Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables22 notesNR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Oceania-Pacific’s risk is set by ocean, coast and distance
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Cyclone and marine-heatwave season across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The one member country named in the series registry, Australia, read beside reference groups. Pacific island states have no subject in the registry, so their World Bank series and the Pacific Islands Forum appear only as reference groups, and neither is joined to the region on a code.

27.92million

Australia population, 31 March 20261

591.5Mt CO₂e

Australia emissions excluding land use, 20248

33%

wind and solar share of Australian electricity, 202528

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
Australiapopulation 27.92 million; emissions 591.5 Mt, about 21.7 t per person; wind and solar 33% of electricity; 22.0% of land and 45.4% of sea protected; water use 17,223 GL1828114Reported
Pacific Islands Forum reference group18 members including Australia and New Zealand, and four associate members; the registry holds only Australia22Reported
Papua New Guinea, World Bank seriespopulation 10.58 million; emissions 10.8 Mt; electricity access 20.5%; undernourishment 29.7%; life expectancy 66.1 years78141312Reported
Fiji, World Bank seriespopulation 0.93 million; emissions 2.75 Mt; renewables 60.1% of generation in 2021; safely managed drinking water 41.9% in 2022781014Reported
Pacific island small states, World Bank aggregatepopulation 2.72 million; emissions 6.5 Mt; electricity access 88.9%; undernourishment 13.5%; 7.1% of sea area protected78141311Reported

Couplings across members

  • CLI → INF → FIN across exposed coasts of Australia and its neighbours
  • ENE → HLT where grid access is thin
  • CLI → WAT → FOO through drought and storm damage
  • FIN ← CLI losses carried by insurers and budgets

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Pacific island state editions
  • cyclone loss series by country
  • Pacific electricity mix after 2021

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

The ocean basin, power access and the coast carry risk across borders in this region. This chapter names each system, the countries involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

40million km²

marine heatwave area, 202418

18members

Pacific Islands Forum22

just over 1%

regional share of global emissions, as the Forum states20

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
South-West Pacific ocean basinAustralia and the island states of the wider Pacific; WMO region18Reported
Coral Sea and Great Barrier ReefAustralia and Papua New Guinea; no condition source read53NOT BOUND
Murray-Darling BasinAustralia only; storage not bound49NOT BOUND
Pacific island coastsForum members; more than half of islanders within 500 m of the coast18Reported
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Australian National Electricity Marketwind and solar 33% of national electricity in 2025; market data not bound2847Reported
Island power systemsaccess 20.5% in Papua New Guinea and 88.9% in the Pacific island small states, 202314Reported
Fuel supplyisland dependence on imported fuel not bound; Australian energy flows in ABS accounts546NOT BOUND
Regional cooperationForum Strategic Plan 2025 to 2030 and 2050 Strategy2023Reported
Climate-security linkBoe Declaration treats climate change as a security issue; not read34Inferred

Couplings through shared systems

  • CLI → INF → FIN storm damage and loss across borders
  • ENE → HLT access gaps into clinics and cold chains
  • TRD → ENE fuel route change into island power
  • WAT → FOO drought and salt intrusion into crops

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • sea-level rate
  • cyclone losses by country
  • island fuel stocks
  • basin storage

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member country. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
To be designated
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
not named in the registryAustraliaG20in preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • The regional hub is recorded as to be designated
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read Oceania-Pacific as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubthe registry records the hub as to be designatedOPENdesignation before Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-OCP-2027-Q1
Member editionsAustralia in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Whether Pacific island states are admitted as registry subjects
  • Designation of a regional hub, terms of reference and contact points
  • The route from the Forum reference group to any registry record

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Energy, water and health policy rest with national governments
  • Regional strategy rests with the Pacific Islands Forum; this edition cites it and decides nothing
  • The Forum is not merged with Oceania-Pacific on code

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable electricity output and electricity production from fossil sources (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; no value after 2021. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (ed.), State of Environment and Conservation in the Pacific Islands: 2020 Regional Report (listed from memory). SPREP, Apia, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Energy Market Operator (ed.), Quarterly Energy Dynamics (latest quarter at evidence close not read; the AEMO host returned 403). AEMO, Melbourne. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 5Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2026 (released 2 September 2026; GDP up 0.4% in the quarter and 2.1% in the year). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Australia 2023: Energy Policy Review (the IEA country page returned 403). IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Boe Declaration on Regional Security (2018; listed from memory). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Oceania-Pacific Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Oceania-Pacific’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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