Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four regional risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

5 min read0 figures1 table17 notesNR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Oceania-Pacific’s risk is set by ocean, coast and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Cyclone and marine-heatwave season across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-OCP-CLI-001

    Cyclone, storm surge and flood season on exposed coasts

    Driver
    tropical cyclones, king tides and sea-level rise
    Exposure
    more than half of Pacific islanders live within 500 m of the coast18
    Vulnerability
    asset condition and building standards not bound
    Capacity
    regional strategy exists20; early-warning performance not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, FIN, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. InferredEQL 3RSK-OCP-WAT-002

    Drought and water-access stress

    Driver
    low rainfall, saltwater intrusion and high demand
    Exposure
    farming, towns and island freshwater
    Vulnerability
    safely managed water 41.9% in Fiji14; other series not bound
    Capacity
    basin and utility capacity not bound49
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, HLT
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-OCP-HLT-003

    Heat and noncommunicable burden on health services

    Driver
    heat waves and chronic disease burden
    Exposure
    older adults, outdoor workers and remote communities
    Vulnerability
    life expectancy 66.1 to 83.1 years across series12
    Capacity
    workforce and facility data not bound26
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE peak
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-OCP-ENE-004

    Fuel import and grid access gaps

    Driver
    supply route change, price spike or storm damage
    Exposure
    island grids and remote communities
    Vulnerability
    access 20.5% in Papua New Guinea14; fuel stocks not bound
    Capacity
    utility and regulator capacity not bound
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FOO, HLT
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSAustralia’s Climate Change Act and 2035 target are reported3132
Monitoring and observationEXISTSABS, World Bank and WMO series are published1818
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: meteorological services · blocker: not retrieved
Preparedness and planningLISTEDAustralian national climate risk assessment and adaptation plan issued2433; delivery not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: fuel and water stock registers · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: after-action records for cyclone and flood events · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility continuity records · blocker: not published
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery agency and insurer records · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDAustralian adaptation plan and Forum 2050 Strategy exist2024; delivery not bound
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: income-support and disaster-payment records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurer and reinsurer loss data · blocker: not retrieved; regional resilience framing exists25
Institutional coordinationEXISTSthe Pacific Islands Forum has 18 members and a Strategic Plan 2025 to 20302223; performance not bound
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: asset-condition registers · blocker: not published
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and emergency workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTSWMO, IPCC and national assessments are published183952
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 26World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (ed.), Noncommunicable diseases (topic page; about 12 million deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the Western Pacific Region in 2019; Pacific Islands–WHO Multi-country Cooperation Strategy 2024–2029). WHO, Manila. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 24Clayton Utz (ed.), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan (law firm briefing, October 2025; secondary summary of the Australian Government documents; the page and other reports give different release dates). Clayton Utz, Sydney. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Government (ed.), National Climate Risk Assessment Report 2025 (existence from search results and from [24]; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 25Asian Development Bank (ed.), Pacific Economic Monitor (series page; latest edition listed, August 2024, Building Resilience the Pacific Way; no figure used). ADB, Manila. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024 (the Bureau host returned 403). BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Oceania-Pacific Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Oceania-Pacific’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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