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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Non-renewable groundwater, share of natural water supply

62%

Down from 68% in 2022. Agriculture was the largest user at 12,298 million m³.

Reported2023GASTAT via press13

ENE · Energy

Gas share of electricity generation

63%

Oil gave 35%; solar and wind 2%. Gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024.

Reported2024UMD3

FOO · Food

Cereal import requirement, forecast

15million t

More than 10% above the five-year average; wheat 4 million t, barley 5 million t, maize 4 million t.

Reported2026/27FAO GIEWS5

HLT · Health

Deaths reported during the Hajj

1,301people

The Health Minister said 83% were unauthorised pilgrims who had walked long distances in the sun.

Reported2024Ministry via press11

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in protected areas

18.1%

Marine protected areas 6.49%, against 30% on land and sea by 2030. Later press figures differ.

Reported2024NCW via press20

SYS · Cross-system

Oil and oil products, share of main products and exports

69%

Real GDP growth is projected at 1.7% in 2026 after 4.6% in 2025.

Reported2025–2026IMF6

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATNon-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply; desalination supplies the cities; agriculture the largest user.WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENEReported EQL 3
ENEGas and oil gave 98% of 2024 electricity; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.ENE → WAT, HLTReported EQL 4
FOOCereal imports forecast at 15 million t for 2026/27; wheat harvest about 1.1 million t.FOO ← TRD, WATReported EQL 4
HLT1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj; life expectancy 78.8 years in 2024.HLT ← CLIReported EQL 3
BIOProtected land 18.1% and sea 6.49% in 2024; over 80% of land is desert.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIWarming of about 0.6 °C a decade, 1978–2019; flash floods and dust storms.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFDesalination, grid and transport networks; condition and redundancy not bound.INF → allExpert input EQL 2
FINOil and products 69% of exports; public debt 31.8% of GDP in 2025.FIN ← TRD, CLIReported EQL 4
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and industrial demand for power and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
MINMining and materials supply chains not bound for this edition.MIN ← TRDExpert input EQL 2
TRDOil and products are the main export; grain and feed are imported.TRD → allReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound heat, water and supply stresssummer peak; mass gatheringPARTIAL
GS-01Waternon-renewable groundwater; desalination13aquifer drawdown; plant outagePARTIAL
GS-02Energygas and oil 98% of electricity38peak demand; fuel supplyPARTIAL
GS-03Foodcereal imports 15 million t5import and price shocksPARTIAL
GS-04Healthheat illness; mass gatherings11heat surge; care capacityPARTIAL
GS-05Financeoil 69% of exports6oil price and revenue shockGOOD
GS-06Developmentyoung, growing population2service demandTHIN
GS-07Climatewarming about 0.6 °C a decade17heat and flash floodPARTIAL
GS-08Disasterflash floods, dust storms1023urban floodingTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuredesalination and grid2single points of failureTHIN
GS-10Citiesrapid urban growth2urban flooding and heatTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityprotected areas 18.1% on land20condition outside reservesTHIN
GS-12Earth observationnational observing networkcontinuityTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not yet mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyVision 2030; second NDC224coordination across ministriesPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed climate and water research1517translation to regionsPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
  2. 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
  3. 5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  4. 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  5. 20National Center for Wildlife (ed.), Protected Areas System Plan, launched at the 10th Regional Conservation Forum of IUCN, Riyadh, September 2024, as summarised in press reports. Observation year 2024.back
  6. 6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back
  7. 8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  8. 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  9. 17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back
  10. 10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  11. 23United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (ed.), COP16 Riyadh: sand and dust storm monitoring initiative, announced 11 December 2024. UNCCD, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  12. 24Council of Economic and Development Affairs (ed.), Saudi Vision 2030. Government of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
  13. 15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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