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Singapore’s risk arrives through imports, heat and the sea

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no planning area.

9 min read2 figures1 table22 notesNR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Singapore’s risk arrives through imports, heat and the sea
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Imported-fuel interruption during a heat-stress period
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Singapore’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Singapore is a city-state of 6.11 million people on 724.8 km² of land, with about US$604 billion of output in 2025357. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a power system that burns imported natural gas, a food system that sources from over 180 countries and regions, and a low-lying island that faces heat, heavy rain and rising seas.

The climate-policy layer is stated with care. Net emissions reported to the UNFCCC were 58.59 Mt CO₂e in 2022, with a projected peak near 61.9 Mt around 2028 and about 60 Mt in 203014. The second NDC sets 45 to 50 Mt CO₂e for 2035, conditional on technological maturity and international cooperation1516. Climate Action Tracker rates the effort highly insufficient in an assessment last updated in August 202418. A carbon tax of S$45 per tonne applies for 2026 and 2027, with a view to S$50 to S$80 by 20302122.

The energy layer is concentrated. Natural gas supplied 93.1% of electricity in 2025 and solar 2.7%8. The IMF reports that over 90% of electricity comes from imported natural gas, and that 26% of gas imports and 39% of petroleum oil imports in 2025 came from countries bordering the Strait of Hormuz20. EMA states a goal of about 6 GW of low-carbon electricity imports by 2035; registered import capacity was 300 MW in 2025913. Reserve margins and data-centre load are not bound1042.

Food security rests on trade. Local farms supplied about 8% of fibre and 25% of protein consumption in 2025, against 2035 targets of 20% and 30%, and food came from over 180 countries and regions27. Water is managed through four national taps: local catchment, imported water, NEWater and desalination. Use is about 440 million gallons a day and expected to almost double by 206525.

The people and place layer is ageing and exposed. People aged 65 or over were 14.2% of the population in 2025 and fertility was 0.97 in 202412. The 2025 annual mean temperature was 28.1 °C with 29 days of high heat stress23. Sea level may rise by up to 1.15 m by 2100, and with storm surge and tide the level could reach up to 5 m above today’s mean26.

This edition therefore reads Singapore’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How much of Singapore’s electricity comes from natural gas? Fuel mix, 2025 (%)

Natural gas supplied 93.1% of electricity in 2025 and solar PV 2.7%; solar reached 4.2% in the first half of 20268.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Natural gas93.1
Others (waste, biomass, imports)3
Solar PV2.7
Coal0.9
Petroleum products0.3

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-01-003

93.1%

natural gas, 20258

2.7%

solar PV, 20258

4.2%

solar PV, first half of 20268

6GW

low-carbon import goal for 203513

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Singapore matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·MODERATE
cooling water		WEAK
little irrigation		MODERATE
drinking water · vector breeding		MODERATE
catchment · reservoirs
ENE EnergySTRONG
desalination · NEWater · pumping		·STRONG
cold chain · logistics · indoor farms		STRONG
facility power · cooling		WEAK
land use
FOO FoodWEAK
wastewater		WEAK
waste to energy		·MODERATE
nutrition · food safety		WEAK
import footprint
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		WEAK
labour		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversityMODERATE
catchment filtration		WEAK
biomass		WEAK
pollination		MODERATE
vectors · urban heat		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    TRD → ENE → WAT

    An import interruption tightens gas supply, then constrains desalination and NEWater.

    Expert input IMF exposure data20

  2. 02

    ENE → FOO

    Power loss interrupts cold chains for food that arrives by sea and air.

    Expert input import dependence27

  3. 03

    CLI → HLT

    Heat stress and rain-driven vector seasons raise demand on care.

    Reported heat days and dengue2359

  4. 04

    CLI → INF → FIN

    Sea level, storm surge and tide reach coastal assets and public budgets.

    Reported coastal speech26

  5. 05

    ENE → DAT

    Power constraints reach data and communications services, a sub-sector that used 6,609 GWh in 2025.

