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Summer heat peak with a mass gathering

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a hot, humid summer fortnight with record power demand, coinciding with a mass gathering in the west
Analogues
Hajj 202411; Jeddah flood 202210
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → HLT

    heat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers

    Hajj 2024

  2. 2

    CLI → ENE

    cooling load raises peak power demand

    summer peak

  3. 3

    ENE → WAT

    desalination needs power at the same peak

    system link

  4. 4

    WAT → HLT

    water for cooling and drinking is stretched

    system link

  5. 5

    HLT → INF

    care and transport capacity is stretched

    Hajj 2024

  6. 6

    FIN

    costs fall on the public budget

    IMF 2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01 would travel through Saudi Arabia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to healthHeat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers. Analogue or source: Hajj 2024.Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 1
02 Climate to energyCooling load raises peak power demand. Analogue or source: summer peak.Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 2
03 Energy to waterDesalination needs power at the same peak. Analogue or source: system link.Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 3
04 Water to healthWater for cooling and drinking is stretched. Analogue or source: system link.Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 4
05 Health to infrastructureCare and transport capacity is stretched. Analogue or source: Hajj 2024.Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 5

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Saudi Arabia 2026, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01 (2026); Saudi Arabia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  2. 10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Summer heat peak with a mass gathering. In Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Saudi Arabia.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Heatwave

Cooling demand peaks the grid while rivers warm; heat stress fills hospitals and wilts crops.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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