Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

8 min read1 figure0 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Singapore’s risk arrives through imports, heat and the sea
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Imported-fuel interruption during a heat-stress period
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Singapore (Republic of Singapore) enters 2027 as a city-state of 6.11 million people and about US$604 billion of output in 2025, growing 5.0% that year37. Net greenhouse-gas emissions reported to the UNFCCC were 58.59 Mt CO₂e in 2022, and the government projects a peak near 61.9 Mt around 2028 before a 2030 level of about 60 Mt14. The 2035 target is 45 to 50 Mt CO₂e, conditional on technological maturity and international cooperation1516. Natural gas supplied 93.1% of electricity in 2025 and solar 2.7%8. The IMF reports that over 90% of electricity is generated from imported natural gas, that net oil and gas imports are about 7% of GDP, and that in 2025 39% of petroleum oil imports and 26% of gas imports came from countries bordering the Strait of Hormuz20. Local farms supplied about 8% of fibre and 25% of protein consumption in 2025, and food came from over 180 countries and regions27. Water use is about 440 million gallons a day and is expected to almost double by 206525. Sea level may rise by up to 1.15 m by 2100, and with storm surge and tide the level could reach up to 5 m above today’s mean26. In 2025 the annual mean temperature was 28.1 °C and 29 days brought high heat stress23. Flood loss records, health surveillance, nature extent, data-centre load and critical-infrastructure incident series could not be read at evidence close and appear as designed gaps with their source and blocker. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Singapore’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which energy, heat and sea-level shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Singapore baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Net emissions were 58.59 Mt CO₂e in 2022, with a projected peak near 61.9 Mt around 2028. The inventory page gives 55.5 Mt for 2023 as a separate publication.1417

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. The government reports that it is on track for its 2030 NDC. Climate Action Tracker rates the effort highly insufficient in an assessment last updated in August 2024.1418

    Is Singapore on course for its climate goals?Reported

  3. Natural gas supplied 93.1% of electricity in 2025, mostly imported, and registered import capacity stood at 300 MW.8920

    How secure is electricity?Reported

  4. Local farms supplied 8% of fibre and 25% of protein in 2025; food came from over 180 countries and regions.27

    How secure is food?Reported

  5. People aged 65 or over were 14.2% of the population in 2025, and fertility was 0.97 in 2024.12

    Is ageing a health risk?Reported

  6. Water use is about 440 million gallons a day; protected land was 4.6% in 2025; flood and nature series are not bound.52552

    What about water and nature?Reported

  7. The IMF projects 3.5% growth for 2026 and 2.7% for 2027, after 5.0% in 2025.19

    What does the economy look like?Reported

  8. An interruption to imported fuel during a heat-stress period that strains power, desalination, cold chains and data services together. SCN-SGP-ENE-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Net greenhouse-gas emissions reported to the UNFCCC were 58.59 Mt CO₂e in 2022, up from 58.29 Mt CO₂e in 2021 and 53.87 Mt CO₂e in 2020.

Figure S.1Net emissions including land use (Mt CO₂e)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
202053.87
202158.29
202258.59

Source: Biennial Transparency Report14.

The government projects a peak near 61.9 Mt around 2028 and about 60 Mt in 203014. The 2035 range of 45 to 50 Mt is 11.9 to 16.9 Mt below the projected peak (derived, see methods)15. The power sector accounted for about 40% of national emissions when EMA stated its import goal13, and natural gas supplied 93.1% of electricity in 20258, so the power system is the first system to watch.

