Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Singapore’s risk arrives through imports, heat and the sea
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Food
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Biodiversity
    7. 2.7 Water
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Imported-fuel interruption during a heat-stress period
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Net greenhouse-gas emissions reported to the UNFCCC were 58.59 Mt CO₂e in 2022, up from 58.29 Mt CO₂e in 2021 and 53.87 Mt CO₂e in 2020.

Figure 2.1Net emissions including land use (Mt CO₂e)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
202053.87
202158.29
202258.59

Source: Biennial Transparency Report14.

Implication

The government projects a peak near 61.9 Mt around 2028 and about 60 Mt in 203014. The 2035 range of 45 to 50 Mt is 11.9 to 16.9 Mt below the projected peak (derived, see methods)15. The power sector accounted for about 40% of national emissions when EMA stated its import goal13, and natural gas supplied 93.1% of electricity in 20258, so the power system is the first system to watch.

What would move it

The national inventory for 2024 and later, the second Biennial Transparency Report, the electricity mix for 2026 and 2027, and the pace of low-carbon electricity imports would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Net greenhouse-gas emissions reported to the UNFCCC were 58.59 Mt CO₂e in 2022, up from 58.29 Mt CO₂e in 2021 and 53.87 Mt CO₂e in 2020; the government projects a peak near 61.9 Mt around 2028.14

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Singapore’s second NDC sets 45 to 50 Mt CO₂e for 2035, conditional on technological maturity and international cooperation; Climate Action Tracker rates the effort highly insufficient in an assessment last updated 28 August 2024.151618

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    The 2025 annual mean temperature was 28.1 °C, with 29 days of high heat stress and a record-wet March; sea level may rise by up to 1.15 m by 2100 and, with storm surge and tide, reach up to 5 m above today’s mean.2326

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Natural gas supplied 93.1% of electricity in 2025 and solar 2.7%; solar supplied 4.2% in the first half of 2026.8

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Over 90% of electricity is generated from imported natural gas; net oil and gas imports are about 7% of GDP; 39% of petroleum oil imports and 26% of gas imports in 2025 came from countries bordering the Strait of Hormuz.20

2.4Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-FOO-005

    Local farms supplied about 8% of fibre and 25% of protein consumption in 2025, against 2035 targets of 20% and 30%.27

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    Singapore sourced food from over 180 countries and regions in 2025.27

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    People aged 65 or over were 14.2% of the population in 2025, and total fertility was 0.97 births per woman in 2024.12

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    Singapore recorded 3,990 dengue cases in 2025, to 26 December.59

2.6Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Forest covered 21.8% of land in 2024 and terrestrial protected areas 4.6% in 2025, against a global target of 30% by 2030.548

2.7Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-WAT-011

    Singapore uses about 440 million gallons of water a day, expected to almost double by 2065, and holds 106 m³ of renewable internal freshwater per person.625

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an interruption to imported fuel during a heat-stress period that strains power, desalination, cold chains and data services together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Government of Singapore (ed.), Singapore’s First Biennial Transparency Report 2024 (BTR1) to the UNFCCC, hosted by the National Environment Agency. Submitted November 2024. Observation year 2022 (inventory) with projections to 2030. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/docs/default-source/cmd-documents/ghg-documents/singapore%27s-first-biennial-transparency-report-2024.pdfback
  2. 15Government of Singapore (ed.), Singapore’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Accompanying Information. Submission to the UNFCCC, February 2025. Observation year 2035 (target). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2025-02/Singapore%20Second%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution.pdfback
  3. 13Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore and Indonesia make substantive progress on electricity imports (media release). EMA, Singapore, 5 September 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ema.gov.sg/content/dam/corporate/news/media-releases/2024/20240905-Media-Release-Singapore-Indonesia-Make-Substantive-Progress-On-Electricity-Imports.pdf.coredownload.pdfback
  4. 8Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 2.1 energy flows for electricity generators and Table 2.2 annual fuel mix for electricity generation, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore; tables accurate as of September 2026, 2026 data as at June 2026. Observation year 2025 and first half of 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch02/index2back
  5. 16National Climate Change Secretariat (ed.), Singapore submits 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (announcement of 10 February 2025). NCCS, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://nccs.gov.sg/singapore-submits-2035-nationally-determined-contributionback
  6. 18Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Singapore” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 August 2024. Observation year 2030 (target and policy projections). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/singapore/back
  7. 23National Environment Agency and Meteorological Service Singapore (eds.), Singapore records wettest ever March and hottest ever June and November in 2025 (Annual Climate Assessment 2025 release of 23 March 2026). NEA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/media/news/news/index/spore-records-wettest-ever-march-and-hottest-ever-june-and-november-in-2025back
  8. 26Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), 2nd Reading of the Coastal Protection Bill: Opening Speech by Minister Grace Fu, 6 March 2026. MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/latest-news/2nd-reading-of-the-coastal-protection-bill—opening-speech-by-minister-grace-fu/back
  9. 20International Monetary Fund (ed.), Singapore: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/185). IMF, Washington DC, 2026. Observation year 2025 (trade and energy exposure) and 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1sgpea2026001.pdfback
  10. 27Singapore Food Agency (ed.), Singapore Food Statistics 2025 (media release of 8 May 2026). SFA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.sfa.gov.sg/news-publications/newsroom/singapore-food-statistics-2025back
  11. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), population ages 0-14 and urban population, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC; database record last updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
  12. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), total fertility rate (SP.DYN.TFRT.IN), infant mortality rate and physicians per 1,000 people, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (life expectancy, fertility, infant mortality) and 2022 (physicians). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?format=jsonback
  13. 59National Environment Agency (ed.), dengue case counts for 2025: 3,990 cases as at 26 December 2025 and 13,651 cases in 2024, as reported by The Star (ANN/Straits Times) from NEA data, published 28 December 2025. Secondary report of the NEA series; the NEA page itself was not opened for 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2025/12/28/dengue-cases-in-singapore-hit-a-seven-year-low-in-2025-amid-global-decreaseback
  14. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: land area, population density, forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and agricultural land, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas) and 2024 (other series). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
  15. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  16. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), annual freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), safely managed drinking water and sanitation services and current health expenditure, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022 (freshwater), 2024 (water and sanitation access) and 2023 (health expenditure). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC?format=jsonback
  17. 25Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), Water (policy page: four national taps, demand, Johor agreement, household use). MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2026 (page), 2023 (household use). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/policies/water/back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Singapore Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Singapore’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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