Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Public budgets and markets stress together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy shock, sovereign repricing and nonbank selling
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global public debt, share of GDP | <94 | % of GDP | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Global public debt, projected | 100 | % of GDP | 2029 | Estimated | 1 |
| Global debt, public and private | >235 | % of GDP | 2024 | Reported | 15 |
| Global public debt | 99.2 | USD trillion | 2024 | Reported | 15 |
| Global public debt | ≈ 111 | USD trillion | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Net interest, developing countries | ≈ 995 | USD billion | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Median net interest share of revenue | 8.1 | % | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| LMIC net payments above new financing | 741 | USD billion | 2022 to 2024 | Reported | 3 |
| LMIC external debt stock | 8.9 | USD trillion | 2024 | Reported | 3 |
| Euro area government debt | 88.9 | % of GDP | Q1 2026 | Reported | 7 |
| Euro area deficit, seasonally adjusted | 3.1 | % of GDP | Q1 2026 | Reported | 8 |
| Nonbank share of advanced-economy sovereign holdings | 53 | % | 2025 | Reported | 5 |
| US federal debt outstanding | 40.2 | USD trillion | 30 Sep 2026 | Reported | 44 |
| Japan FY2026 government bond plan | 180.7 | JPY trillion | FY2026 | Reported | 19 |
| Basel Committee members implementing or about to implement Basel III | ≈ 75 | % | 9 Mar 2026 | Reported | 45 |
B.2Global source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- FIN
- ENE
- DEV
- DAT
- CLI
- WAT
- HLT
- AIC
- MIN
- TRD
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Fiscal Monitor1 | multilateral | global | 2025 | semi-annual | public debt |
| UNCTAD A World of Debt2 | UN agency | global | 2025 | annual | interest burden |
| World Bank International Debt Report3 | multilateral bank | LMICs | 2024 | annual | external debt |
| BIS Annual Economic Report5 | central bank forum | global | 2025 | annual | market structure |
| IMF Global Financial Stability Report6 | multilateral | global | 2026 | semi-annual | market risk |
| Eurostat debt release7 | statistical office | EU | 2026 | quarterly | euro area debt |
| Basel Committee45 | standard setter | global | 2026 | periodic | bank rules |
| US Treasury44 | national treasury | US | 2026 | daily | federal debt |
| Ministry of Finance Japan19 | national treasury | Japan | 2026 | periodic | issuance plan |
| IMF Global Debt Database15 | multilateral | global | 2024 | annual | total debt |
B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters
Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.
| Region | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | high federal debt; rating action in 2025 | public debt, bond markets | US Treasury44; Moody’s9 |
| South America | external debt and rollover; commodity revenue | public debt, external debt | regional statistics (not bound) |
| Europe | euro area debt and deficit; bank-sovereign links | public debt, banks | Eurostat78; ECB10 |
| Eurasia | war and sanctions effects on budgets | public debt | not bound |
| Middle East and North Africa | hit hardest by the 2026 conflict in growth | public debt, energy | World Bank12 |
| Africa | external debt service; hidden debt cases | external debt, spreads | World Bank312; press reports30 |
| South Asia | fastest-growing region; energy import bill | public debt, energy | World Bank12 |
| East Asia | very high public debt in Japan; large issuance plans | bond markets | Ministry of Finance Japan19 |
| ASEAN | external debt and bond market access | public debt | regional statistics (not bound) |
| Oceania-Pacific | small states with disaster exposure and thin buffers | disaster finance | not bound |
B.4Regional card: Euro area public finances
- region
- euro area
- public debt
- bank-sovereign
- Systems in view
- public debt, banks, bond markets
- Defining events
- euro area debt of 88.9% of GDP in the first quarter of 20267
- Couplings
- FIN → FIN; ENE → FIN
- Capability evidence
- published stability reviews and quarterly statistics107
- Gaps
- bank holdings of sovereign debt by country; nonbank leverage
- Agenda items
- F-01 · F-02
Debt ratios run from 25.2% in Estonia to 143.5% in Greece in the first quarter of 2026 [7].
DEBT
Spread across members
The seasonally adjusted euro area deficit was 3.1% of GDP, with France at 5.1% and Germany at 3.6% [8].
DEFICIT
A common deficit level
The ECB describes euro area financial stability vulnerabilities as elevated while a geoeconomic shock unfolds [10].
REVIEW
Vulnerabilities elevated
B.5How countries appear in the global edition
Countries enter the fiscal and financial resilience edition through the public-finance chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.
| Card field | What it shows | Source |
|---|---|---|
| WEFH+B state | each core system against peer distribution bands | national edition |
| Couplings | the national dependency matrix | national edition |
| Risk objects | the national risk portfolio | national edition |
| Capability rungs | the national capability ladder | national edition |
| Evidence age | oldest and newest source dates | national source register |
Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme
26national
countries and unions
10regional
clusters
16global
flagship and sector
20frontier
technology reports
How to read a country card
- Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
- Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
- Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
- Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
| Wave | Countries and unions | State |
|---|---|---|
| W0 | Canada | ISSUED |
| W1 | United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland | PLANNED |
| W2 | Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia | PLANNED |
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- DC-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Moody’s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody’s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back