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Imported-fuel interruption during a heat-stress period

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Singapore’s risk arrives through imports, heat and the sea
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Imported-fuel interruption during a heat-stress period
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
an interruption to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz that tightens imported fuel for power and industry, during a period of high heat stress
Analogues
the 2026 energy price shock described in the IMF record1920; 29 days of high heat stress in 202523
Interventions
none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    TRD → ENE

    imported gas and fuel supply tightens

    IMF exposure data20

  2. 2

    ENE → WAT

    power constraints reach desalination, NEWater and pumping

    expert input

  3. 3

    ENE → FOO

    cold chains and logistics lose power margin

    expert input

  4. 4

    CLI → HLT

    heat stress raises cooling demand and demand for care

    heat days23

  5. 5

    ENE → DAT

    data services and their cooling compete for power

    expert input

  6. 6

    ENE → FIN

    the energy price shock reaches inflation and fiscal support

    IMF19

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01 would travel through Singapore’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Trade to energyImported gas and fuel supply tightens. Analogue or source: IMF exposure data [20].Edition SGP, scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01, step 1
02 Energy to waterPower constraints reach desalination, NEWater and pumping. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition SGP, scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01, step 2
03 Energy to foodCold chains and logistics lose power margin. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition SGP, scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01, step 3
04 Climate to healthHeat stress raises cooling demand and demand for care. Analogue or source: heat days [23].Edition SGP, scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01, step 4
05 Energy to datData services and their cooling compete for power. Analogue or source: expert input.Edition SGP, scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01, step 5
06 Energy to financeThe energy price shock reaches inflation and fiscal support. Analogue or source: IMF [19].Edition SGP, scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Singapore 2026, scenario SCN-SGP-ENE-01 (2026); Singapore 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 19International Monetary Fund (ed.), IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Singapore (Press Release No. 26/253). IMF, Washington DC, 20 July 2026; Board conclusion 15 July 2026. Observation year 2025 (outturn) and 2026 to 2027 (projections). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/20/pr26253-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultationback
  2. 20International Monetary Fund (ed.), Singapore: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/185). IMF, Washington DC, 2026. Observation year 2025 (trade and energy exposure) and 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1sgpea2026001.pdfback
  3. 23National Environment Agency and Meteorological Service Singapore (eds.), Singapore records wettest ever March and hottest ever June and November in 2025 (Annual Climate Assessment 2025 release of 23 March 2026). NEA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/media/news/news/index/spore-records-wettest-ever-march-and-hottest-ever-june-and-november-in-2025back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Imported-fuel interruption during a heat-stress period. In Singapore Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Singapore’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Singapore.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Heatwave

Cooling demand peaks the grid while rivers warm; heat stress fills hospitals and wilts crops.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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