Oceania-Pacific Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Oceania-Pacific’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Oceania-Pacific baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. The registry holds one member, Australia. Forum members and World Bank series for Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Pacific island small states are reference groups.²²⁷

   Who is in the region?Reported

2. Australia emitted 591.5 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024, about 21.7 t per person. The reference series are far smaller.⁸⁷

   Where do emissions stand?Estimated

3. Wind and solar supplied 33% of Australian electricity in 2025. Access is 20.5% in Papua New Guinea.²⁸¹⁴

   How is electricity supplied?Reported

4. 2024 was the warmest year on record in the South-West Pacific, and marine heatwaves covered about 40 million km².¹⁸

   How fast is the climate changing?Reported

5. More than half of Pacific islanders live within 500 m of the coast. The sea-level rate is not bound in this edition.¹⁸¹⁷

   How exposed are coasts?Reported

6. 29.7% of people in Papua New Guinea and 2.5% in Australia were undernourished in 2023.¹³

   How secure is food?Reported

7. Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound in this edition.³³

   Who carries disaster losses?Not bound

8. A cyclone and marine-heatwave season meeting coastal exposure and thin power access. SCN-OCP-CYC-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

More than half of the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast, and at least 50,000 Pacific islanders a year face displacement risk from climate change.

Coastal exposure is a regional fact, not a national one. A storm surge, a king tide or a marine heatwave that damages reefs reaches fisheries, freshwater lenses, housing and power assets together. Response, insurance and relocation therefore need to be read across borders¹⁸.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment Report 2025 (existence from search results and from [24]; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Oceania-Pacific’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Oceania-Pacific matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Storm surge and flooding damage coastal assets and the loss falls on insurers, households and budgets.

   Inferred coastal exposure¹⁸; loss series not bound

2. 02

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Drought, salt intrusion and cyclone damage cut water and crops.

   Inferred no event bound

3. 03

   ENE → HLT

   Thin power access limits cooling, cold chains and clinics.

   Reported access 20.5% in Papua New Guinea¹⁴

4. 04

   CLI → HLT

   Heat raises illness and loads health services.

   Inferred national assessment²⁴; no event bound

5. 05

   TRD → ENE → all

   A fuel import disruption reaches power, transport and food on islands.

   Inferred no event bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 26World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (ed.), Noncommunicable diseases (topic page; about 12 million deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the Western Pacific Region in 2019; Pacific Islands–WHO Multi-country Cooperation Strategy 2024–2029). WHO, Manila. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable electricity output and electricity production from fossil sources (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; no value after 2021. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24Clayton Utz (ed.), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan (law firm briefing, October 2025; secondary summary of the Australian Government documents; the page and other reports give different release dates). Clayton Utz, Sydney. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

More than half of the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast, and at least 50,000 Pacific islanders a year face displacement risk from climate change.

Implication

Coastal exposure is a regional fact, not a national one. A storm surge, a king tide or a marine heatwave that damages reefs reaches fisheries, freshwater lenses, housing and power assets together. Response, insurance and relocation therefore need to be read across borders¹⁸.

What would move it

The sea-level rate for the region, cyclone counts and losses by country, coastal population by country and relocation records would each move this finding. None is bound¹⁷.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Australia emitted 591.5 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024, against 10.8 Mt for Papua New Guinea, 6.5 Mt for the Pacific island small states and 2.75 Mt for Fiji.⁸

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Australian inventory emissions were reported at about 455.6 Mt CO₂e in the year to March 2026, 1.6% lower than a year earlier and 25.0% below 2005.³⁰

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   Australia has a 2030 target of 43% below 2005 and net zero by 2050 in its Climate Change Act, and a 2035 target of 62 to 70% below 2005 reported from September 2025.³¹³²

4. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

   2024 was the warmest year on record in the South-West Pacific, about 0.48 °C above the 1991–2020 average, and marine heatwaves covered about 40 million km².¹⁸

5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

   More than half of the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast, and at least 50,000 Pacific islanders a year face displacement risk from climate change.¹⁸

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Wind and solar supplied 33% of Australian electricity in 2025, clean sources 39%, fossil fuels 61% and coal 43%.²⁸

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

   In 2023, 100% of Australians and 99.3% of people in Fiji had access to electricity, against 88.9% in the Pacific island small states and 20.5% in Papua New Guinea.¹⁴

2.4Water

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   Australia consumed 17,223 GL of water in 2023–24, up 12.9%, and agriculture, forestry and fishing used 68.3% of it; 41.9% of people in Fiji used safely managed drinking water in 2022.⁴¹⁴

