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Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no region.

7 min read2 figures2 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Saudi Arabia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Saudi Arabia is a hot desert country with very little rain, a young and growing population, and an economy that still rests on hydrocarbon exports. This baseline reads its exposure as four forces acting together: extreme heat, scarce water, a power system that runs on gas and oil, and a dependence on imported food and on oil revenue26.

The climate layer is rising. Temperatures rose by about 0.6 °C a decade between 1978 and 2019, and the rise has speeded up in recent decades17. Regional climate studies project that heat and humidity around the Gulf could approach the limit of human adaptability late in the century under high emissions1819. Rain is rare but violent: Jeddah recorded 179 mm in one day in November 202210. The National Center for Meteorology described 2025 as within normal ranges, without a published annual anomaly9.

Water is the binding constraint. Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural supply in 2023 and agriculture was the largest user13. Satellite gravity data show groundwater storage falling by about 13 km³ a year between 2006 and 201615. Desalination supplies the cities: the national submission puts it at around 70% of potable water, while the GASTAT accounts give 50% of distributed water, and the two measures differ213.

The energy layer links water, heat and emissions. Gas and oil gave 98% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%38. Renewable capacity connected to the grid reached 12.3 GW by the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered27. Power also runs desalination, so a summer peak is a water question as well as an energy question.

Beneath these sits dependence on imports and on oil. FAO forecast 15 million tonnes of cereal imports for 2026/275, and oil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports6. Heat reaches people directly during the Hajj: 1,301 deaths were reported in 2024, most of them unauthorised pilgrims11.

Figure 1.1How is electricity made, and what has changed? Generation by source (% of total)

Gas generation grew from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024, a rise of about 29%. Connected renewable capacity reached 12.3 GW by the end of 2025, so the 2025 mix is likely to differ and is not bound237.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Gas63
Oil35
Solar and wind2

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-01-003

288TWh

gas generation, 20243

12.3GW

renewable capacity connected, end 20252

57.5GW

renewable capacity tendered2

1.3Mt a year

CO₂ captured by current projects2

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Saudi Arabia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
nuclear cooling · hydro		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		MODERATE
drinking water		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
facility power · cooling		MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients		WEAK
biofuel feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
fire on lines · biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · smoke		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → ENE → WAT

    A heat peak raises power demand, and desalination needs the power.

    Inferred summer peak; not bound for 2025

  2. 02

    CLI → HLT

    Heat loads health services and mass gatherings.

    Reported Hajj 202411

  3. 03

    CLI → INF

    A single rain event closes roads and schools in a city.

    Reported Jeddah 202210

  4. 04

    WAT → FOO

    Fossil groundwater supports irrigated farming.

    Reported accounts 202313

  5. 05

    TRD → FIN

    Oil export revenue carries the national budget.

    Reported IMF 20266

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  2. 6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back
  3. 17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back
  4. 18J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection.back
  5. 19J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection.back
  6. 10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  7. 9National Center for Meteorology (ed.), statement that the 2025 climate was moderate, reported in “NCM: Saudi Arabia experienced a moderate climate in 2025,” Riyadh Daily, 30 November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
  9. 15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
  10. 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
  11. 8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  12. 7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
  13. 5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  14. 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once. In Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Saudi Arabia.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Heatwave

Cooling demand peaks the grid while rivers warm; heat stress fills hospitals and wilts crops.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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