- Oceania-Pacific 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Oceania-Pacific’s risk is set by ocean, coast and distance
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Cyclone and marine-heatwave season across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
Oceania-Pacific, as the series reads it, has one member country in the registry, Australia, and sits beside a wider group of Pacific states that have no subject in the registry yet. Australia had 27.92 million residents at 31 March 20261. Its emissions excluding land use were 591.5 Mt CO₂e in 2024, about 21.7 t per person, against 10.8 Mt for Papua New Guinea and 2.75 Mt for Fiji in the World Bank series8. Wind and solar supplied 33% of Australian electricity in 202528, while only 20.5% of people in Papua New Guinea had access to electricity in 202314. WMO reports that 2024 was the warmest year on record in the South-West Pacific, with marine heatwaves covering about 40 million km²18. More than half the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast, and at least 50,000 Pacific islanders a year face displacement risk from climate change18. In 2023, 29.7% of people in Papua New Guinea were undernourished, against 2.5% in Australia13. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a regional dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and ranks no country.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the Oceania-Pacific baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
The registry holds one member, Australia. Forum members and World Bank series for Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Pacific island small states are reference groups.227
Who is in the region?Reported
Australia emitted 591.5 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024, about 21.7 t per person. The reference series are far smaller.87
Where do emissions stand?Estimated
Wind and solar supplied 33% of Australian electricity in 2025. Access is 20.5% in Papua New Guinea.2814
How is electricity supplied?Reported
2024 was the warmest year on record in the South-West Pacific, and marine heatwaves covered about 40 million km².18
How fast is the climate changing?Reported
More than half of Pacific islanders live within 500 m of the coast. The sea-level rate is not bound in this edition.1817
How exposed are coasts?Reported
29.7% of people in Papua New Guinea and 2.5% in Australia were undernourished in 2023.13
How secure is food?Reported
Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound in this edition.33
Who carries disaster losses?Not bound
A cyclone and marine-heatwave season meeting coastal exposure and thin power access. SCN-OCP-CYC-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008
More than half of the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast, and at least 50,000 Pacific islanders a year face displacement risk from climate change.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Marine heatwave area, million km² | 40 | |
| Warming above 1991–2020, tenths of °C | 0.48 |
Source: WMO State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 202418. The two bars use different units and show scale only.
Coastal exposure is a regional fact, not a national one. A storm surge, a king tide or a marine heatwave that damages reefs reaches fisheries, freshwater lenses, housing and power assets together. Response, insurance and relocation therefore need to be read across borders18.
S.4At a glance
Australia, the one country entry in the registry for this region
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a reading of Oceania-Pacific risk as exposure and access: warm oceans and sea level act on coasts, power and health together.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a cyclone warning, a hot week or a fuel shortage.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Loss series by country are not bound, and the Asian Development Bank frames resilience in its Pacific monitor.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Oceania-Pacific has strong statistics for Australia and a clear ocean-warming record, and thin national data for island states.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of Oceania-Pacific’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across Australia. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment Report 2025 (existence from search results and from [24]; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back