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   In 2023, 29.7% of people in Papua New Guinea were undernourished, against 13.5% in the Pacific island small states, 7.0% in Fiji and 2.5% in Australia.¹³

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   Life expectancy at birth in Australia was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females in 2022–24; the World Bank series for 2023 gives 67.3 years in Fiji, 66.1 in Papua New Guinea and 69.3 in the Pacific island small states.³¹²

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   In 2024, Australia protected 22.0% of its land and 45.4% of its sea area, against 3.9% and 0.9% in Fiji, and 3.7% and 0.1% in Papua New Guinea.¹¹

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a cyclone and marine-heatwave season that meets coastal exposure and thin power access across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue; the page carries two release dates; wheat 36 million tonnes, 369 million hectares of agricultural land). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 25Asian Development Bank (ed.), Pacific Economic Monitor (series page; latest edition listed, August 2024, Building Resilience the Pacific Way; no figure used). ADB, Manila. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026 (released 2 September 2026; GDP up 0.4% in the quarter and 2.1% in the year). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population and population ages 65 and above (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024 (the Bureau host returned 403). BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-OCP-CLI-001

   Cyclone, storm surge and flood season on exposed coasts

   Driver

   tropical cyclones, king tides and sea-level rise

   Exposure

   more than half of Pacific islanders live within 500 m of the coast¹⁸

   Vulnerability

   asset condition and building standards not bound

   Capacity

   regional strategy exists²⁰; early-warning performance not bound

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, FIN, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-OCP-WAT-002

   Drought and water-access stress

   Driver

   low rainfall, saltwater intrusion and high demand

   Exposure

   farming, towns and island freshwater

   Vulnerability

   safely managed water 41.9% in Fiji¹⁴; other series not bound

   Capacity

   basin and utility capacity not bound⁴⁹

   Cascade

   WAT → FOO, HLT

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-OCP-HLT-003

   Heat and noncommunicable burden on health services

   Driver

   heat waves and chronic disease burden

   Exposure

   older adults, outdoor workers and remote communities

   Vulnerability

   life expectancy 66.1 to 83.1 years across series¹²

   Capacity

   workforce and facility data not bound²⁶

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-OCP-ENE-004

   Fuel import and grid access gaps

   Driver

   supply route change, price spike or storm damage

   Exposure

   island grids and remote communities

   Vulnerability

   access 20.5% in Papua New Guinea¹⁴; fuel stocks not bound

   Capacity

   utility and regulator capacity not bound

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, HLT

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 26World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (ed.), Noncommunicable diseases (topic page; about 12 million deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the Western Pacific Region in 2019; Pacific Islands–WHO Multi-country Cooperation Strategy 2024–2029). WHO, Manila. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24Clayton Utz (ed.), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan (law firm briefing, October 2025; secondary summary of the Australian Government documents; the page and other reports give different release dates). Clayton Utz, Sydney. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment Report 2025 (existence from search results and from [24]; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 25Asian Development Bank (ed.), Pacific Economic Monitor (series page; latest edition listed, August 2024, Building Resilience the Pacific Way; no figure used). ADB, Manila. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024 (the Bureau host returned 403). BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-OCP-CYC-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a warm-ocean season with a severe cyclone, storm surge and a marine heatwave, followed by heat on land

Analogues

2024 marine heatwaves and warmest year in the South-West Pacific¹⁸; electricity access gaps¹⁴

