Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE

Contents

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Renewable internal freshwater resources per person

106m³

Water use is about 440 million gallons a day, expected to almost double by 2065.

Reported2022World Bank⁶ · MSE²⁵

ENE · Energy

Natural gas share of electricity generation

93.1%

Solar supplied 2.7% in 2025 and 4.2% in the first half of 2026.

Reported2025EMA⁸

FOO · Food

Local farms’ share of protein consumption (eggs and seafood)

25%

Fibre was 8%. The 2035 targets are 20% fibre and 30% protein.

Reported2025SFA²⁷

HLT · Health

Dengue cases in 2025, to 26 December

3,990cases

2024 had 13,651 cases. Post-close, context only: 2,832 cases in the first 43 weeks of 2026³⁰.

Reported2025NEA⁵⁹

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in terrestrial protected areas

4.6%

Forest covered 21.8% of land in 2024; the global target is 30% protected by 2030.

Reported2025World Bank⁵

SYS · Cross-system

Net oil and gas imports, share of GDP

7% (about)

The IMF calls this one of the highest shares in the region.

Reported2026IMF²⁰

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Four national taps; use about 440 million gallons a day; storage and flood series not bound.	WAT → HLT · ENE → WAT	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Natural gas 93.1% of electricity in 2025; over 90% from imported gas.	ENE → all	Reported EQL 5
FOO	Local farms 8% of fibre and 25% of protein; food from over 180 countries and regions.	FOO ← TRD, ENE	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Population 14.2% aged 65 or over; dengue 3,990 cases in 2025; heat series not bound.	HLT ← CLI, ENE	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Forest 21.8% of land; protected land 4.6%; nature extent not bound.	BIO ↔ WAT, HLT	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Warm, wet 2025; sea level up to 1.15 m by 2100; emissions projected to peak near 2028.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 4
INF	Drainage, coast, port and grid condition not bound at public-safe resolution.	INF → all	Expert input EQL 2
FIN	IMF projects 3.5% growth in 2026; protection gap not bound.	FIN ← CLI, ENE	Reported EQL 3
DAT	Information and communications used 6,609 GWh of electricity in 2025; data-centre load not bound.	DAT → ENE	Reported EQL 3
AIC	AI-related manufacturing and trade drive growth per the IMF; load growth not quantified.	AIC → ENE, DAT	Reported EQL 3
MIN	Mineral and metal import dependence not bound.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input EQL 1
TRD	Trade equals 320% of GDP; port handled 44.66 million TEU in 2025.	TRD → all	Reported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound imported-fuel, heat and supply stress	fuel interruption during heat	THIN
GS-01	Water	440 million gallons a day; four national taps²⁵	drought; power loss; sea-level rise	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	93.1% gas electricity, 2025⁸	fuel interruption; price shock	PARTIAL
GS-03	Food	8% fibre and 25% protein local, 2025²⁷	import and local-farm shocks	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	dengue 3,990 cases in 2025⁵⁹	heat; vector seasons; ageing	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	IMF growth 3.5% in 2026¹⁹	energy price shock; coastal costs	PARTIAL
GS-06	Development	GNI per capita US$81,760³	cost-of-living pressure	THIN
GS-07	Climate	projected peak near 2028¹⁴	heat, heavy rain, sea level	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	flood loss records not bound⁵²	flash floods; coastal flooding	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	coastal protection framework in 2026²⁶	asset condition; coastal works	THIN
GS-10	Cities	density 8,329 per km²⁵	heat island; flooding	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	protected land 4.6%⁵	land-use pressure	THIN
GS-12	Earth observation	national weather assessment read²³	continuity	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	incident counts not bound³²	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	carbon tax S$45 for 2026 and 2027²¹	coordination across agencies	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	sea-level and compound-event work³⁶³⁷	translation to practice	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), annual freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), safely managed drinking water and sanitation services and current health expenditure, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022 (freshwater), 2024 (water and sanitation access) and 2023 (health expenditure). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC?format=jsonback
25Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), Water (policy page: four national taps, demand, Johor agreement, household use). MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2026 (page), 2023 (household use). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/policies/water/back
8Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 2.1 energy flows for electricity generators and Table 2.2 annual fuel mix for electricity generation, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore; tables accurate as of September 2026, 2026 data as at June 2026. Observation year 2025 and first half of 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch02/index2back
