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Hot season with peak desalination load and a disrupted export route

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1MENA’s risk is carried by power, water and one export route
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot season with peak desalination load and a disrupted export route
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
an extended heat wave in the hot season, peak power and cooling demand, and an export route that stays impaired
Analogues
Hajj 202419; Emirati rain 2024 for a compound event20; the 2026 closure and the Fujairah fire3536
Interventions
none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification, labelled SCENARIO; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → HLT

    heat raises illness and loads health services

    Hajj 202419

  2. 2

    CLI → ENE

    cooling demand lifts peak load on a fossil-fired system

    fossil shares7

  3. 3

    ENE → WAT

    a power or fuel fault reduces desalination output

    no analogue bound

  4. 4

    TRD → FIN

    export income falls and buffers draw down

    no analogue bound

  5. 5

    FIN → recovery

    repairs and support compete for budget

    no analogue bound

  6. 6

    INF → all

    damage to a hub spreads across power, water and ports

    Fujairah fire36

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01 would travel through MENA’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to healthHeat raises illness and loads health services. Analogue or source: Hajj 2024 [19].Edition REG-MEN, scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01, step 1
02 Climate to energyCooling demand lifts peak load on a fossil-fired system. Analogue or source: fossil shares [7].Edition REG-MEN, scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01, step 2
03 Energy to waterA power or fuel fault reduces desalination output. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition REG-MEN, scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01, step 3
04 Trade to financeExport income falls and buffers draw down. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition REG-MEN, scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01, step 4
05 Finance to recoveryRepairs and support compete for budget. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition REG-MEN, scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01, step 5
06 Infrastructure to allDamage to a hub spreads across power, water and ports. Analogue or source: Fujairah fire [36].Edition REG-MEN, scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: MENA 2026, scenario SCN-MEN-HOT-01 (2026); MENA 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19Gulf News (ed.), Hajj 2024: Saudi Arabia says 1,301 deaths, mostly unregistered pilgrims (report of the Saudi Minister of Health announcement and the Saudi Press Agency, 23 June 2024; 83% unauthorised; no cause breakdown on the page). Gulf News, Dubai. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 20World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Rising temperatures and extreme weather hit Asia hard (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, 23 June 2025; 1.04 °C above 1991 to 2020; 259.5 mm in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 35Al Jazeera (ed.), Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices (report, 3 March 2026; about one fifth of oil and LNG; Revolutionary Guard commander declared the strait closed; about 150 ships stranded). Al Jazeera Media Network, Doha. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 36Oman Observer (ed.), How the war is choking off the world’s oil and gas (report, 5 March 2026, citing a New York Times analysis of Kpler data; fire at the Fujairah energy hub from falling drone debris; Qatar halted LNG output). Oman Observer, Muscat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources, oil sources and natural gas sources, % of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.PETR.ZS, EG.ELC.NGAS.ZS), Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, World Development Indicators database, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Hot season with peak desalination load and a disrupted export route. In MENA Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of MENA’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-MEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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