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → INF

   cyclone and surge damage coastal roads, ports and power lines

   coastal exposure¹⁸

2. 2

   INF → ENE

   power and fuel supply fail where access is already thin

   access 20.5% in Papua New Guinea¹⁴

3. 3

   CLI → WAT

   salt intrusion and damaged supplies cut drinking water

   no analogue bound

4. 4

   ENE → HLT

   clinics and cold chains lose power while heat follows

   no analogue bound

5. 5

   HLT → FIN

   losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

   loss series not bound

6. 6

   FIN → recovery

   rebuilding slows where cover is thin

   loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-OCP-CYC-01 would travel through Oceania-Pacific’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Oceania-Pacific 2026, scenario SCN-OCP-CYC-01 (2026); Oceania-Pacific 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Oceania-Pacific. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Oceania-Pacific’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 25Asian Development Bank (ed.), Pacific Economic Monitor (series page; latest edition listed, August 2024, Building Resilience the Pacific Way; no figure used). ADB, Manila. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 21Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent: thematic areas (seven areas; 18 members). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Boe Declaration on Regional Security (2018; listed from memory). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia and Government of Tuvalu (eds.), Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty (signed 2023; listed from memory). 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24Clayton Utz (ed.), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan (law firm briefing, October 2025; secondary summary of the Australian Government documents; the page and other reports give different release dates). Clayton Utz, Sydney. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment Report 2025 (existence from search results and from [24]; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climate Change Authority (ed.), advice on Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target (the host returned 503). Climate Change Authority, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. IPCC, Geneva, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 report launch (event page; launch date 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024 (the Bureau host returned 403). BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology (ed.), Annual Climate Statement 2025 (national mean temperature 1.23 °C above the 1961–1990 average, fourth warmest since 1910–11, from search summaries; the Bureau host returned 403). BoM, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (ed.), State of Environment and Conservation in the Pacific Islands: 2020 Regional Report (listed from memory). SPREP, Apia, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25 (released 31 March 2026; eight capital cities 18,750,888 at 30 June 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable electricity output and electricity production from fossil sources (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; no value after 2021. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area and agricultural land (AG.LND.FRST.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026 (released 2 September 2026; GDP up 0.4% in the quarter and 2.1% in the year). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue; the page carries two release dates; wheat 36 million tonnes, 369 million hectares of agricultural land). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population and population ages 65 and above (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (not read; the IRENA host returned 403). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review (the IEA country page returned 403). IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), Quarterly Energy Dynamics (latest quarter at evidence close not read; the AEMO host returned 403). AEMO, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ed.), Australian Crop Report (latest edition not read; the ABARES host returned 503). ABARES, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024 (the AIHW host returned 403). AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47. 26World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (ed.), Noncommunicable diseases (topic page; about 12 million deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the Western Pacific Region in 2019; Pacific Islands–WHO Multi-country Cooperation Strategy 2024–2029). WHO, Manila. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
49. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a cyclone and marine-heatwave season load coasts, power systems and health services across the Coral Sea and nearby islands?

   INI-OCP-CLI-01 · compound season stress; first output: dependency graph for the Coral Sea corridor.

2. A-02

   How do fuel imports and thin grid access shape the resilience of island power systems?

   INI-OCP-ENE-02 · power access and fuel; first output: access and supply register.

3. A-03

   How do drought and low storage reach farming, towns and drinking water in Australia and on island atolls?

   INI-OCP-WAT-03 · water security; first output: water access note.

4. A-04

   How much of the heat and cyclone health burden can be attributed, by country and year?

   INI-OCP-HLT-04 · heat and health; first output: attribution baseline.

5. A-05

   Where do disaster losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

   INI-OCP-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-country loss table.

6. A-06

   What is the condition of reefs and marine areas, and how is it measured across the region?

   INI-OCP-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

7. A-07

   How exposed are food output and food access to drought, heat and cyclone damage?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The Oceania-Pacific regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read Oceania-Pacific as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   Oceania-Pacific as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-OCP-2027-01 · Ocean, coast and power Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. IPCC, Geneva, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The one member country named in the series registry, Australia, read beside reference groups. Pacific island states have no subject in the registry, so their World Bank series and the Pacific Islands Forum appear only as reference groups, and neither is joined to the region on a code.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

The ocean basin, power access and the coast carry risk across borders in this region. This chapter names each system, the countries involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member country. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

To be designated

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• The regional hub is recorded as to be designated
• Hub terms of reference and contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read Oceania-Pacific as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable electricity output and electricity production from fossil sources (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; no value after 2021. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (ed.), State of Environment and Conservation in the Pacific Islands: 2020 Regional Report (listed from memory). SPREP, Apia, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), Quarterly Energy Dynamics (latest quarter at evidence close not read; the AEMO host returned 403). AEMO, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026 (released 2 September 2026; GDP up 0.4% in the quarter and 2.1% in the year). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review (the IEA country page returned 403). IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Boe Declaration on Regional Security (2018; listed from memory). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-OCP-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Oceania-Pacific as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-OCP-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

55 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-OCP-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• DCCEEW quarterly inventory update³⁰ : land-use treatment on one basis
• WMO South-West Pacific full report¹⁷ : sea-level rate
• IRENA statistics⁴⁵ : island generation mix
• Reports Foundational Edition⁵⁴ and the global baseline²⁷ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct

annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

calendar year

Source

World Bank World Development Indicators, series EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5⁸

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

differs from the national inventory figure, which includes land use³⁰

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pacific Community (ed.), PDH.stat population projections and estimates (Pacific Data Hub; the host returned 403; a search result noted a change of basis to UN World Population Prospects 2024 in April 2025). SPC, Noumea. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (not read; the IRENA host returned 403). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), Quarterly Energy Dynamics (latest quarter at evidence close not read; the AEMO host returned 403). AEMO, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024 (the AIHW host returned 403). AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ed.), Australian Crop Report (latest edition not read; the ABARES host returned 503). ABARES, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue; the page carries two release dates; wheat 36 million tonnes, 369 million hectares of agricultural land). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (ed.), State of Environment and Conservation in the Pacific Islands: 2020 Regional Report (listed from memory). SPREP, Apia, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: Oceania-Pacific by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 1 member countries named in the series registry.

