL.ZS), and agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food production index, 2014 to 2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, micrograms per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 30DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Inflation rate, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 31DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), General government net lending and borrowing, and gross debt, % of GDP (GGXCNL_NGDP, GGXWDG_NGDP), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 32DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Current account balance, % of GDP (BCA_NGDPD), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 33POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update, October 2026 (page opened; regional output minus 2.1% in 2026 after 3.3% in 2025; GCC minus 4.3% in 2026; press release dated 6 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 38DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Aggregate for Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (code MEA in the interface), population, GDP, emissions, water, food and electricity indicators, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08 (reference group only; includes countries outside the member set). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Fuel exports, % of merchandise exports (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN), and exports of goods and services, % of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.159 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Population by nationality (Saudi, non-Saudi), sex and age group, 2024 (table compiled from General Authority for Statistics data; total 35,300,280). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (ed.), UAE: Total population residing in the UAE, by sex, 2000 to 2024 (table compiled from Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre data; total 11,294,243). GLMM, Gulf Research Center. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population growth, annual % (SP.POP.GROW), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
5. 5DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, total and per capita (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5 and EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
7. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), and renewable energy consumption, % of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
9. 9Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi Arabia renewables capacity jumps 87% to 12.3GW in 2025 (press report on IRENA capacity statistics; 12,332 MW). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10Zawya Projects (ed.), Saudi leads GCC renewables growth as Oman, Qatar post fastest gains in 2025 (press report on IRENA data; United Arab Emirates addition of 1,054 MW read from the subheading, the rest of the page was behind a sign-up wall). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
13. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Annual freshwater withdrawals by sector: agriculture, domestic and industry, % of total (ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS, ER.H2O.FWDM.ZS, ER.H2O.FWIN.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
14. 14Arab News Pakistan (ed.), Saudi Arabia boosts desalinated water supply to 50% in Vision 2030 push (press report of the General Authority for Statistics water accounts, 5 January 2025; desalinated water 50% of distributed supply in 2023, 44% in 2022). Arab News. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
15. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), People using at least basic drinking water services and safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
16. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food imports, % of merchandise imports (TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
17. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Arable land, % of land area (AG.LND.ARBL.ZS), and agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
18. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food production index, 2014 to 2016 = 100 (AG.PRD.FOOD.XD), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
19. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
20. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
21. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, micrograms per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
22. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Fuel exports, % of merchandise exports (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN), and exports of goods and services, % of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2023), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
23. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Oil rents and total natural resources rents, % of GDP (NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS, NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1
24. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$, and GDP per capita, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Saudi Arabia (2025) and United Arab Emirates (2024), World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3
25. 25DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Urban population, population ages 0 to 14 and 65 and above, % of total, and life expectancy at birth (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS, SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
26. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), International migrant stock, % of population (SM.POP.TOTL.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3
27. 27DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Energy use, kg of oil equivalent per capita, electric power consumption, kWh per capita, and net energy imports, % of energy use (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE, EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
28. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Population living in areas where elevation is below 5 metres, % of total (EN.POP.EL5M.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1
29. 29DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Real GDP growth, annual percent change (NGDP_RPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
30. 30DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Inflation rate, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
31. 31DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), General government net lending and borrowing, and gross debt, % of GDP (GGXCNL_NGDP, GGXWDG_NGDP), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4
32. 32DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Current account balance, % of GDP (BCA_NGDPD), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, DataMapper interface. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
33. 33POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update, October 2026 (page opened; regional output minus 2.1% in 2026 after 3.3% in 2025; GCC minus 4.3% in 2026; press release dated 6 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
34. 34POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Managing Director’s remarks at the meeting of the Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors of the Gulf Cooperation Council, 1 October 2026 (GCC economy expected to contract in 2026; near closure of Hormuz sharply curtailed oil and gas exports; damage to energy facilities reduced production capacity). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
35. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
36. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 8
37. 37DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Access to electricity, % of population, and mortality rate attributed to unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene, per 100,000 (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, SH.STA.WASH.P5), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
38. 38DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Aggregate for Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (code MEA in the interface), population, GDP, emissions, water, food and electricity indicators, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08 (reference group only; includes countries outside the member set). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
39. 39Reports (ed.), Series registry of subjects (subjects.federation.json: REG-MEN, SAU and ARE entries with region MEN; hubs Riyadh and Dubai; no other subject carries region MEN). Reports, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
40. 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Energy Agency (ed.), Oil Market Report, October 2026 (Hormuz flows and bypass exports; the page returned access refused; figures seen only in search summaries and not used). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), commentary on global oil supply readjustment after the Strait of Hormuz shock (the page returned access refused; not used for any value). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (the page returned access refused; Saudi and Emirati figures taken from press reports [9] [10]). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Middle East and Central Asia press briefing, Annual Meetings 2026, 15 October 2026 (the page returned not found; figures seen only in search summaries and not used). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2026 (the file returned not found; not used for any value). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024 (WMO-No. 1373), full report (the page returned not found; the press release [20] was read instead). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Centre of Meteorology (United Arab Emirates) (ed.), statement on the rainfall of 16 April 2024 (search summaries gave about 254 mm against 259.5 mm in [20]; not used for any value). NCM, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative and Vision 2030 (the page returned access refused; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). Vision 2030 Office, Riyadh. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Arab Emirates Government (ed.), UAE Net Zero 2050 strategic initiative (the page returned not found; listed from memory as a published national instrument, no figure used). UAE Government, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Decision 1/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake, the UAE Consensus (listed from memory; no text read). UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT global water information system, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates country data (not read). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
52. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (ed.), GCC power grid interconnection (listed from memory; capacity and flows not read). GCCIA, Dammam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
53. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Saudi Water Authority (ed.), annual statistics on desalination production (not read; the earlier corporation name was used in search results). SWA, Riyadh. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
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55. 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
56. 56UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
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59. 59UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

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