Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Public budgets and markets stress together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy shock, sovereign repricing and nonbank selling
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 fiscal and financial resilience readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading public finances as one connected system. Common causes recur across countries, stress spreads through shared holders and funding markets, and recovery is limited by thresholds such as market access and restructuring speed. Evidence is strongest for aggregates and weakest for holder-level and liability data.
FIN-001 · FIN-006 · DEV-004 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people fiscal stress arrives as higher prices, a delayed clinic or a cut in services. The baseline asks that public debate treat budgets and markets as connected, and keep the cost of interest in view alongside the cost of services.
FIN-003 · DEV-004 · ENE-008
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Interest costs are rising, net payments by low- and middle-income countries exceeded new financing, and market structure has changed235. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-003 · DEV-004
NEXUS
Synthesis
Fiscal risk is well described in aggregate and thinly measured by holder and liability. The 2027 programme should bind holder data, test the repricing pathway and map restructuring thresholds before the next market stress.
SYS-012 · F-01 · F-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for fiscal and financial resilience. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports strategic desks | fiscal chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness | strategic editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
A deficit is financed by a market. The market is made of funds and banks that also hold other assets. Treating public finance and market structure alone understates how a fault in one becomes a fault in both. This edition reads the connection.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Budgets and markets are one system
Nonbanks now hold more than half of advanced-economy sovereign debt, and central banks hold less. Holders that use leverage can sell fast. Fiscal space can shrink before long-run fundamentals imply a limit.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Who holds the debt matters
In developing countries the interest bill is close to USD 1 trillion, and 51 countries spend more on it than on health or education. Net payments above new financing are a flow out of the borrowing country.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Interest is a transfer, and a trade-off
About 75% of members had implemented or were about to implement Basel III at March 2026; later status is not bound at the close. Restructuring processes exist and are slow. Transparency on hidden debt remains a priority.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Rules help, and application is uneven
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 fiscal and financial resilience readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Global risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms36 | Basel Committee | global | ADOPTED 2017 | bank capital |
| Governors and Heads of Supervision release on Basel III45 | Basel Committee | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | adoption status |
| Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries37 | IMF and World Bank | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | debt sustainability |
| Common Framework for Debt Treatments38 | G20 | global | ADOPTED 2020 | debt restructuring |
| Fiscal Transparency Code39 | IMF | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | fiscal disclosure |
| Restructuring playbook and liability management manual14 | Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | restructuring practice |
| Global Monitoring Report on NBFI17 | Financial Stability Board | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | nonbank monitoring |
| Report on the 2023 banking turmoil43 | Basel Committee | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | bank supervision lessons |
Changed since 2024
- Post-close, context only: the Basel Committee reported on 5 October 2026 that nearly all members have announced an application date of April 2027 or earlier16
- The Roundtable issued its sixth and seventh co-chairs reports in April and October 20261413
- The ECB published its May 2026 Financial Stability Review on 27 May 202610
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers fiscal and financial resilience assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the world’s sovereign, fiscal and financial systems and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- official statistics; central bank and multilateral reports; peer-reviewed sovereign debt and banking crisis literature; loss statistics
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinhart and Rogoff, This Time Is Different31 | book | 2009 | framework | financial crises |
| Laeven and Valencia32 | working paper | 2018 | supports | banking crises |
| Diamond and Dybvig33 | journal article | 1983 | framework | runs |
| Blanchard34 | journal article | 2019 | framework | debt and interest rates |
| Kaminsky and Reinhart35 | journal article | 1999 | framework | twin crises |
| Brunnermeier et al.40 | journal article | 2016 | framework | sovereign-bank loop |
| Gennaioli, Martin and Rossi41 | journal article | 2014 | supports | domestic banks and default |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Monitor, April 20261 | IMF | 2026 | supports | public debt |
| Global Financial Stability Report, April 20266 | IMF | 2026 | supports | rollover and nonbank risk |
| World Economic Outlook, April 202611 | IMF | 2026 | context | growth and risks |
| Annual Economic Report 20264521 | BIS | 2026 | supports | fiscal-financial nexus |
| Financial Stability Review, May 202610 | ECB | 2026 | context | euro area vulnerabilities |
| Global Economic Prospects, June 202612 | World Bank | 2026 | supports | spreads and hidden debt |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A World of Debt 20262 | UNCTAD | 2026 | supports | interest burden |
| International Debt Report 20253 | World Bank | 2025 | supports | external debt flows |
| Global Debt Database update15 | IMF | 2025 | supports | total debt |
| Government debt release7 | Eurostat | 2026 | supports | euro area debt |
| Government deficit release8 | Eurostat | 2026 | supports | euro area deficit |
| Debt to the Penny, 30 Sep 202644 | US Treasury | 2026 | supports | US federal debt |
| JGB investor presentation19 | Ministry of Finance Japan | 2026 | supports | Japanese issuance |
| Global Debt Report 202623 | OECD | 2026 | context | sovereign borrowing |
| Budget and Economic Outlook24 | CBO | 2026 | context | US baseline |
| Nat cat insured losses2526 | Swiss Re · Munich Re | 2026 | context | insurance gap |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governors and Heads of Supervision release45 | Basel Committee | 2026 | supports | banking rules |
| Global Monitoring Report on NBFI17 | Financial Stability Board | 2025 | context | nonbank sector |
| Roundtable co-chairs reports1314 | IMF, World Bank, G20 Presidency | 2026 | supports | restructuring process |
| Roundtable questions and answers22 | IMF | 2026 | context | roundtable scope |
| US rating action9 | Moody’s | 2025 | context | rating change |
| Rating actions on France2829 | Fitch · S&P | 2025 | context | rating change |
| Senegal hidden debt reporting30 | press reports | 2026 | context | hidden debt |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank, Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (reformed framework in use from 2018), cited from memory. Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, 13 November 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Transparency Code, 2019, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17FSB (ed.), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2025 (topic page; report published 16 December 2025; the page gives no figures). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Report on the 2023 banking turmoil, October 2023, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: media release of 5 October 2026 and RCAP implementation page (assessment date 30 September 2026; 27 members). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP/18/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H., Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401 to 419, 1983, cited from memory. Observation year 1983. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Blanchard, O., Public debt and low interest rates, American Economic Review 109(4), 1197 to 1229, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C.M., The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, American Economic Review 89(3), 473 to 500, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brunnermeier, M.K., Garicano, L., Lane, P.R., Pagano, M., Reis, R., Santos, T., Thesmar, D., Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and Vayanos, D., The sovereign-bank diabolic loop and ESBies, American Economic Review 106(5), 508 to 512, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gennaioli, N., Martin, A. and Rossi, S., Sovereign default, domestic banks, and financial institutions, Journal of Finance 69(2), 819 to 866, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (page of 14 April 2026; growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; downside risks). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026 (report page of 28 June 2026; chapter titles; fiscal-financial stability nexus). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22IMF (ed.), Questions and Answers on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (page read; began February 2023; co-chairs IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency; supports the Common Framework). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Moody’s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody’s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fitch Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, September 2025, taken from press summaries. Fitch Ratings, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: S&P Global Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, October 2025, taken from press summaries. S&P Global Ratings, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back