Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Public budgets and markets stress together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Energy shock, sovereign repricing and nonbank selling
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
FIN · Public debt
Global public debt, share of GDP
<94% of GDPprojected to reach 100% by 2029.
Reported2025IMF1
FIN · Interest
Net interest on developing-country public debt
995USD billionmedian 8.1% of government revenue.
Reported2025UNCTAD2
DEV · External flows
Net payments by LMICs on external debt
741USD billionprincipal and interest paid above new financing.
Reported2022 to 2024World Bank3
FIN · Euro area
Government debt, share of GDP
88.9% of GDPEU at 82.9%; provisional.
ReportedQ1 2026Eurostat7
FIN · Market structure
Nonbank share of advanced-economy sovereign holdings
53%up from 44% in 2021.
Reported2025BIS5
SYS · Bank rules
Basel Committee member jurisdictions that have implemented or will shortly implement Basel III
≈ 75% of membersstatus at 30 Sep 2026 is not bound at the close.
Reported9 Mar 2026GHOS release45
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through fiscal and financial resilience, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries fiscal and financial resilience risk into each domain.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Utilities and water works depend on public budgets and borrowing; no consolidated series here. | FIN → WAT | Inferred EQL 2 |
| ENE | The 2026 energy shock raised inflation and yields; fuel subsidies add to deficits. | ENE → FIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| FOO | Food and fertiliser prices rose in 2026; fiscal cost of support not consolidated here. | FOO → FIN | Inferred EQL 2 |
| HLT | Health budgets compete with interest in 51 developing countries. | FIN → HLT | Reported EQL 3 |
| BIO | Natural assets and public finance link through disaster and land policy; not consolidated here. | BIO → FIN | Expert input EQL 2 |
| CLI | Disaster losses meet fiscal buffers and insurance; protection data are not bound here. | CLI → FIN | Inferred EQL 2 |
| INF | Public investment is squeezed by interest costs; no consolidated series here. | FIN → INF | Inferred EQL 2 |
| FIN | The core system: public debt just under 94% of GDP, nonbanks hold 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt. | the core system | Reported EQL 4 |
| DAT | Hidden debt and reporting gaps raise spreads; data transparency is a stated priority. | DAT → FIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| AIC | Equity valuations in AI-linked firms are elevated; a repricing could spread to households and budgets. | AIC → FIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| MIN | Commodity exporters have weaker and more volatile fiscal positions. | MIN → FIN | Reported EQL 3 |
| TRD | Energy and trade shocks reach budgets through prices and revenue; chokepoint data sit in sibling editions. | TRD → FIN | Inferred EQL 2 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on fiscal and financial resilience, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | public budgets and markets couple every sector56 | sovereign repricing with nonbank selling | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | utility finance depends on public budgets | deferred maintenance | THIN |
| GS-02 | Energy | energy shock raised inflation and yields4 | subsidy cost and price spikes | PARTIAL |
| GS-03 | Food and agrifood | fertiliser and plastics up about 50%4 | price shocks and support cost | THIN |
| GS-04 | Health | interest exceeds health spending in 51 countries2 | crowding out of health budgets | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance and economy | nonbanks hold 53% of sovereign debt5 | forced selling and funding stress | GOOD |
| GS-06 | Development | USD 741 billion net payments by LMICs3 | refinancing windows closing | GOOD |
| GS-07 | Climate | disaster losses meet fiscal buffers | concurrent hazards and budgets | THIN |
| GS-08 | Disaster | contingent liabilities not consolidated | unfunded recovery | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | public investment squeezed by interest2 | delayed renewal | THIN |
| GS-10 | Cities | local budgets depend on national transfers and bonds | municipal funding stress | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | public finance for natural assets | budget cuts | THIN |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | data for tracking disaster and fiscal exposure | data gaps | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | payment and market infrastructure outages | operational failure at a hub | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | Basel III rules and restructuring processes4514 | implementation gaps | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | sovereign debt and banking crisis science is mature3132 | data at market scale | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP/18/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back