Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Oceania-Pacific’s risk is set by ocean, coast and distance
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Cyclone and marine-heatwave season across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

More than half of the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast, and at least 50,000 Pacific islanders a year face displacement risk from climate change.

Figure 2.1Marine heatwave area and ocean warmth, 2024
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Marine heatwave area, million km²40
Warming above 1991–2020, tenths of °C0.48

Source: WMO State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 202418. The two bars use different units and show scale only.

Implication

Coastal exposure is a regional fact, not a national one. A storm surge, a king tide or a marine heatwave that damages reefs reaches fisheries, freshwater lenses, housing and power assets together. Response, insurance and relocation therefore need to be read across borders18.

What would move it

The sea-level rate for the region, cyclone counts and losses by country, coastal population by country and relocation records would each move this finding. None is bound17.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Australia emitted 591.5 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024, against 10.8 Mt for Papua New Guinea, 6.5 Mt for the Pacific island small states and 2.75 Mt for Fiji.8

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Australian inventory emissions were reported at about 455.6 Mt CO₂e in the year to March 2026, 1.6% lower than a year earlier and 25.0% below 2005.30

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    Australia has a 2030 target of 43% below 2005 and net zero by 2050 in its Climate Change Act, and a 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 2005 reported from September 2025.3132

  4. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

    2024 was the warmest year on record in the South-West Pacific, about 0.48 °C above the 1991–2020 average, and marine heatwaves covered about 40 million km².18

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    More than half of the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast, and at least 50,000 Pacific islanders a year face displacement risk from climate change.18

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Wind and solar supplied 33% of Australian electricity in 2025, clean sources 39%, fossil fuels 61% and coal 43%.28

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

    In 2023, 100% of Australians and 99.3% of people in Fiji had access to electricity, against 88.9% in the Pacific island small states and 20.5% in Papua New Guinea.14

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    Australia consumed 17,223 GL of water in 2023–24, up 12.9%, and agriculture, forestry and fishing used 68.3% of it; 41.9% of people in Fiji used safely managed drinking water in 2022.414

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    In 2023, 29.7% of people in Papua New Guinea were undernourished, against 13.5% in the Pacific island small states, 7.0% in Fiji and 2.5% in Australia.13

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

    Life expectancy at birth in Australia was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females in 2022–24; the World Bank series for 2023 gives 67.3 years in Fiji, 66.1 in Papua New Guinea and 69.3 in the Pacific island small states.312

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    In 2024, Australia protected 22.0% of its land and 45.4% of its sea area, against 3.9% and 0.9% in Fiji, and 3.7% and 0.1% in Papua New Guinea.11

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a cyclone and marine-heatwave season that meets coastal exposure and thin power access across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Oceania-Pacific Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Oceania-Pacific’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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