- Saudi Arabia 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Growth in gas generation, 2019 to 2024 | 288 ÷ 224 − 1 | ≈ 28.6% |
| (2) | Non-renewable share of agricultural water use, 2023 | 9,356 ÷ 12,298 | ≈ 76% |
| (3) | Share of residents aged 65 or over, 2024 | 986,505 ÷ 35,300,280 | ≈ 2.8% |
| (4) | Difference between the 2040 and 2030 aims | 335 − 278 | 57 Mt |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SAU-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Saudi Arabia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for region or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 45 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-SAU-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHG emissions | 2021 | 2024 | biennial | next report |
| Population | 2024 | 2025 | annual | annual |
| Electricity mix | 2024 | 2025 | annual | annual |
| Renewable capacity | 2025 | Apr 2026 | annual | Apr 2027 |
| Water Accounts | 2023 | Jan 2025 | annual | annual |
| Cereal outlook | 2026/27 | Jul 2026 | periodic | next brief |
| Fiscal and growth | 2025–2026 | Jul 2026 | annual | mid-2027 |
| Hajj deaths | 2024 | Jun 2024 | annual | annual |
| Protected areas | 2024 | Sep 2024 | periodic | periodic |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | PARTIAL | annual anomaly; heat-illness link |
| Energy | PARTIAL | 2025 generation mix; fuel burned |
| Water | PARTIAL | renewable supply; desalination capacity |
| Food | PARTIAL | import share; concentration |
| Health | THIN | heat deaths and illness series |
| Biodiversity | THIN | condition outside reserves |
| Finance | GOOD | insurance cover |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the Government of Saudi Arabia to the UNFCCC, 31 December 2025. Periodic. Role: binds the 335 Mt aim, the renewable capacity figures and the desalination statement, each as a national statement.
EVD-SAU-001
Second NDC2
Issued by the General Authority for Statistics. Annual. Role: binds the non-renewable groundwater share and agricultural use. The release was read through a press report, so the primary tables are not bound.
EVD-SAU-002
GASTAT Water Accounts 202313
| Dimension | EVD-SAU-001 | EVD-SAU-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | national scope; baseline not published | national accounts; region detail not read |
| Timeliness | submitted December 2025 | about 14 months after the accounting year |
| Revision | periodic | annual back-revision |
| Method transparency | baseline and model not disclosed | accounts method not read |
| External validation | independent assessments exist34 | not bound |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CCUS | carbon capture, utilisation and storage |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| GASTAT | General Authority for Statistics |
| GIEWS | Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture |
| GRACE | Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| IRENA | International Renewable Energy Agency |
| MoH | Ministry of Health |
| NCM | National Center for Meteorology |
| NCW | National Center for Wildlife |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| SWA | Saudi Water Authority |
| UMD | University of Maryland, Center for Global Sustainability |
| UNCCD | United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SAU-HTW-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Regional notes | atlas cards for every region | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, gas share of electricity generation
- Construct
- gas-fired generation divided by total electricity generation
- Unit
- per cent
- Scope
- calendar year, national
- Source
- UMD assessment quoting generation data3
- Revision
- annual back-revision by the data issuer
- Known limits
- Ember and the assessment differ in rounding; 2025 not bound
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
- 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
- 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021.back
- 28Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT: Saudi Arabia country data. FAO, Rome, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 29Saudi Water Authority and Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (eds.), annual statistics on desalinated water production. Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
- 30Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority (ed.), Annual Statistical Booklet for Electricity and Seawater Desalination. ECRA, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back