- Saudi Arabia 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of Saudi Arabia’s risk: heat, scarce water and a fossil-based power system act together. Evidence is strongest for emissions targets, water accounts and trade, and weakest for heat illness, infrastructure condition and capability.
CLI-001 · WAT-005 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most residents risk arrives as a summer of extreme heat, a sudden flood or a water-supply question. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a young, growing and largely urban population is exposed, and how pilgrims and workers are protected.
HLT-009 · CLI-008
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Oil revenue carries the public budget, and insurance and reserve data are not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.
FIN-011 · SYS-012
NEXUS
Synthesis
Saudi Arabia is building quickly on supply and thinner on published data for heat illness, reserves and lifeline continuity. The 2027 programme should map heat–power–water dependencies, test the summer peak, and bind the missing series.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Saudi Arabia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Saudi Arabia | national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups | national Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Most of the natural supply is fossil groundwater, and the cities live on desalinated seawater. The baseline treats water as a coupling problem: every cubic metre desalinated needs power, and every irrigated hectare draws on the aquifer.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Water is the stock that is being spent
In a country this hot, extreme heat is not an exception. It sets how outdoor work, pilgrimage and urban life are organised, and it rises with warming. Published series on heat illness are the missing evidence.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Heat is a design condition
The second climate contribution names 2040 and 2060 but not the baseline behind them. A baseline edition can say what is observed and name what is missing, so that later editions can test progress.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
A target without a baseline
Renewable capacity has grown fast and still gives a small share of generation, while grain and feed arrive by sea. Energy and food security are trade questions as much as domestic ones.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Supply is built, demand is imported
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First Q1 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | National risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | NWG delivery register | no groups yet | first monthly outputs |
| E5 | NNC capability register | membership opens in Q1 2027 | first contributions |
| E6 | NLC questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | environment prepared | first sealed cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first correction cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement · second NDC, 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040, net zero 2060235 | UNFCCC · Saudi Arabia | national | SUBMITTED 2025 | emissions pathway |
| Updated first NDC, 278 Mt CO₂e a year by 203026 | UNFCCC · Saudi Arabia | national | SUBMITTED 2021 | emissions pathway |
| Saudi Vision 203024 | Government of Saudi Arabia | national | PUBLISHED 2016 | economic diversification |
| Saudi Green Initiative25 | Government of Saudi Arabia | national | LAUNCHED 2021 | land and sea protection |
| National Renewable Energy Program2 | Government of Saudi Arabia | national | IN OPERATION | power mix |
| Midday outdoor-work rule, 15 June to 15 September12 | Ministry of Human Resources | national | IN FORCE 2025 | heat protection |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework34 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
| Sendai Framework33 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk reduction |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about Saudi Arabia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPCC Synthesis Report32 | assessment | 2023 | context | forcing |
| McElwee et al. (eds.)37 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.38 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Almazroui17 | journal article | 2020 | supports | warming trend |
| Pal and Eltahir18 | journal article | 2016 | supports | heat limits |
| Foundational Edition40 | edition | 2026 | framework | method and positions |
| Global baseline41 | edition | 2026 | framework | global context |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lelieveld et al.19 | journal article | 2016 | supports | heat extremes |
| Mohamed et al.15 | journal article | 2022 | supports | groundwater |
| Chowdhury and Al-Zahrani16 | journal article | 2015 | supports | water demand |
| WMO State of the Climate in Asia44 | assessment | 2025 | context | regional climate |
| IEA Global Energy Review36 | assessment | 2025 | context | energy |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population estimates142 | GASTAT · UN DESA | 2024 | supports | profile |
| Water Accounts13 | GASTAT | 2023 | supports | water |
| Household Environment Statistics14 | GASTAT | 2024 | context | drinking water |
| Health status bulletin22 | GASTAT | 2024 | context | health |
| Life expectancy statement21 and global statistics39 | Ministry of Health · WHO | 2025 | context | health |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second NDC2 | Government of Saudi Arabia | 2025 | supports | climate aim |
| Article IV consultation6 | IMF | 2026 | supports | economy |
| GIEWS country brief5 | FAO | 2026 | supports | food |
| Capacity statistics7 | IRENA | 2026 | supports | renewables |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
- 26Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
- 24Council of Economic and Development Affairs (ed.), Saudi Vision 2030. Government of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
- 25Government of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative: protecting land and sea. Riyadh, launched 2021, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2021.back
- 12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
- 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
- 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 23United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (ed.), COP16 Riyadh: sand and dust storm monitoring initiative, announced 11 December 2024. UNCCD, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
- 27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021.back
- 32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
- 37P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
- 38J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
- 17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back
- 18J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection.back
- 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
- 41S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
- 19J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection.back
- 15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
- 16M. A. Chowdhury and M. M. Al-Zahrani, “Characterising water resources and trends of sector wise water consumptions in Saudi Arabia,” Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 68–82, 2015. Observation year 2009.back
- 44World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
- 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
- 1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
- 42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
- 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
- 14General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Household Environment Statistics 2024, reported by Saudi Gazette, Riyadh, November 2025. Observation year 2024.back
- 22General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Health Status Statistics Bulletin 2024, reported by Zawya, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
- 21Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement that life expectancy reached 78.8 years in 2024, reported by Asharq Al-Awsat, 21 April 2025. Observation year 2024.back
- 39World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
- 6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back
- 5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
- 7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
- 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
- 8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back