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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables20 notesNR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Oceania-Pacific’s risk is set by ocean, coast and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Cyclone and marine-heatwave season across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Water consumed in Australia

17,223GL

Agriculture, forestry and fishing used 11,760 GL, 68.3% of the total. Households used 1,868 GL.

Reported2023–24ABS4

ENE · Energy

Wind and solar share of Australian electricity

33%

Fossil fuels supplied 61% and coal 43%. In Papua New Guinea 20.5% of people had electricity access.

Reported2025Ember28 · World Bank14

FOO · Food

People undernourished, Papua New Guinea

29.7%

Australia 2.5%, Fiji 7.0%, Pacific island small states 13.5%.

Reported2023World Bank13

HLT · Health

Life expectancy at birth, Australia, males and females

81.1 and 85.1years

World Bank series for 2023: Fiji 67.3, Papua New Guinea 66.1, Pacific island small states 69.3 years.

Reported2022–24ABS3 · World Bank12

BIO · Biodiversity

Marine area protected, Australia

45.4%

Terrestrial: Australia 22.0%, Fiji 3.9%, Papua New Guinea 3.7%. Marine: Fiji 0.9%, Papua New Guinea 0.1%.

Reported2024World Bank11

SYS · Cross-system

Pacific islanders facing displacement risk from climate change each year, at least

50,000people

More than half of the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast.

Reported2024WMO18

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATAustralia used 17,223 GL in 2023–24, 68.3% for agriculture, forestry and fishing4. Safely managed drinking water 41.9% in Fiji in 202214.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 5
ENEWind and solar 33% of Australian electricity in 202528. Access 20.5% in Papua New Guinea in 202314.ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOUndernourishment 29.7% in Papua New Guinea and 2.5% in Australia in 202313. Farm output after 2022 not bound6.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 4
HLTLife expectancy 81.1 and 85.1 years in Australia3; 66.1 in Papua New Guinea in 202312. Heat burden not bound.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 4
BIOAustralia protects 22.0% of land and 45.4% of sea11. Condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 4
CLI2024 the warmest year on record in the South-West Pacific; marine heatwaves 40 million km²18.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFCoastal infrastructure within 500 m of the shore for more than half of Pacific islanders18. Asset condition not bound.INF → allReported EQL 4
FINInsured and uninsured loss series not bound; the Asian Development Bank frames resilience in its Pacific monitor25.FIN ← CLINot bound EQL 1
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDFuel and food import dependence of island states is not bound; Australian energy flows are recorded in ABS accounts5.TRD → allInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound cyclone, heat and coastal stresscyclone season over exposed coastsPARTIAL
GS-01Water17,223 GL used in Australia4drought and access on islandsPARTIAL
GS-02Energywind and solar 33% in Australia28; access 20.5% in Papua New Guinea14fuel and grid accessGOOD
GS-03Foodundernourishment 29.7% in Papua New Guinea13cyclone and drought damagePARTIAL
GS-04Healthlife expectancy 66.1 to 83.1 years across series12heat and noncommunicable burdenPARTIAL
GS-05Financeloss series not boundprotection gapTHIN
GS-06DevelopmentGDP per person US$64,610 in Australia, US$4,528 in the Pacific island small states9income spreadPARTIAL
GS-07Climatewarmest year in the South-West Pacific18; 2035 target reported31heat, cyclone and sea levelGOOD
GS-08Disasterdisplacement risk for 50,000 a year18compound and sequential eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructurecoastal exposure of more than half of islanders18asset condition not boundTHIN
GS-10CitiesAustralia 87.6% urban; Papua New Guinea 15.4%16urban heat; coastal townsPARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversity45.4% of Australian sea protected11condition not boundPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationWMO regional assessment published1718continuity of recordsGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyForum 2050 Strategy and Strategic Plan2023; Australian targets3132coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15ScienceWMO, IPCC and national assessments183952translation to island statesPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 6Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2021–22 (final issue; the page carries two release dates; wheat 36 million tonnes, 369 million hectares of agricultural land). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 25Asian Development Bank (ed.), Pacific Economic Monitor (series page; latest edition listed, August 2024, Building Resilience the Pacific Way; no figure used). ADB, Manila. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026 (released 2 September 2026; GDP up 0.4% in the quarter and 2.1% in the year). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Australia (ed.), Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (62 to 70% below 2005; reported in a news summary found by search, base year and date not confirmed). Submission to the UNFCCC, September 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population and population ages 65 and above (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UN Population Division. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Australia (ed.), Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth) (2030 target of 43% below 2005 from a search summary; net zero by 2050 from memory). Canberra, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (eds.), State of the Climate 2024 (the Bureau host returned 403). BoM and CSIRO, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Oceania-Pacific Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Oceania-Pacific’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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