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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Saudi Arabia has very little rain and almost no permanent rivers. Most of the natural supply is fossil groundwater, and the cities rely on desalinated seawater.

62%

non-renewable share of natural supply, 202313

12,298million m³

agricultural water use, 202313

102.1litres

household use per person a day, 202313

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Groundwaternon-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply, down from 68% in 202213Reported
Storagegroundwater storage fell by about 13 km³ a year in 2006–201615Reported
Desalinationabout 70% of potable water per the national submission; 50% of distributed water per the accounts213Reported
Renewable supplyrenewable water per person not boundFAO AQUASTAT28NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → WAT power for desalination
  • WAT → FOO irrigation from aquifers
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • CLI → WAT heat and rare rain

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • renewable water per person
  • desalination capacity in use

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Gas and oil gave 98% of electricity in 2024, yet 12.3 GW of renewable capacity was connected by the end of 2025 and much more is tendered.

63%

gas share of electricity, 20243

12.3GW

renewables connected, end 20252

57.5GW

renewables tendered2

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixgas 63%, oil 35%, solar and wind 2% in 202438Reported
CapacityIRENA records 12,332 MW of renewables at the end of 20257Reported
Capturecurrent CCUS projects capture 1.3 Mt CO₂ a year2Reported
2025 mixgeneration shares for 2025 not boundelectricity regulator30NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → WAT desalination power
  • CLI → ENE peak demand
  • ENE → HLT cooling
  • TRD → ENE fuel and equipment

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • 2025 generation mix
  • fuel burned for power and desalination

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Saudi Arabia grows little of its own grain and relies on imports for most cereals, so food security is a trade question as much as a water question.

15million t

cereal imports forecast, 2026/275

≈1.1million t

wheat harvest, 20265

0.7%

food inflation, May 20265

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Importswheat 4 million t, barley 5 million t, maize 4 million t forecast for 2026/275Reported
Productionthe 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million t, near the average5Reported
Priceswheat procurement price SAR 1,450 a tonne; food inflation below 1% in early 20265Reported
Import shareshare of food imported and concentration by origin not boundUSDA and customs data45NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → FOO import dependence
  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • CLI → FOO heat and dust

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • import share of food
  • concentration by commodity and origin

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy has risen and the population is young, but extreme heat is a direct hazard for pilgrims, outdoor workers and older residents.

78.8years

life expectancy, 202421

1,301deaths

reported during the Hajj, 202411

9.1%

adults with diabetes, self-reported, 202422

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heat and the Hajj1,301 deaths reported in 2024; 83% unauthorised pilgrims; cause split not given11Reported
Outdoor workmidday work ban 15 June to 15 September 2025; 1,910 breaches found by late August12Reported
Population35.3 million; about 2.8% aged 65 or over1Estimated
Heat illnessnational heat-death and heat-illness series not boundMinistry of Health31NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • INF → HLT transport and care

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • national heat-illness series
  • counting rules for pilgrims and workers

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Over 80% of the land is desert, and protection is expanding on land and at sea, with a 30% aim for 2030.

18.1%

of land protected, 202420

6.49%

of sea protected, 202420

≈4million ha

restoration ambition2

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protectionland 18.1% and sea 6.49% in 2024; later press figures differ20Reported
Target30% of land and sea by 203025Reported
Restorationabout 4 million ha of land restoration and rehabilitation planned2Reported
Conditionnot bound outside protected areasn/aNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT watershed and coastal regulation
  • BIO → FOO fisheries and soils
  • CLI → BIO heat and dust

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • condition outside protected areas
  • marine ecosystem change

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
  2. 15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
  3. 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  4. 28Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT: Saudi Arabia country data. FAO, Rome, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  5. 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
  6. 8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
  7. 7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 30Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority (ed.), Annual Statistical Booklet for Electricity and Seawater Desalination. ECRA, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  9. 5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  10. 45United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Grain and Feed Annual. USDA FAS, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  11. 21Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement that life expectancy reached 78.8 years in 2024, reported by Asharq Al-Awsat, 21 April 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  12. 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
  13. 22General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Health Status Statistics Bulletin 2024, reported by Zawya, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  14. 12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  15. 1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  16. 31Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Statistical Yearbook. MoH, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
  17. 20National Center for Wildlife (ed.), Protected Areas System Plan, launched at the 10th Regional Conservation Forum of IUCN, Riyadh, September 2024, as summarised in press reports. Observation year 2024.back
  18. 25Government of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative: protecting land and sea. Riyadh, launched 2021, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2021.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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