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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 health security agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 health security edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Health threats cross every line
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5High-consequence outbreak that overlaps reduced financing and thin surveillance
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the health security candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. H-01

    How would a high-consequence outbreak that overlaps reduced financing and thin surveillance spread through health, food and trade at the same time?

    INI-SR08-OUT-01 · outbreak compound loss; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.

  2. H-02

    Where does surveillance leave gaps that let an outbreak grow before it is detected?

    INI-SR08-SUR-02 · surveillance coverage; first output: coverage map.

  3. H-03

    Which immunity gaps coincide with outbreak risk, and how fast do they close?

    INI-SR08-IMM-03 · immunity gaps; first output: gap table.

  4. H-04

    How does drug resistance change the cost and course of common outbreaks?

    INI-SR08-AMR-04 · resistance and response; first output: resistance overlay.

  5. H-05

    Where do human, animal and environmental data meet, and where do they not?

    INI-SR08-ONE-05 · One Health data links; first output: data-link register.

  6. H-06

    Which states and agencies publish outbreak data on a comparable basis?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

  7. H-07

    How do conflict and displacement change the course of outbreaks and the protection of health care?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. H-08

    Which health-security capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    Health-security capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 health-security portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-SR08-OUT-01Outbreak compound lossInitiativeH-01PROPOSED
INI-SR08-SUR-02Surveillance coverageInitiativeH-02PROPOSED
INI-SR08-IMM-03Immunity gapsInitiativeH-03PROPOSED
INI-SR08-AMR-04Resistance and responseInitiativeH-04PROPOSED
INI-SR08-ONE-05One Health data linksInitiativeH-05PROPOSED
MSN-SR08-2027-01Outbreak and financing Universe missionMissionH-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The health security edition reads national health chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National health chapters

    health-security reading in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector editions

    health, food, water, cyber

    PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Health security system model

    the global health system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifelines · SR-03 supply chains · SR-07 food, water and energy

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Health Security Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the health security candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the health security candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 health security annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-SR08-2027-01 · Outbreak and financing Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
HLT-003 · outbreakINI-SR08-OUT-01outbreak compound lossPUBLIC
HLT-002 · IHR amendmentssector editionsinstrument mapPUBLIC
HLT-005 · immunity gapsINI-SR08-IMM-03immunity gapsPUBLIC
BIO-006 · resistanceINI-SR08-AMR-04resistance and responsePUBLIC
BIO-007 · animal originINI-SR08-ONE-05One Health data linksPUBLIC
FIN-009 · aid for healthINI-SR08-SUR-02 · key F reviewsurveillance coveragePUBLIC
BIO-011 · biosecuritysector editionsinstrument mapPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-SR08-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Disease Outbreak NewsWHOper eventHLT-003
Weekly threat reportsECDCweeklyHLT-003
H5 public health assessmentFAO, WHO and WOAHperiodicBIO-008
Resistance surveillance reportWHOannualBIO-006
Immunisation coverage estimatesWHO and UNICEFannualHLT-005
Development assistance for healthIHMEannualFIN-009
Emergency Committee statementsWHOper eventHLT-004

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-SR08-001Bundibugyo outbreak across seven DRC provinces in 202647CORROBORATEDHLT · TRDrisk object RSK-SR08-HLT-001
SIG-SR08-002Aid for health at half its 2021 peak22CORROBORATEDFIN · HLTresearch question H-01
SIG-SR08-003Pandemic Agreement annex not agreed in May 20263CORROBORATEDHLT · DEVresearch question H-02

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 47ECDC (ed.), Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, update of 30 September 2026 (cases up to 27 September 2026: 8,116 confirmed and 3,924 deaths; seven provinces; 63 of 167 health zones; Uganda 20 confirmed cases). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 22IHME (ed.), Financing Global Health 2025, news release of 15 July 2025 (development assistance for health USD 39 billion in 2025; USD 80 billion peak in 2021; US financing down 67%), read through a syndicated release. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3WHO (ed.), Seventy-ninth World Health Assembly daily update, 19 May 2026 (decision to continue the annex negotiations; outcome to the Eightieth Assembly in May 2027 or a special session in 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HEALTHSECURITY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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The sectors behind Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

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Health and its partners

Health gives workforce for operations to infrastructure (0.3), farm labour to food (0.3) and utility workforce to water (0.2).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
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Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.42 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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