Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Health threats cross every line
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5High-consequence outbreak that overlaps reduced financing and thin surveillance
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 health security readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading health security as one connected system. Common causes recur across diseases, outbreaks spread through shared borders and health services, and response is limited by thresholds such as missing countermeasures, funding and surveillance reach. Evidence is strongest for single events and weakest for cross-border data on a common basis.
HLT-003 · HLT-002 · BIO-006 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people a health threat arrives as a closed clinic, a missed vaccine or a drug that no longer works. The baseline asks that public debate treat prevention, response and recovery as shared, and keep immunisation and surveillance in view between emergencies.
HLT-003 · HLT-005 · BIO-006
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Aid for health has fallen, large funding needs remain for diseases such as tuberculosis, and emergency funds were small against the Ebola response in May 2026221224. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-009 · DEV-010
NEXUS
Synthesis
Health-security risk is well described event by event and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind surveillance coverage, test the outbreak and financing compound pathway, and map thresholds before the next large event.
SYS-012 · H-01 · H-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for health security. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports strategic desks | health-security chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness | strategic editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Animals, people, food and water share pathogens, and borders and health services decide where they stop. Treating each disease alone understates how a gap in one place becomes a gap everywhere. This edition reads the network.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Health is one network
Emergencies end and new ones begin: the mpox emergency ended in September 2025 and the Bundibugyo emergency was declared in May 2026. Routine immunisation, surveillance and financing decide how large the next one becomes.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Between emergencies is where resilience is built
About one in six infections was resistant in 2023, and rising resistance rarely makes headlines. Missing data for 48% of countries makes the true picture harder to read.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Resistance is a slow emergency
The amended IHR are in force and the Pandemic Agreement is adopted, yet the annex that the agreement needs is not agreed, and some States Parties rejected the amendments. Rules need data, money and trust to work.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Rules are not the same as readiness
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 health security readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Global risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Health Regulations (2005), amendments of 20244 | WHO | global | IN FORCE | alert levels |
| Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.134 | WHO | global | ADOPTED 2025 | pandemic prevention |
| Pathogen Access and Benefit Sharing annex2 | WHO | global | UNDER NEGOTIATION | sample and benefit sharing |
| Biological Weapons Convention35 | United Nations | global | IN FORCE | weapons ban |
| One Health Joint Plan of Action 2022 to 202615 | FAO, UNEP, WHO, WOAH | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | One Health |
| Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance7 | WHO | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | resistance |
| Political declaration on antimicrobial resistance44 | United Nations | global | ADOPTED 2024 | resistance targets |
| WHO Laboratory Biosafety Manual42 | WHO | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | laboratory biosafety |
| ISO 35001 biorisk management43 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | biorisk |
| Terrestrial Animal Health Code45 | WOAH | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | animal health |
| International Health Regulations (2005), original text36 | WHO | global | IN FORCE | baseline obligations |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers health security assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the world’s health security, One Health and biosecurity systems and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- WHO and agency notices; outbreak updates; peer-reviewed emergence literature; burden and financing statistics
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones et al.39 | journal article | 2008 | framework | emerging disease drivers |
| Allen et al.40 | journal article | 2017 | supports | zoonotic hotspots |
| Carlson et al.41 | journal article | 2022 | framework | virus sharing and climate |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPMB 2026 report16 | GPMB | 2026 | supports | six emergencies in a decade |
| Global antibiotic resistance surveillance report 20256 | WHO | 2025 | supports | resistance share |
| Fifth mpox Emergency Committee statement5 | WHO | 2025 | supports | mpox emergency end |
| Disease Outbreak News2526 | WHO | 2026 | supports | Ebola Bundibugyo counts |
| One Health joint plan of action15 | FAO, UNEP, WHO, WOAH | 2022 | context | One Health tracks |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financing Global Health 202522 | IHME | 2025 | supports | aid for health |
| Antimicrobial resistance burden30 | GRAM and IHME | 2024 | context | resistance deaths |
| Excess mortality estimate20 | WHO | 2022 | supports | COVID-19 excess deaths |
| Tuberculosis fact sheet12 | WHO | 2025 | supports | tuberculosis burden |
| Tracking development assistance for health46 | IHME and Lancet | 2025 | context | aid for health series |
| Pandemic Fund summary31 | World Bank and WHO | 2026 | context | pooled financing |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Health Regulations (2005), as amended436 | WHO | 2025 | supports | alert levels |
| Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.134 | WHO | 2025 | supports | treaty text |
| Biological Weapons Convention35 | United Nations | 1972 | context | weapons ban |
| Working group papers32 | BWC States Parties | 2025 | context | strengthening the convention |
| Laboratory Biosafety Manual42 | WHO | 2020 | context | laboratory practice |
| ISO 3500143 | ISO | 2019 | context | biorisk management |