27Singapore Food Agency (ed.), Singapore Food Statistics 2025 (media release of 8 May 2026). SFA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.sfa.gov.sg/news-publications/newsroom/singapore-food-statistics-2025back
30POST-CLOSE, context only: National Environment Agency (ed.), Dengue cases (weekly counts and active clusters; 2,832 cases in the first 43 epidemiological weeks of 2026). NEA, Singapore; counts to 3 November 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/dengue-zika/dengue/dengue-casesback
59National Environment Agency (ed.), dengue case counts for 2025: 3,990 cases as at 26 December 2025 and 13,651 cases in 2024, as reported by The Star (ANN/Straits Times) from NEA data, published 28 December 2025. Secondary report of the NEA series; the NEA page itself was not opened for 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2025/12/28/dengue-cases-in-singapore-hit-a-seven-year-low-in-2025-amid-global-decreaseback
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: land area, population density, forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and agricultural land, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas) and 2024 (other series). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
20International Monetary Fund (ed.), Singapore: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/185). IMF, Washington DC, 2026. Observation year 2025 (trade and energy exposure) and 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1sgpea2026001.pdfback
19International Monetary Fund (ed.), IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Singapore (Press Release No. 26/253). IMF, Washington DC, 20 July 2026; Board conclusion 15 July 2026. Observation year 2025 (outturn) and 2026 to 2027 (projections). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/20/pr26253-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultationback
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), GNI per capita Atlas method (NY.GNP.PCAP.CD), trade as a share of GDP and food imports as a share of merchandise imports, Singapore. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/SGP/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
14Government of Singapore (ed.), Singapore’s First Biennial Transparency Report 2024 (BTR1) to the UNFCCC, hosted by the National Environment Agency. Submitted November 2024. Observation year 2022 (inventory) with projections to 2030. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/docs/default-source/cmd-documents/ghg-documents/singapore%27s-first-biennial-transparency-report-2024.pdfback
52UNVERIFIED, not opened: PUB, Singapore’s National Water Agency (ed.), drainage, flood-prone area and reservoir records. PUB, Singapore. Source for designed gaps; the agency site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
26Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment (ed.), 2nd Reading of the Coastal Protection Bill: Opening Speech by Minister Grace Fu, 6 March 2026. MSE, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.mse.gov.sg/latest-news/2nd-reading-of-the-coastal-protection-bill—opening-speech-by-minister-grace-fu/back
23National Environment Agency and Meteorological Service Singapore (eds.), Singapore records wettest ever March and hottest ever June and November in 2025 (Annual Climate Assessment 2025 release of 23 March 2026). NEA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/media/news/news/index/spore-records-wettest-ever-march-and-hottest-ever-june-and-november-in-2025back
32Cyber Security Agency of Singapore (ed.), Singapore Cyber Landscape 2025/2026 (publication page, released 30 June 2026; the full report was not read, so no incident counts are used). CSA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.csa.gov.sg/resources/publications/singapore-cyber-landscape-2025-2026/back
21National Climate Change Secretariat (ed.), Carbon Tax (carbon tax rates and coverage). NCCS, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore; page dated 9 July 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://nccs.gov.sg/singapores-climate-action/mitigation-efforts/carbontaxback
36POST-CLOSE, context only: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3. Observation year 2018. Bibliographic record opened through Crossref on 3 November 2026; the article text was not read. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3 back
37POST-CLOSE, context only: K. Ng, G. G. Garner, S. Weeks, P. Hogarth, M. Palmer et al., “Robust Sea-Level Projections for Singapore by 2100 and 2150,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol. 130, 2025. doi:10.1029/2024JC021840. Observation year 2025. Bibliographic record opened through Crossref on 3 November 2026; the article text was not read and its figures are not used. doi:10.1029/2024JC021840 back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Singapore Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Singapore’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SGP-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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