Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Shared spaces change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5High seas treaty implementation and the first protected areas
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The ocean, the poles, the high seas and orbit are spaces that no single state governs. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows the same mechanisms at work across them. Arctic sea ice reached its lowest winter maximum in the 47-year satellite record in March 2025 and the tenth lowest September minimum, 4.60 million km², that year13. Arctic air temperatures from October 2024 to September 2025 were the highest since records began in 19003. Global mean sea level stands 115.2 mm above its 1993 level and is rising at about 4.4 mm a year6. A report from more than 160 scientists judged in October 2025 that warm-water coral reefs are passing their thermal tipping point9, and seven of nine planetary boundaries are assessed as breached, ocean acidification among them10. Governance is moving at different speeds. The high seas treaty entered into force on 17 January 202611, the WTO fisheries subsidies agreement entered into force on 15 September 202512, and the IMO adjourned its net-zero framework for shipping by a vote of 57 to 4941. Deep seabed rules remain open at the International Seabed Authority while a national licensing review proceeds in the United States4215. This baseline reads these events as mechanisms, not as a list. It ranks no state, takes no position on any claim and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the ocean and polar commons baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Yes: warming drives ice loss, sea level, reef stress and acidification together.36910

    Do commons change from common causes?Reported

  2. Through ice loss to sea level, and through heat and carbon to reefs and fish.569

    How do changes spread?Reported

  3. Air temperature in the 2025 report year was the highest since 1900.3

    Is the Arctic changing fast?Reported

  4. About 4.4 mm a year, nearly double the early satellite rate.56

    How fast is sea level rising?Reported

  5. About 62% of assessed stocks are; 73% of landings come from them.21

    Are fish stocks sustainable?Reported

  6. About 1.45% is covered; the treaty is in force.1116

    Is the high seas protected?Reported

  7. Some entered into force; others were adjourned or are unfinished.124115

    Do rules keep pace?Reported

  8. Whether treaty rules start to change protection on the high seas. SCN-SR12-HSP-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

Global mean sea level is 115.2 mm above its 1993 level and rising at about 4.4 mm a year, and WMO reports the long-term rate nearly doubled from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025.

Figure S.1Rate of global mean sea level rise, mm a year
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
2016 to 2025 average4.1
1993 to 2002 average2.1

Source: WMO5. The NASA page gives 4.4 mm a year for the current rate6; the two use different periods.

Sea level responds to ocean heat and ice loss over decades. A faster rate means coastal exposure grows even if emissions fall, and it ties the ice, ocean and coastal systems into one chain56.

S.4At a glance

115.2mm

sea level rise since 19936

4.60million km²

Arctic minimum, Sep 20251

129billion tons

Greenland loss, 20253

62.4%

stocks sustainable21

1.45%

high seas protected16

123members

accepted fisheries subsidies rules12

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading the commons as linked spaces.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the ocean arrives as a coast, a plate of fish or a news image of melting ice.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Sea level, reef and fish evidence show where finance-readiness evidence will matter.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The commons are well described by physical series and thinly measured by use.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s oceans, polar regions and global commons and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a sovereignty position, a boundary view, a legal opinion, a comparison of states or a recommendation on any treaty, licence or mining decision. Governance of shared spaces rests with states and the bodies they have created.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 ocean and polar commons edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1NSIDC (ed.), Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for 2025 (Sea Ice Today analysis, relayed by CIRES; minimum 4.60 million km² on 10 September 2025; tenth lowest in the 47-year record). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3NOAA (ed.), Arctic Report Card 2025 (summary page; air temperature, sea ice, precipitation and Greenland ice sheet findings). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6NASA (ed.), Global Mean Sea Level (key indicator page; 115.2 mm rise since 1993; current rate 4.4 mm a year). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9National Oceanography Centre (ed.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals first Earth system tipping point reached (summary page; warm-water reefs passing their thermal tipping point, central estimate 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C, warming about 1.4 °C; more than 160 scientists at 87 institutions). NOC, Southampton. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached (Planetary Health Check 2025 news page of 24 September 2025; ocean acidification breached for the first time; surface pH down about 0.1 units). Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (status page, UN Treaty Collection; entry into force 17 January 2026; 145 signatories and 105 parties as shown on the page when read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12WTO (ed.), Acceptances of the Protocol Amending the Marrakesh Agreement, Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (acceptance list; entry into force 15 September 2025; 123 acceptances; latest date shown 20 July 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 41Herbert (ed.), MEPC ES2 Meeting Brief (law-firm briefing page dated 2026-01-20; adjournment of the Net-Zero Framework session by a vote of 57 in favour, 49 against and 21 abstentions after a one-year adjournment motion; opened as a pre-close source for [13]). Herbert, law-firm briefing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 42NOAA (ed.), NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application (news release of 19 August 2026; application submitted 6 February 2026; found in full compliance with the information requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act; opened as a pre-close source for [14]). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15International Seabed Authority (ed.), 31st Session 2026 (session page; Council part I 9 to 19 March 2026 and part II 13 to 24 July 2026; decision titles on exploitation rules and contract extensions; decision texts not read). ISA, Kingston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5WMO (ed.), 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record (update for COP30; sea level rate from 2.1 mm a year in 1993 to 2002 to 4.1 mm a year in 2016 to 2025; over 90% of excess energy in the ocean). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21Marine Stewardship Council (ed.), Five takeaways from the FAO SOFIA report 2026 (summary page of 19 June 2026; 62.4% of stocks sustainable against 64.5% two years earlier; 72.6% of landings from sustainable stocks; 235 million tonnes produced in 2024; trade USD 184 billion). MSC, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 16UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet, marine protected areas page (areas beyond national jurisdiction 61% of the ocean; 1.45% covered by protected areas and other effective area-based measures). UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-COMMONS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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