- Saudi Arabia 2026
- Chapter 7
The 2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
7.1Questions for the operational series
- A-01
How would a summer heat peak load power, desalination and health services together, and how much margin exists in each?
INI-SAU-CLI-01 · heat–power–water continuity; first output: dependency graph for two regions.
- A-02
How much of the water supply is non-renewable, region by region, and how fast is it drawn down?
INI-SAU-WAT-02 · groundwater and desalination; first output: supply-source register by region.
- A-03
How much fuel is burned for power and desalination, and what does the 2025 generation mix show?
INI-SAU-ENE-03 · power mix and fuel; first output: generation and fuel table for 2025.
- A-04
How concentrated are grain and feed imports, by commodity and origin?
INI-SAU-FOO-04 · import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.
- A-05
How is heat illness counted among residents, workers and pilgrims?
INI-SAU-HLT-05 · heat and mass gatherings; first output: definitions and counting-rule note.
- A-06
How do flash floods and dust storms affect cities and lifelines?
INI-SAU-CLI-02 · workstream; first output: event register 2018–2026.
- A-07
What would a quantified 2035 emissions pathway need from the power and industry sectors?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
- A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.
7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-SAU-CLI-01 | Heat–power–water continuity | Initiative | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SAU-WAT-02 | Groundwater and desalination | Initiative | A-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SAU-ENE-03 | Power mix and fuel | Initiative | A-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SAU-FOO-04 | Food import exposure | Initiative | A-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SAU-HLT-05 | Heat and mass gatherings | Initiative | A-05 | PROPOSED |
| PRJ-SAU-CLI-01a | Two-region heat, power and water dependency graph | Project | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-SAU-2027-01 | Summer heat peak Universe mission | Mission | A-01 | Candidate |
7.3The pathway
Saudi Arabia is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Saudi Arabia from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.
- 01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
- 02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
- 03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
- 04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
- 05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-SAU-2027-Q1
- 06
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
- 07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
- 08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027
7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
- 01
Mandate
- 02
Core Build · 1 month
- 03
Action · 1 week
- 04
Evidence seal
- 05
Portfolio correction
- 06
Next mandate
| Item | Record | State | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Annual mandate record | PLANNED | after the Q2 2027 alignment |
| F2 | Core Build record | PLANNED | one month before the exercise |
| F3 | Exercise evidence | PLANNED | during the Action week |
| F4 | Decision packets | PLANNED | exercise state only |
| F5 | Proof receipts | PLANNED | scoped to each recorded check |
| F6 | After-action report | PLANNED | within one quarter |
| F7 | Upgrade docket | PLANNED | routed to the Portfolio |
| F8 | Portfolio renewal | PLANNED | Q4 2027 annual edition |
| F9 | Public synthesis | PLANNED | public-safe extracts only |
Mission
- ID
- MSN-SAU-2027-01 · Summer heat peak Universe mission
- Role spine
- Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
- Receiving actors
- to be identified with the mandate
7.5Handoffs and routing
Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.
| Finding | Routed to | Purpose | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 · emissions | public record | reference for the 2027 series | PUBLIC |
| CLI-002 · climate aim | INI-SAU-ENE-03 | power mix and fuel | PUBLIC |
| ENE-003 · generation | INI-SAU-ENE-03 | power mix and fuel | PUBLIC |
| WAT-005 · groundwater | INI-SAU-WAT-02 | supply-source register | PUBLIC |
| FOO-010 · cereal imports | INI-SAU-FOO-04 | import exposure | PUBLIC |
| HLT-009 · heat and Hajj | INI-SAU-HLT-05 | heat and mass gatherings | PUBLIC |
| FIN-011 · oil revenue | INI-SAU-CLI-01 · key F review | fiscal exposure | PUBLIC |
| SYS-012 · compound pathway | MSN-SAU-2027-01 | Universe candidate | CONSORTIUM |
| Class | Where it goes | Who can see it |
|---|---|---|
| PUBLIC | the published edition and its evidence bundle | anyone |
| CONSORTIUM | governed rooms of the national pathway | consortium members under agreement |
| CONTROLLED | need-to-know channels | named competent actors only |
7.6Feeds and signal register
| Feed | Producer | Latency | Feeds into |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weather alerts and rainfall | National Center for Meteorology | real time | CLI findings |
| Sand and dust storm forecasts | regional centre in Jeddah | daily | RSK-SAU-CLI-003 |
| Heat-season work inspections | Ministry of Human Resources | seasonal | HLT-009 |
| Water accounts | GASTAT | annual | WAT-005 |
| Renewable capacity | IRENA | annual | ENE-004 |
| Grain outlook | FAO GIEWS | periodic | FOO-010 |
| Fiscal and growth outlook | IMF | annual | FIN-011 |
Escalation routes
- none · keep monitoring
- research question
- project
- risk object
- quarterly publication
- signal report
| ID | Signal | Corroboration | Systems | Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIG-SAU-001 | Gas generation rose from 224 TWh to 288 TWh between 2019 and 20243 | CORROBORATED | ENE · CLI | initiative A-03 |
| SIG-SAU-002 | Non-renewable groundwater fell from 68% to 62% of supply between 2022 and 202313 | CORROBORATED | WAT | initiative A-02 |
| SIG-SAU-003 | Heat deaths reported in the Hajj of 202411 | CORROBORATED | HLT · CLI | initiative A-05 |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
- 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
- 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back