Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Food
    7. 2.7 Finance
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³ of water, of which 9,356 million m³ came from non-renewable groundwater.

Figure 2.1Agricultural water use in 2023 (million m³)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
All sources12,298
Non-renewable groundwater9,356

Source: GASTAT Water Accounts 2023, read through a press report13.

Implication

A supply that draws on fossil aquifers is a stock being spent. Satellite gravity data show storage falling by about 13 km³ a year in 2006–2016, and the 2009 national balance showed agriculture taking more than 80% of demand1516. Desalination covers the cities but needs power, so water, energy and food are tied together.

What would move it

The next Water Accounts, any published aquifer balance, and the share of desalination powered by renewables would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019; energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.327

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The second climate contribution aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline that is not published, with no 2035 target and net zero in 2060.234

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    Temperatures rose by 0.60 °C a decade at the daily maximum and 0.64 °C a decade at the minimum between 1978 and 2019, and projections for the region approach human heat limits.171819

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    Jeddah recorded 179 mm of rain on 24 November 2022, more than the 2009 peak, and flooding closed roads and schools.10

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Gas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%; gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024.38

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Renewable capacity connected to the grid was 12.3 GW at the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered and 10.7 GW under construction.27

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³, of which 9,356 million m³ was non-renewable groundwater.1316

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

    The national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated; the GASTAT water accounts give 50% of distributed water for 2023. The two measures differ.213

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    The Health Minister reported 1,301 deaths during the 2024 Hajj, 83% of them unauthorised pilgrims; the cause split was not given. A midday outdoor-work rule ran from 15 June to 15 September 2025.1112

2.6Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-010

    FAO forecast cereal import needs of 15 million tonnes for 2026/27, while the 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million tonnes.5

2.7Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Oil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports; the IMF projects growth of 1.7% in 2026 and a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2025.6

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and health services together during a mass gathering. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
  2. 15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
  3. 16M. A. Chowdhury and M. M. Al-Zahrani, “Characterising water resources and trends of sector wise water consumptions in Saudi Arabia,” Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 68–82, 2015. Observation year 2009.back
  4. 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
  5. 27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021.back
  6. 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  7. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back
  9. 18J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection.back
  10. 19J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection.back
  11. 10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  12. 8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  13. 7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
  14. 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  15. 12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  16. 5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  17. 6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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