- Oceania-Pacific 2026
- Annex B
Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Oceania-Pacific’s risk is set by ocean, coast and distance
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Cyclone and marine-heatwave season across the Coral Sea and nearby island coasts
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia population | 27.92 | million | 31 Mar 2026 | Reported | 1 |
| Australia population, World Bank series | 27.19 | million | 2024 | Reported | 7 |
| Papua New Guinea population | 10.58 | million | 2024 | Reported | 7 |
| Pacific island small states population | 2.72 | million | 2024 | Reported | 7 |
| Fiji population | 0.93 | million | 2024 | Reported | 7 |
| Australia emissions excluding land use | 591.5 | Mt CO₂e | 2024 | Reported | 8 |
| Australia emissions per person | 21.7 | t CO₂e | 2024 | Estimated | 8 |
| Papua New Guinea emissions per person | 1.02 | t CO₂e | 2024 | Estimated | 8 |
| Wind and solar share of Australian electricity | 33 | % | 2025 | Reported | 28 |
| Electricity access, Papua New Guinea | 20.5 | % | 2023 | Reported | 14 |
| Electricity access, Pacific island small states | 88.9 | % | 2023 | Reported | 14 |
| Marine heatwave area | 40 | million km² | 2024 | Reported | 18 |
| Pacific islanders at risk of displacement, at least | 50,000 | people a year | 2024 | Reported | 18 |
| Water consumed, Australia | 17,223 | GL | 2023–24 | Reported | 4 |
| People undernourished, Papua New Guinea | 29.7 | % | 2023 | Reported | 13 |
| Marine area protected, Australia | 45.4 | % | 2024 | Reported | 11 |
| Sea-level rise rate, South-West Pacific | Not bound | mm a year | n/a | NOT BOUND | 17 |
| Pacific island electricity mix after 2021 | Not bound | % | n/a | NOT BOUND | 45 |
| Murray-Darling Basin storage | Not bound | % | n/a | NOT BOUND | 49 |
| Heat-related deaths, Australia | Not bound | deaths | n/a | NOT BOUND | 50 |
B.2Regional source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- WAT
- ENE
- FOO
- HLT
- BIO
- CLI
- INF
- FIN
- TRD
- MIN
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population127 | national statistics and indicator database | Australia, reference series | 2024–2026 | quarterly and annual | profile |
| Emissions830 | indicator database and agency | Australia, reference series | 2024–2026 | annual and quarterly | CLI |
| Electricity101428 | indicator database and think tank | Australia, reference series | 2021–2025 | annual | ENE |
| Regional climate171819 | agency assessment | region | 2024 | annual | CLI |
| Water414 | national statistics | Australia, Fiji | 2022–2024 | annual | WAT |
| Food and health31213 | statistics and indicator database | Australia, reference series | 2022–2024 | annual | FOO, HLT |
| Protected areas1115 | indicator database | Australia, reference series | 2022–2024 | annual | BIO |
| Regional strategy20212223 | regional body | Forum members | 2022–2026 | periodic | policy |
B.3Regional reading: Oceania-Pacific by member country
Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 1 member countries named in the series registry.
Member population1
Australia
| Member | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | warmest-year and marine-heatwave signals for the South-West Pacific18; national hazard assessment issued24 | water, energy, climate | population 27.92 million; emissions 591.5 Mt; wind and solar 33%; 22.0% of land and 45.4% of sea protected182811; national edition in preparation55 |
B.4Atlas card: South-West Pacific ocean basin
- basin
- shared ocean system
- coast, reef and fisheries
- reference group: Pacific Islands Forum
- Systems in view
- ocean heat, coasts, power and food
- Defining instruments
- 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent20; Paris Agreement37
- Couplings
- CLI → INF → FIN; CLI → WAT → FOO
- Capability evidence
- a regional forum with 18 members exists22; performance not bound
- Gaps
- sea-level rate, cyclone losses and reef condition
- Agenda items
- A-01
The WMO assessment reports marine heatwaves over about 40 million km² and a record-warm year in the South-West Pacific in 2024 [18]. Basin-wide sea-level series are not bound.
OCEAN
A shared ocean system
More than half of the people of the Pacific islands live within 500 m of the coast [18]. Coastal population by country is not bound.