| Political declaration on resistance44 | United Nations | 2024 | context | resistance targets |
| Terrestrial Animal Health Code45 | WOAH | 2024 | context | animal disease standards |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 22IHME (ed.), Financing Global Health 2025, news release of 15 July 2025 (development assistance for health USD 39 billion in 2025; USD 80 billion peak in 2021; US financing down 67%), read through a syndicated release. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12WHO (ed.), Tuberculosis, fact sheet (10.7 million people fell ill and 1.23 million died in 2024; funding figures). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24WHO (ed.), WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on Ebola outbreak in DRC and Uganda, 20 May 2026 (Bundibugyo virus; not a pandemic emergency; Contingency Fund for Emergencies). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4WHO (ed.), Amended International Health Regulations enter into force, news release of 19 September 2025 (11 of 196 States Parties rejected; pandemic emergency level; National IHR Authorities). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1, adopted by the Seventy-eighth World Health Assembly on 20 May 2025, cited from memory and from search summaries; the date was not read on a WHO page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2WHO (ed.), WHO Member States agree to extend negotiations on the Pathogen Access and Benefit Sharing annex, news release of 1 May 2026 (resumed sixth meeting 27 April to 1 May 2026; seventh meeting 6 to 17 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction, 1972, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15WHO, FAO, UNEP and WOAH (eds.), One Health Joint Plan of Action launched to address health threats to humans, animals, plants and environment, news release of 17 October 2022 (plan period 2022 to 2026; six action tracks). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7WHO (ed.), Antimicrobial resistance, fact sheet (more than 4.7 million deaths associated with bacterial resistance in 2021; 10% reduction target by 2030). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Political declaration of the high-level meeting on antimicrobial resistance, 2024, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO, Laboratory biosafety manual, fourth edition. World Health Organization, Geneva, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 35001:2019, Biorisk management for laboratories and other related organisations. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: WOAH (ed.), Terrestrial Animal Health Code, cited from memory. World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO, International Health Regulations (2005), third edition, cited from memory. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3WHO (ed.), Seventy-ninth World Health Assembly daily update, 19 May 2026 (decision to continue the annex negotiations; outcome to the Eightieth Assembly in May 2027 or a special session in 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5WHO (ed.), Fifth meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the upsurge of mpox 2024, statement published 30 October 2025 (Director-General determination of 5 September 2025). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Biological Weapons Convention Working Group on the strengthening of the Convention, seventh session, Geneva, 8 to 12 December 2025, and draft final report of 1 October 2025, taken from search-result summaries. Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jones, K.E. et al., Global trends in emerging infectious diseases, Nature 451, 990 to 993, 2008, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Allen, T. et al., Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases, Nature Communications 8, 1124, 2017, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Carlson, C.J. et al., Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk, Nature 607, 555 to 562, 2022, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (ed.), A World on the Edge: Priorities for a Pandemic-Resilient Future, 2026 report (reports page read; six emergencies of international concern in the past decade). GPMB, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6WHO (ed.), WHO warns of widespread resistance to common antibiotics worldwide, news release of 13 October 2025 on the Global antibiotic resistance surveillance report 2025 (data year 2023; 104 reporting countries). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25POST-CLOSE, context only: WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News 2026-DON607, 13 June 2026 (695 confirmed cases; risk assessment; continental response plan June to November 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26WHO (ed.), Disease Outbreak News 2026-DON612, 3 July 2026 (1,481 confirmed cases and 454 deaths; one imported case in France). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050, The Lancet, 2024 (1.14 million attributable and 4.71 million associated deaths in 2021), taken from search-result summaries; the article returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20WHO (ed.), 14.9 million excess deaths were associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, news release of 5 May 2022 (range 13.3 to 16.6 million). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: IHME and Lancet authors, Tracking development assistance for health, 1990 to 2030, The Lancet, 2025, published with Financing Global Health 2025, taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: The Pandemic Fund (ed.), funding rounds and projects (US$499.6 million to 20 projects in the third round, February 2026; US$1.4 billion across three rounds), taken from search-result summaries; the site returned an access error. World Bank and WHO, Washington and Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13WHO (ed.), One Health, fact sheet (Quadripartite; over 60% of emerging infectious diseases reported globally come from animals). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8WHO (ed.), Immunisation coverage, fact sheet (WUENIC estimates for 2025, released 15 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47ECDC (ed.), Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, update of 30 September 2026 (cases up to 27 September 2026: 8,116 confirmed and 3,924 deaths; seven provinces; 63 of 167 health zones; Uganda 20 confirmed cases). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: King’s College London and George Mason University, Global BioLabs Report 2023 (51 operating level-4 laboratories in 27 countries and 18 planned or under construction), taken from search-result summaries; the document text was not readable. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back