Member population¹

B.4Atlas card: South-West Pacific ocean basin

• basin
• shared ocean system
• coast, reef and fisheries
• reference group: Pacific Islands Forum

Systems in view

ocean heat, coasts, power and food

Defining instruments

2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent²⁰; Paris Agreement³⁷

Couplings

CLI → INF → FIN; CLI → WAT → FOO

Capability evidence

a regional forum with 18 members exists²²; performance not bound

Gaps

sea-level rate, cyclone losses and reef condition

Agenda items

A-01

B.5Oceania-Pacific system card

The card through which Oceania-Pacific appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

one registry member beside a wider group of island states, linked by an ocean basin

Population

27.92 million in Australia (31 March 2026)¹; Papua New Guinea 10.58 million⁷

Economy

GDP per person US$64,610 in Australia and US$4,528 in the Pacific island small states, 2024⁹

Hazard

2024 the warmest year on record in the South-West Pacific¹⁸

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-OCP-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (not read; the IRENA host returned 403). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024 (the AIHW host returned 403). AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25 (released 31 March 2026; eight capital cities 18,750,888 at 30 June 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable electricity output and electricity production from fossil sources (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; no value after 2021. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 report launch (event page; launch date 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area and agricultural land (AG.LND.FRST.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 21Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent: thematic areas (seven areas; 18 members). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 24Clayton Utz (ed.), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan (law firm briefing, October 2025; secondary summary of the Australian Government documents; the page and other reports give different release dates). Clayton Utz, Sydney. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 55S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Edition 2026 for Australia (draft; the specification and edition notes were read, not the built pack). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.155 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25 (released 31 March 2026; eight capital cities 18,750,888 at 30 June 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
3. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
4. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026 (released 2 September 2026; GDP up 0.4% in the quarter and 2.1% in the year). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue; the page carries two release dates; wheat 36 million tonnes, 369 million hectares of agricultural land). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
7. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable electricity output and electricity production from fossil sources (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; no value after 2021. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area and agricultural land (AG.LND.FRST.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
16. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population and population ages 65 and above (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
17. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
19. 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 report launch (event page; launch date 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
20. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent: thematic areas (seven areas; 18 members). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
22. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24Clayton Utz (ed.), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan (law firm briefing, October 2025; secondary summary of the Australian Government documents; the page and other reports give different release dates). Clayton Utz, Sydney. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25Asian Development Bank (ed.), Pacific Economic Monitor (series page; latest edition listed, August 2024, Building Resilience the Pacific Way; no figure used). ADB, Manila. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (ed.), Noncommunicable diseases (topic page; about 12 million deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the Western Pacific Region in 2019; Pacific Islands–WHO Multi-country Cooperation Strategy 2024–2029). WHO, Manila. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
27. 27S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
28. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology (ed.), Annual Climate Statement 2025 (national mean temperature 1.23 °C above the 1961–1990 average, fourth warmest since 1910–11, from search summaries; the Bureau host returned 403). BoM, Melbourne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment Report 2025 (existence from search results and from [24]; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Boe Declaration on Regional Security (2018; listed from memory). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia and Government of Tuvalu (eds.), Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty (signed 2023; listed from memory). 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. IPCC, Geneva, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pacific Community (ed.), PDH.stat population projections and estimates (Pacific Data Hub; the host returned 403; a search result noted a change of basis to UN World Population Prospects 2024 in April 2025). SPC, Noumea. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (not read; the IRENA host returned 403). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review (the IEA country page returned 403). IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), Quarterly Energy Dynamics (latest quarter at evidence close not read; the AEMO host returned 403). AEMO, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ed.), Australian Crop Report (latest edition not read; the ABARES host returned 503). ABARES, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024 (the AIHW host returned 403). AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climate Change Authority (ed.), advice on Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target (the host returned 503). Climate Change Authority, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
52. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024 (the Bureau host returned 403). BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
53. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (ed.), State of Environment and Conservation in the Pacific Islands: 2020 Regional Report (listed from memory). SPREP, Apia, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
54. 54UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
55. 55S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Edition 2026 for Australia (draft; the specification and edition notes were read, not the built pack). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

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