Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Saudi Arabia enters 2027 as a hot, arid, hydrocarbon-exporting economy of 35.3 million people that is building a very large renewable fleet while still burning gas and oil for almost all of its electricity13. Its reported emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019, and energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use3. The second climate contribution, submitted at the end of 2025, aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline it does not publish, sets no target for 2035, and names net zero for 2060234. Gas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024, and solar and wind 2%, although 12.3 GW of renewable capacity was connected by the end of 2025237. Water is the binding constraint: non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural supply in 2023, agriculture was the largest user, and the national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated213. Heat is a direct health hazard, as the 1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj show11. The kingdom imports most of its grain: FAO forecast 15 million tonnes of cereal imports for 2026/275. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for these systems, maps the couplings through which heat, water, power and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Saudi Arabia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019. Later years are not bound.3

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against an unpublished baseline; no 2035 target.24

    What is the climate aim?Reported

  3. Gas 63%, oil 35%, solar and wind 2% in 2024; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.23

    How is electricity made?Reported

  4. Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural supply in 2023.13

    How exposed is water?Reported

  5. FAO forecast 15 million tonnes of cereal imports for 2026/27. The import share of food is not bound.5

    How secure is food?Reported

  6. 1,301 deaths were reported during the 2024 Hajj. A national heat series is not bound.11

    Is heat a health hazard?Reported

  7. Jeddah had 179 mm of rain in one day in November 2022.10

    What does a flash flood look like?Reported

  8. A summer heat peak loading power, desalination and health services together. SCN-SAU-HTW-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³ of water, of which 9,356 million m³ came from non-renewable groundwater.

Figure S.1Agricultural water use in 2023 (million m³)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
All sources12,298
Non-renewable groundwater9,356

Source: GASTAT Water Accounts 2023, read through a press report13.

A supply that draws on fossil aquifers is a stock being spent. Satellite gravity data show storage falling by about 13 km³ a year in 2006–2016, and the 2009 national balance showed agriculture taking more than 80% of demand1516. Desalination covers the cities but needs power, so water, energy and food are tied together.

S.4At a glance

35.3million

population, 20241

63%

of residents under 30, as stated in the national submission2

709Mt CO₂e

emissions incl. land use, 20213

63%

gas share of electricity, 20243

≈70%

of potable water desalinated, per the national submission2

>80%

of land is desert, per the national submission2

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Saudi Arabia’s risk: heat, scarce water and a fossil-based power system act together.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most residents risk arrives as a summer of extreme heat, a sudden flood or a water-supply question.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Oil revenue carries the public budget, and insurance and reserve data are not bound.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Saudi Arabia is building quickly on supply and thinner on published data for heat illness, reserves and lifeline continuity.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Saudi Arabia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  2. 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
  3. 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  5. 7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
  6. 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
  7. 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  8. 5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  9. 10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  10. 15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
  11. 16M. A. Chowdhury and M. M. Al-Zahrani, “Characterising water resources and trends of sector wise water consumptions in Saudi Arabia,” Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 68–82, 2015. Observation year 2009.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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