- Singapore 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Singapore’s risk arrives through imports, heat and the sea
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Imported-fuel interruption during a heat-stress period
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Change in net emissions, 2020 to 2022 | 58.59 − 53.87 | 4.72 Mt (+8.8%) |
| (2) | Change in net emissions, 2021 to 2022 | 58.59 − 58.29 | 0.30 Mt (+0.5%) |
| (3) | Gap from the projected 2028 peak to the 2035 range | 61.92 − 50 and 61.92 − 45 | 11.9 to 16.9 Mt (19% to 27%) |
| (4) | Fossil share of electricity, 2025 | 93.1 + 0.9 + 0.3 | 94.3% |
| (5) | Information and communications share of electricity use, 2025 | 6,609.3 ÷ 58,054.6 | ≈ 11.4% |
| (6) | Share of natural gas supply used for generation, 2025 | 392,835 ÷ 452,182 | ≈ 86.9% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-SGP-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Singapore as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for planning area or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-SGP-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 59 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-SGP-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population and GDP | 2025 | read 3 Nov 2026 | annual | annual |
| Net emissions | 2022 | report of Nov 2024 | biennial | next report |
| Electricity mix | 2025 | as at Sep 2026 | annual | annual |
| Climate assessment | 2025 | 23 Mar 2026 | annual | annual |
| Food statistics | 2025 | 8 May 2026 | annual | annual |
| IMF projection | 2026 | 15 Jul 2026 | annual | annual |
| Dengue cases | 2025 | 26 Dec 2025 | weekly | weekly |
| Flood losses | not bound | none | annual | annual |
| Heat illness | not bound | none | annual | annual |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Geophysical hazard | THIN | far-field earthquake and tremor records |
| Climate forcing | PARTIAL | flood losses; haze records |
| Energy | PARTIAL | data-centre load; reserve margins |
| Food | PARTIAL | stockpile levels; import concentration |
| Health | PARTIAL | heat illness; haze; care continuity |
| Water | THIN | reservoir storage; flood records |
| Biodiversity | THIN | nature extent; marine protection |
| Digital | THIN | incident counts; dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the Energy Market Authority; the tables are accurate as of September 2026 and 2026 values are as at June 2026. Annual. Role: binds ENE-003 and the electricity mix figure. The fuel mix uses the output method and the Others category includes municipal waste, biomass and imports.
EVD-SGP-001
EMA Singapore Energy Statistics 20268
Issued by the International Monetary Fund; the Executive Board concluded the consultation on 15 July 2026. Annual. Role: binds ENE-004 and SYS-012 context. The energy exposure figures are the IMF’s calculation from trade data.
EVD-SGP-002
| Dimension | EVD-SGP-001 | EVD-SGP-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | national totals by fuel | national macro and trade exposure |
| Timeliness | within the year after the period | published within weeks of Board conclusion |
| Revision | prior values revised in later editions | revised per consultation |
| Method transparency | notes under each table | staff report text |
| External validation | compiled from regulator and operator returns | staff analysis of national data |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CAT | Climate Action Tracker |
| CBD | Convention on Biological Diversity |
| CSA | Cyber Security Agency of Singapore |
| EMA | Energy Market Authority |
| IMDA | Infocomm Media Development Authority |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| JMP | Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene |
| LNG | liquefied natural gas |
| MAS | Monetary Authority of Singapore |
| MPA | Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore |
| MSE | Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment |
| NCCS | National Climate Change Secretariat |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| NEA | National Environment Agency |
| NPTD | National Population and Talent Division |
| PUB | national water agency |
| SFA | Singapore Food Agency |
| TEU | twenty-foot equivalent unit |
| UNDRR | United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction |
| WDI | World Development Indicators |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-SGP-ENE-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Planning-area notes | atlas cards for every planning area | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, net emissions including land use
- Construct
- annual national greenhouse-gas emissions and removals as reported for the NDC indicator
- Unit
- Mt CO₂e, as published in the Biennial Transparency Report
- Scope
- calendar year, national, all sectors including land use, land-use change and forestry
- Source
- Biennial Transparency Report14
- Revision
- later inventory publications may recalculate earlier years
- Known limits
- the NEA inventory page gives 55.5 Mt CO₂e for 202317; the two publications were not reconciled and are not joined
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 8Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 2.1 energy flows for electricity generators and Table 2.2 annual fuel mix for electricity generation, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore; tables accurate as of September 2026, 2026 data as at June 2026. Observation year 2025 and first half of 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch02/index2back
- 19International Monetary Fund (ed.), IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Singapore (Press Release No. 26/253). IMF, Washington DC, 20 July 2026; Board conclusion 15 July 2026. Observation year 2025 (outturn) and 2026 to 2027 (projections). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/20/pr26253-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2026-article-iv-consultationback
- 20International Monetary Fund (ed.), Singapore: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Press Release, Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/185). IMF, Washington DC, 2026. Observation year 2025 (trade and energy exposure) and 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1sgpea2026001.pdfback
- 9Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 2.4 electricity generation capacity by technology type and Table 2.6 installed capacity of grid-connected solar PV systems, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore. Observation year 2025 and first half of 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch02/index2back
- 10Energy Market Authority (ed.), Singapore Energy Statistics 2026: Table 3.2 electricity consumption by sub-sector and Table 4.1 electricity balance, read from the SES_tabular workbook published with the chapter. EMA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.ema.gov.sg/singapore-energy-statistics/Ch03/index3back
- 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: PUB, Singapore’s National Water Agency (ed.), drainage, flood-prone area and reservoir records. PUB, Singapore. Source for designed gaps; the agency site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 53UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Health (ed.), national health statistics and heat-illness records. MOH, Singapore. Source for designed gaps; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 32Cyber Security Agency of Singapore (ed.), Singapore Cyber Landscape 2025/2026 (publication page, released 30 June 2026; the full report was not read, so no incident counts are used). CSA, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.csa.gov.sg/resources/publications/singapore-cyber-landscape-2025-2026/back
- 14Government of Singapore (ed.), Singapore’s First Biennial Transparency Report 2024 (BTR1) to the UNFCCC, hosted by the National Environment Agency. Submitted November 2024. Observation year 2022 (inventory) with projections to 2030. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/docs/default-source/cmd-documents/ghg-documents/singapore%27s-first-biennial-transparency-report-2024.pdfback
- 17National Environment Agency (ed.), Greenhouse gas inventory (national emissions page). NEA, Singapore. Observation year 2023 (55.5 Mt CO2-eq as stated on the page). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.nea.gov.sg/our-services/climate-change-energy-efficiency/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-inventoryback