Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the health security baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Health threats cross every line
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Health
    3. 2.3 Biodiversity
    4. 2.4 Finance
    5. 2.5 Development
    6. 2.6 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5High-consequence outbreak that overlaps reduced financing and thin surveillance
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-003

By 27 September 2026 the DRC had 8,116 confirmed cases of Bundibugyo virus disease and 3,924 deaths across seven provinces, and no licensed vaccine or specific treatment exists.

Figure 2.1Bundibugyo virus disease in the DRC, to 27 September 2026
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Confirmed cases8,116
Confirmed deaths3,924

Source: ECDC47. Cumulative confirmed counts with a cut-off of 27 September 2026; the outbreak was still active.

Implication

The count is large and still rising, and the response rests on tools that are not yet licensed. WHO assessed the risk as high at national and regional levels and low at global level in May 2026, and the Director-General found that the event was not a pandemic emergency24. WHO advised against travel and trade restrictions25.

What would move it

Candidate vaccine results, the use of a licensed Ebola vaccine in a research protocol, spread to new provinces or countries and funding for the continental response plan would each move this finding.

2.2Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-001

    WHO adopted the Pandemic Agreement in May 2025; the 2026 World Health Assembly decided to continue negotiating its Pathogen Access and Benefit Sharing annex and to take the outcome to the Assembly in May 2027 or to a special session in 2026.123

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-002

    The amended International Health Regulations entered into force on 19 September 2025, adding a pandemic emergency alert level; 11 of the 196 States Parties rejected the amendments.4

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-003

    Bundibugyo virus disease was declared a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026; by 27 September 2026 the DRC had 8,116 confirmed cases and 3,924 deaths across seven provinces, with no licensed vaccine or specific treatment.2447

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004

    WHO ended the mpox emergency of international concern on 5 September 2025; over 80% of cases reported in the previous 12 months came from the WHO African Region.5

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-005

    An estimated 95,000 people died of measles in 2024, and in 2025 13.5 million children received no vaccine, with 84% receiving a first measles dose and 77% two doses.89

2.3Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-006

    About one in six laboratory-confirmed bacterial infections was resistant to antibiotic treatment in 2023, and 48% of countries did not report resistance data.6

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-007

    Over 60% of emerging infectious diseases reported globally come from animals, and there are over 200 known types of zoonoses.1314

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-008

    Since 2024 and as of 1 March 2026, H5 had been detected in 1,088 dairy herds in 19 US states; the cumulative US human case count is NOT BOUND at the close.48

  4. ReportedEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    The Biological Weapons Convention working group held its seventh session in December 2025 and was still examining a draft final report for the Tenth Review Conference, due in 2027.32

2.4Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    Development assistance for health fell to USD 39 billion in 2025, 51% below the 2021 peak of USD 80 billion, and US financing fell 67%.22

2.5Development

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-010

    The United States completed its withdrawal from WHO on 22 January 2026, ending funding, personnel and participation in WHO bodies.21

2.6Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a high-consequence outbreak that overlaps reduced financing, thin surveillance and missing countermeasures. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 47ECDC (ed.), Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, update of 30 September 2026 (cases up to 27 September 2026: 8,116 confirmed and 3,924 deaths; seven provinces; 63 of 167 health zones; Uganda 20 confirmed cases). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 24WHO (ed.), WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on Ebola outbreak in DRC and Uganda, 20 May 2026 (Bundibugyo virus; not a pandemic emergency; Contingency Fund for Emergencies). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 25POST-CLOSE, context only: WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News 2026-DON607, 13 June 2026 (695 confirmed cases; risk assessment; continental response plan June to November 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1WHO (ed.), WHO Member States agree to extend negotiations on key annex to the Pandemic Agreement, news release of 28 March 2026 (sixth Intergovernmental Working Group meeting, 23 to 28 March 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2WHO (ed.), WHO Member States agree to extend negotiations on the Pathogen Access and Benefit Sharing annex, news release of 1 May 2026 (resumed sixth meeting 27 April to 1 May 2026; seventh meeting 6 to 17 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3WHO (ed.), Seventy-ninth World Health Assembly daily update, 19 May 2026 (decision to continue the annex negotiations; outcome to the Eightieth Assembly in May 2027 or a special session in 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4WHO (ed.), Amended International Health Regulations enter into force, news release of 19 September 2025 (11 of 196 States Parties rejected; pandemic emergency level; National IHR Authorities). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5WHO (ed.), Fifth meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the upsurge of mpox 2024, statement published 30 October 2025 (Director-General determination of 5 September 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 8WHO (ed.), Immunisation coverage, fact sheet (WUENIC estimates for 2025, released 15 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9WHO (ed.), Measles, fact sheet (95,000 deaths in 2024; coverage in 2025; page dated 15 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 6WHO (ed.), WHO warns of widespread resistance to common antibiotics worldwide, news release of 13 October 2025 on the Global antibiotic resistance surveillance report 2025 (data year 2023; 104 reporting countries). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 13WHO (ed.), One Health, fact sheet (Quadripartite; over 60% of emerging infectious diseases reported globally come from animals). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 14WHO (ed.), Zoonoses, fact sheet (over 200 known types of zoonoses; no percentages given on the page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 48FAO, WHO and WOAH (eds.), Updated joint FAO/WHO/WOAH public health assessment of recent high pathogenicity avian influenza A(H5) virus events in animals and people, 18 May 2026 (since 2024 and as of 1 March 2026, 1,088 dairy herds in 19 US states affected; human detections reported in Bangladesh, Mexico and the United States). Food and Agriculture Organization, World Health Organization and World Organisation for Animal Health, Rome, Geneva and Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Biological Weapons Convention Working Group on the strengthening of the Convention, seventh session, Geneva, 8 to 12 December 2025, and draft final report of 1 October 2025, taken from search-result summaries. Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 22IHME (ed.), Financing Global Health 2025, news release of 15 July 2025 (development assistance for health USD 39 billion in 2025; USD 80 billion peak in 2021; US financing down 67%), read through a syndicated release. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 21US Department of Health and Human Services (ed.), HHS Fact Sheet: U.S. Withdrawal from the World Health Organization (Executive Order 14155 of 20 January 2025; effective 22 January 2026), hosted on the CDC site. HHS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Health and its partners

Health gives workforce for operations to infrastructure (0.3), farm labour to food (0.3) and utility workforce to water (0.2).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.42 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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