Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1People and places change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 42 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  3. 3UN DESA (ed.), press release on World Urbanization Prospects 2025, 18 November 2025 (cities hold 45 per cent of the world population; Dhaka given as almost 40 million). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  4. 4WHO (ed.), Ageing and health, fact sheet (60 and over: 1.4 billion in 2030 and 2.1 billion in 2050; 80 and over 426 million in 2050; baseline 1 billion in 2020; page also gives two thirds and 80 per cent for the share in low- and middle-income countries). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  5. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7UNFPA (ed.), State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis (survey of 14 countries; 39 per cent cite financial limitations; nearly 20 per cent expect to have fewer children than they want). United Nations Population Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  8. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  12. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  13. 13Statistics Korea (ed.), first quarter 2025 births (total fertility rate 0.82 against 0.77 a year earlier; 65,022 births), read in a news report of 28 May 2025; the agency release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  14. 14UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024 (publication record, 16 June 2025; states a new record by the end of 2024; no totals on the page read). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  15. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  16. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  17. 17WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health, fact sheet (99 per cent of people above guideline levels; 4.2 million deaths; 2019 data). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  18. 18UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  19. 19UN DESA (ed.), International Migrant Stock 2024 (dataset page; 233 countries and areas; 1990 to 2024; totals not on the page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  20. 20Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition (EU population 451 million on 1 January 2025; about 3.6 million births in 2024; fertility 1.34; 22 per cent aged 65 and over). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  21. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  22. 22WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  23. 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950 to 2021, with forecasts to 2100, The Lancet 403, 2057 to 2099, 2024 (global rate 2.23 in 2021, about 1.83 in 2050 and about 1.59 in 2100), taken from search-result summaries; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024, June 2025 (123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024; 73.5 million internally displaced; 42.7 million refugees), taken from search-result summaries; the report page returned an access error. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (83.4 million internally displaced at the end of 2024; 45.8 million new displacements by disasters in 2024), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Clement, V. et al., Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration, World Bank, 2021 (up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050), taken from search-result summaries; the World Bank pages returned not found. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics Korea (ed.), 2024 and 2025 birth statistics (total fertility rate 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025, preliminary), taken from search-result summaries of news reports. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOM (ed.), World Migration Report 2024. International Organization for Migration, Geneva, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 6, Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to extreme heat, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Seto, K.C., Güneralp, B. and Hutyra, L.R., Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, 2012, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities, indicators for city services and quality of life, with the related ISO 37122 and 37123, cited from memory; the ISO page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951, and its 1967 Protocol, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1951. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Union, Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-11
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 human systems edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
SR-11NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-STR-SR-11-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

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ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. SR-11 edition Reports Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-11 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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