COAST
Where people live
Source: utility and regulator records. Blocker: not retrieved at evidence close. The World Bank access series is in the dashboard [14].
POWER
Access and fuel
B.5Oceania-Pacific system card
The card through which Oceania-Pacific appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.
| System | Baseline state | Coupling to watch | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water | Australia used 17,223 GL in 2023–244; access outside Fiji not bound14 | drought into farming and towns | PARTIAL |
| Energy | wind and solar 33% in Australia28; access 20.5% in Papua New Guinea14 | fuel and grid access | PARTIAL |
| Food | undernourishment 29.7% in Papua New Guinea13 | cyclone and drought damage | THIN |
| Health | life expectancy 81.1 and 85.1 years in Australia3 | heat and chronic disease load | PARTIAL |
| Biodiversity | 45.4% of Australian sea area protected11 | condition not bound | THIN |
Context
- Archetype
- one registry member beside a wider group of island states, linked by an ocean basin
- Population
- 27.92 million in Australia (31 March 2026)1; Papua New Guinea 10.58 million7
- Economy
- GDP per person US$64,610 in Australia and US$4,528 in the Pacific island small states, 20249
- Hazard
- 2024 the warmest year on record in the South-West Pacific18
The member editions (Australia) and this regional edition share finding identifiers where they read the same evidence, so a correction travels to every edition at once.
MEMBER EDITIONS
Same findings, same IDs
Oceania-Pacific evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers.
GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES
Regional evidence, sector reports
In the global edition Oceania-Pacific is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.
GLOBAL FLAGSHIP
Peers, not ranks
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-REGIONAL-OCP-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- NQ-REG-OCP-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 September 2026; 27,921,150 residents, up 392,700 or 1.4%). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states (source updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: Ember (ed.), Australia electricity profile (page last updated 30 October 2026; 2025: wind and solar 33%, clean 39%, fossil 61%, coal 43%; no 2024 value and no TWh on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, 2023) and people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, 2022; value returned for Fiji only), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Ocean heat and sea-level rise threaten communities in the South-West Pacific (news release on the 2024 report; 0.48 °C above 1991–2020, about 40 million km² of marine heatwaves, more than half of Pacific islanders within 500 m of the coast, at least 50,000 islanders a year at displacement risk). WMO, Geneva, June 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Water Account, Australia, 2023–24 (released 11 December 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 (series page, published 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (not read; the IRENA host returned 403). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Murray-Darling Basin Authority (ed.), Basin water storage (storage on 1 November 2026 not read; the host returned 403). MDBA, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (ed.), Australia’s Health 2024 (the AIHW host returned 403). AIHW, Canberra, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Regional population, 2024–25 (released 31 March 2026; eight capital cities 18,750,888 at 30 June 2025). ABS, Canberra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: March 2026 (released 28 August 2026; about 455.6 Mt CO₂e, down 1.6%, 25.0% below 2005; preliminary June 2026 estimate 452.4 Mt; all from search summaries; the department host returned 503). DCCEEW, Canberra. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable electricity output and electricity production from fossil sources (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS, EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; no value after 2021. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 report launch (event page; launch date 5 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Australian Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Life expectancy, 2022–2024 (released 11 November 2025; 81.1 years for males, 85.1 for females). ABS, Canberra. Observation years 2022–24. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth, total (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area and agricultural land (AG.LND.FRST.ZS, AG.LND.AGRI.ZS), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states; upstream FAO. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent (page opened; Implementation Plan 2023–2030; strategy document dated August 2022; regional emissions just over 1% of the global total). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent: thematic areas (seven areas; 18 members). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Pacific Islands Forum (ed.), Forum members (18 members, four associate members; Secretariat in Suva). Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Pacific Islands News Association (ed.), Forum strategic plan sets six priorities to drive 2050 Blue Pacific vision (news report, 5 August 2026; Strategic Plan 2025–2030). PINA, Suva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Clayton Utz (ed.), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment Report and National Adaptation Plan (law firm briefing, October 2025; secondary summary of the Australian Government documents; the page and other reports give different release dates). Clayton Utz, Sydney. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 55S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Edition 2026 for Australia (draft; the specification and edition notes were read, not the built pack). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Pacific island small states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