    Expert input EMA table10

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), GNI per capita Atlas method (NY.GNP.PCAP.CD), trade as a share of GDP and food imports as a share of merchandise imports, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
  2. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: land area, population density, forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and agricultural land, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas) and 2024 (other series). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
  3. 7National Population and Talent Division, Strategy Group (ed.), Population in Brief 2025: Key Trends. Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Observation year 2025 (as at June 2025; total fertility 2024). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.population.gov.sg/population-in-brief-2025-key-trends/back
  4. 14Government of Singapore (ed.), Singapore’s First Biennial Transparency Report 2024 (BTR1) to the UNFCCC, hosted by the National Environment Agency. Submitted November 2024. Observation year 2022 (inventory) with projections to 2030. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/docs/default-source/cmd-documents/ghg-documents/singapore%27s-first-biennial-transparency-report-2024.pdfback
  5. 15Government of Singapore (ed.), Singapore’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Accompanying Information. Submission to the UNFCCC, February 2025. Observation year 2035 (target). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-02/Singapore%20Second%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution.pdfback
  6. 16National Climate Change Secretariat (ed.), Singapore submits 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (announcement of 10 February 2025). NCCS, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://nccs.gov.sg/singapore-submits-2035-nationally-determined-contributionback
  7. 18Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Singapore” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 August 2024. Observation year 2030 (target and policy projections). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/singapore/back
  8. 21National Climate Change Secretariat (ed.), Carbon Tax (carbon tax rates and coverage). NCCS, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore; page dated 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://nccs.gov.sg/singapores-climate-action/mitigation-efforts/carbontaxback
  9. 22Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), Written Reply to Parliamentary Question on Carbon Tax, 24 September 2025. MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/latest-news/written-reply-to-parliamentary-question-on-carbon-tax/back
  10. 8Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 2.1 energy flows for electricity generators and Table 2.2 annual fuel mix for electricity generation, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore; tables accurate as of September 2026, 2026 data as at June 2026. Observation year 2025 and first half of 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch02/index2back
  11. 20International Monetary Fund (ed.), Singapore: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/185). IMF, Washington DC, 2026. Observation year 2025 (trade and energy exposure) and 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1sgpea2026001.pdfback
  12. 9Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 2.4 electricity generation capacity by technology type and Table 2.6 installed capacity of grid-connected solar PV systems, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore. Observation year 2025 and first half of 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch02/index2back
  13. 13Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore and Indonesia make substantive progress on electricity imports (media release). EMA, Singapore, 5 September 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ema.gov.sg/content/dam/corporate/news/media-releases/2024/20240905-Media-Release-Singapore-Indonesia-Make-Substantive-Progress-On-Electricity-Imports.pdf.coredownload.pdfback
  14. 10Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 3.2 electricity consumption by sub-sector and Table 4.1 electricity balance, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch03/index3back
  15. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Infocomm Media Development Authority (ed.), Green Data Centre Roadmap. IMDA, Singapore, 2024. The agency page did not render at evidence close. Observation year 2024.back
  16. 27Singapore Food Agency (ed.), Singapore Food Statistics 2025 (media release of 8 May 2026). SFA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.sfa.gov.sg/news-publications/newsroom/singapore-food-statistics-2025back
  17. 25Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), Water (policy page: four national taps, demand, Johor agreement, household use). MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2026 (page), 2023 (household use). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/policies/water/back
  18. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), population ages 0-14 and urban population, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC; database record last updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
  19. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), total fertility rate (SP.DYN.TFRT.IN), infant mortality rate and physicians per 1,000 people, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (life expectancy, fertility, infant mortality) and 2022 (physicians). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?format=jsonback
  20. 23National Environment Agency and Meteorological Service Singapore (eds.), Singapore records wettest ever March and hottest ever June and November in 2025 (Annual Climate Assessment 2025 release of 23 March 2026). NEA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/media/news/news/index/spore-records-wettest-ever-march-and-hottest-ever-june-and-november-in-2025back
  21. 26Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), 2nd Reading of the Coastal Protection Bill: Opening Speech by Minister Grace Fu, 6 March 2026. MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/latest-news/2nd-reading-of-the-coastal-protection-bill—opening-speech-by-minister-grace-fu/back
  22. 59National Environment Agency (ed.), dengue case counts for 2025: 3,990 cases as at 26 December 2025 and 13,651 cases in 2024, as reported by The Star (ANN/Straits Times) from NEA data, published 28 December 2025. Secondary report of the NEA series; the NEA page itself was not opened for 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2025/12/28/dengue-cases-in-singapore-hit-a-seven-year-low-in-2025-amid-global-decreaseback

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Singapore’s risk arrives through imports, heat and the sea. In Singapore Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Singapore’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Singapore.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Heatwave

Cooling demand peaks the grid while rivers warm; heat stress fills hospitals and wilts crops.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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