Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table9 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SAU-CLI-001

    Extreme heat and humidity

    Driver
    warming of about 0.6 °C a decade; hot, humid Gulf coast
    Exposure
    outdoor workers, pilgrims, older residents
    Vulnerability
    dense gatherings; outdoor work; limited shade
    Capacity
    midday work rule; health-service planning
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
    Horizon
    seasonal

  2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SAU-WAT-002

    Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

    Driver
    fossil aquifer use; rising demand
    Exposure
    cities supplied by desalination; irrigated farms
    Vulnerability
    a few large plants; limited storage
    Capacity
    Strategic Water Plan 2050; treated-water reuse2
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
    Horizon
    5–30 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SAU-CLI-003

    Flash flood and dust storm

    Driver
    intense rain on sealed urban areas; strong winds
    Exposure
    Jeddah and other cities; roads and airports
    Vulnerability
    drainage built for rare rain
    Capacity
    weather alerts; regional dust-storm warning work23
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-SAU-ENE-004

    Fuel and power supply under peak demand

    Driver
    summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
    Exposure
    power, desalination, industry
    Vulnerability
    gas and oil 98% of generation
    Capacity
    12.3 GW of renewables connected2
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationNOT BOUNDsource: building and land-use registers · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observationEXISTSnational weather statements and a regional dust-storm centre are reported923
Early warningLISTEDweather alerts are issued; their reach and use are not bound43
Preparedness and planningLISTEDheat-stress awareness measures for the Hajj were reported11
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: grain and water reserve data · blocker: not published in bound form
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: civil defence and health-emergency records · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: reconstruction records after the 2022 floods · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDthe second NDC lists adaptation pillars and a 2050 Strategic Water Plan; delivery not bound2
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: social-insurance registers · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: Insurance Authority statistics · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationNOT BOUNDsource: national disaster-management arrangements · blocker: not reviewed
Technical infrastructureEXISTS12.3 GW of renewables connected and large desalination in service27
WorkforceLISTEDinspectors made more than 17,000 visits in summer 2025 to enforce the midday rule12
Research capacityLISTEDpeer-reviewed national climate and groundwater studies exist1517
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  2. 23United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (ed.), COP16 Riyadh: sand and dust storm monitoring initiative, announced 11 December 2024. UNCCD, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  3. 9National Center for Meteorology (ed.), statement that the 2025 climate was moderate, reported in “NCM: Saudi Arabia experienced a moderate climate in 2025,” Riyadh Daily, 30 November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  4. 43National Center for Meteorology (ed.), warning on heavy-rain risk from September, reported in “National Center for Meteorology urges vigilance as heavy rain risk rises from September onward,” Arab News, Riyadh, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  5. 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  6. 7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
  7. 12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
  9. 17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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