S.4At a glance

6.11million

population, June 20257

604US$ billion

GDP, 20253

81,760US$

GNI per capita, Atlas method, 20253

100%

urban population, 20251

8,329people per km²

population density, 20245

Not bound

population structure by planning area55

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Singapore’s risk: a 93.1% gas-fired power mix, over 90% of electricity from imported gas, a food system that is 8% local for fibre and 25% for protein, and a coast exposed to sea-level rise.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a power price, a hot week or a food price.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The protection gap is not bound, and the 2035 emissions range and the coastal protection framework point to large investment.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Singapore’s electricity, food, climate and population series are readable now; flood, nature, health surveillance and data-centre series are not.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Singapore’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), GNI per capita Atlas method (NY.GNP.PCAP.CD), trade as a share of GDP and food imports as a share of merchandise imports, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
  2. 7National Population and Talent Division, Strategy Group (ed.), Population in Brief 2025: Key Trends. Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Observation year 2025 (as at June 2025; total fertility 2024). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.population.gov.sg/population-in-brief-2025-key-trends/back
  3. 14Government of Singapore (ed.), Singapore’s First Biennial Transparency Report 2024 (BTR1) to the UNFCCC, hosted by the National Environment Agency. Submitted November 2024. Observation year 2022 (inventory) with projections to 2030. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/docs/default-source/cmd-documents/ghg-documents/singapore%27s-first-biennial-transparency-report-2024.pdfback
  4. 15Government of Singapore (ed.), Singapore’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Accompanying Information. Submission to the UNFCCC, February 2025. Observation year 2035 (target). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-02/Singapore%20Second%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution.pdfback
  5. 16National Climate Change Secretariat (ed.), Singapore submits 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (announcement of 10 February 2025). NCCS, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://nccs.gov.sg/singapore-submits-2035-nationally-determined-contributionback
  6. 8Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 2.1 energy flows for electricity generators and Table 2.2 annual fuel mix for electricity generation, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore; tables accurate as of September 2026, 2026 data as at June 2026. Observation year 2025 and first half of 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch02/index2back
  7. 20International Monetary Fund (ed.), Singapore: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/185). IMF, Washington DC, 2026. Observation year 2025 (trade and energy exposure) and 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1sgpea2026001.pdfback
  8. 27Singapore Food Agency (ed.), Singapore Food Statistics 2025 (media release of 8 May 2026). SFA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.sfa.gov.sg/news-publications/newsroom/singapore-food-statistics-2025back
  9. 25Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), Water (policy page: four national taps, demand, Johor agreement, household use). MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2026 (page), 2023 (household use). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/policies/water/back
  10. 26Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), 2nd Reading of the Coastal Protection Bill: Opening Speech by Minister Grace Fu, 6 March 2026. MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/latest-news/2nd-reading-of-the-coastal-protection-bill—opening-speech-by-minister-grace-fu/back
  11. 23National Environment Agency and Meteorological Service Singapore (eds.), Singapore records wettest ever March and hottest ever June and November in 2025 (Annual Climate Assessment 2025 release of 23 March 2026). NEA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/media/news/news/index/spore-records-wettest-ever-march-and-hottest-ever-june-and-november-in-2025back
  12. 17National Environment Agency (ed.), Greenhouse gas inventory (national emissions page). NEA, Singapore. Observation year 2023 (55.5 Mt CO2-eq as stated on the page). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/our-services/climate-change-energy-efficiency/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-inventoryback
  13. 18Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Singapore” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 August 2024. Observation year 2030 (target and policy projections). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/singapore/back
  14. 9Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 2.4 electricity generation capacity by technology type and Table 2.6 installed capacity of grid-connected solar PV systems, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore. Observation year 2025 and first half of 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch02/index2back
  15. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), population ages 0-14 and urban population, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC; database record last updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
  16. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), total fertility rate (SP.DYN.TFRT.IN), infant mortality rate and physicians per 1,000 people, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (life expectancy, fertility, infant mortality) and 2022 (physicians). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?format=jsonback
  17. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: land area, population density, forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and agricultural land, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas) and 2024 (other series). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
  18. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: PUB, Singapore’s National Water Agency (ed.), drainage, flood-prone area and reservoir records. PUB, Singapore. Source for designed gaps; the agency site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  19. 19International Monetary Fund (ed.), IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Singapore (Press Release No. 26/253). IMF, Washington DC, 20 July 2026; Board conclusion 15 July 2026. Observation year 2025 (outturn) and 2026 to 2027 (projections). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/20/pr26253-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultationback
  20. 13Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore and Indonesia make substantive progress on electricity imports (media release). EMA, Singapore, 5 September 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ema.gov.sg/content/dam/corporate/news/media-releases/2024/20240905-Media-Release-Singapore-Indonesia-Make-Substantive-Progress-On-Electricity-Imports.pdf.coredownload.pdfback
  21. 55UNVERIFIED, not opened: Singapore Department of Statistics (ed.), statistical releases and Singapore in Figures. SingStat, Singapore. Source for designed gaps; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Singapore Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Singapore’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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